Political Analysis

ALT Dot plot of each country's contribution to the estimated effect of nonviolent campaign duration on democratic survival, ranked from largest to smallest. South Africa stands far above the rest at about 0.35. Spain, Chile, Argentina and Estonia follow at about 0.1 to 0.2. Most countries make small positive contributions near zero. A few at the bottom pull in the opposite direction, with Guatemala the most negative, followed by Somalia, South Korea and Greece.

ALT Two coefficient plots showing each outreach method's effect on volunteer sign-ups compared with the control group (email, call and email, call). A dashed line marks zero. Top, by gender: email effects sit near zero for both studies, while calls and call-plus-email are positive for both men and women. Bottom, by age: email effects again sit near zero, while calls and call-plus-email are positive for every age group, and largest for members aged 35 and under in both studies.

ALT Three-panel bar chart for the ANES question "How satisfied are you with life?" Top: life satisfaction by how much respondents liked the interview. Those who liked it more report higher satisfaction, and those who disliked it report lower satisfaction. Middle: raw, survey-weighted, and corrected estimates at 50%, 65% and 80% nonresponse. As nonresponse rises, "extremely" and "very satisfied" shrink while "slightly satisfied" and "not satisfied at all" grow. Bottom: at 65% nonresponse, estimated nonrespondents are much more often "slightly" or "not satisfied at all" than respondents.

ALT Flowchart of the study design in four steps, left to right. 1: A Facebook-style campaign ad showing an AI-generated portrait of a smiling woman, with neutral text asking for an endorsement in exchange for a window sticker. 2: A prompt asking the model to write a caption for the candidate and pick a political view from very conservative to very liberal. 3: The model's caption, a campaign message about a brighter future that says the candidate leans liberal. 4: A bar chart of ideology labels across five categories, from very conservative to very liberal, with an arrow pointing to the liberal bar.

ALT Three-step workflow using a Chula Vista city council meeting record from June 10, 2014. Step 1: agenda items on a page are hand-labeled with boxes in Label Studio. Step 2: a trained object detection model finds similarly formatted items on a new page. Step 3: LayoutParser and OCR extract the text from each box.

ALT Chart of estimated seat-share effects for 308 coalition governments, each with a 95% confidence interval, ordered from smallest to largest. A band shows the single estimate from a standard OLS model for comparison. Many governments fall well below that band, and a few fall above it.

ALT Chart comparing three models fitted on data where X runs from -3 to 1, then extended out to X = 3. Blue is a Gaussian process, red is KRLS, gray is a quadratic polynomial. The solid line is the true function and the shaded bands are 95% intervals. Past the data's edge, the Gaussian process band widens while the KRLS band narrows.

ALT Chart of the estimated probability that respondents chose the college-educated immigrant over one with no formal education, shown for each of 16 contexts defined by the immigrants' other traits, with 95% credible intervals. Every estimate is above 50%, ranging from below 65% to above 75%. The contexts with the highest and lowest estimates are highlighted in red.

ALT Diagram of the multilevel structure of coalition governments in Israel, 2001 to 2011, linking three governments to the parties that served in them. Parties appear in more than one government and each government contains several parties, creating a crisscrossing pattern between parties and governments.

ALT Heatmap from the U.S. General Social Survey showing how strongly shifts in six attitudes carry forward over time: ideological identification, military spending, welfare, immigrants, party identification, and environment. Rows show where a shift starts. The darkest cells are mostly on the diagonal, each attitude affecting itself. Most cells between different attitudes are pale or yellow (not statistically significant), with party identification to ideological identification among the stronger links.