Peter Marteka

❄️ High level thoughts about this upcoming winter: Winter Outlook 2026–27 These ideas are always a roll of the dice. So let’s roll ‘em… here’s my current thinking… This winter is shaping up to be an interesting one. A very strong El Niño is building in the Pacific, and it could end up one of the strongest on record. That will be the main driver of our pattern. Strong El Niño winters tend to have an active southern jet stream, which sends a steady parade of storms out of the south and up the coast. So I expect above-average precipitation this winter. Many are calling for a mild, less snowy winter - but it's a lot more complex than that. In the short term, there is a lot of buzz about the polar vortex. Models are showing it weakening to record-weak levels for early November. If that plays out, we may see cold air get into the Northeast later in November, maybe around Thanksgiving, and into early December. An early-season snow event wouldn't be out of the question. December is more uncertain. I lean toward warming later in December as we approach the holidays, since strong El Niño Decembers tend to run mild here, so the odds of a white Christmas may be lower this year. But an early disruption of the polar vortex like this one could flip that and give us a colder, more wintry December. So I'll be watching that one closely. Overall I expect temperatures to be above normal this winter. But they will generally be up and down, with colder spells mixed in with warmer spells. That means we will have plenty of opportunities for snow, but this can go either way. We are less likely to see a winter with sustained cold where the snowpack builds storm after storm. More likely, and as is typically the case, our snow totals will come down to a few bigger storms and whether or not they hit. I also think this winter may be back-loaded. El Niño winters tend to favor disruptions of the polar vortex in mid-winter. So February into early March may be our best window for colder air and snow after a potentially milder spell in January. Finally, we will have to watch for more mixed-precipitation events close to the shoreline of Southern New England. With southern-stream storms tracking near the coast and ocean waters running warm, the rain/snow line could set up right along the shore in many of these storms. Inland areas will have the better shot at staying all snow. Stay tuned. I'll update as the pattern evolves. And my caveat…these seasonal "forecasts" are always low confidence and more for entertainment purposes! 😊 But you all always ask for my thoughts on winter and now you have them.