@prealvalueadd

Real Estate Developer. Residential property portfolio, 20 prop/140mn/25’000 m2. London city focused since 2022 with 2 projects underway

Joined August 2018
You know what’s lame? People hiding their reading and online status on WhatsApp. I said it
6
Called reception at the Radisson Leicester Square this morning to arrange a black cab. The person answering had never heard of a black cab. A hotel. In central London. After a minute explaining what one was, I gave up. 😂
25
#Germany is the new Detroit. Buckle up
39
Just read the economist article “prepare for a world of ad hoc coalitions” by #markcarney and #alexanderstubb and it left me underwhelmed. Middle powers unite feels hollow given the vassal status of both Canada and Finland. Sorry, but not sorry. Both should take a chapter from #zlatan playbook and just tell things how they are instead
32
1/11 I've been thinking about London property as a long-term investment. Here's the case for why the bull thesis essentially closes itself, regardless of which economic scenario plays out. --- 2/11 Start with the UK economy. GDP per capita is already declining. The private sector entered a technical recession in H2 2025. Business investment is collapsing. And demographics make this structural, not cyclical. By 2050, just 2 workers will support every pensioner. The tax base is shrinking. --- 3/11 The Bank of England is trapped. Rates are at 3.75% — the highest in the G7. They need to cut to stimulate growth. But energy-driven inflation won't let them. So the question isn't IF rates fall dramatically. It's when. And when they do — near zero becomes very possible. --- 4/11 Here's where it gets interesting. Construction costs won't come down. Labour contracts are locked in — electricians alone have 4-5% annual rises agreed through 2028. Materials sit at a permanently higher baseline post-COVID. Nobody builds if it doesn't pencil out. So nobody builds. --- 5/11 This creates a structural floor under prices. Lower inflation ≠ lower costs. It just means costs rise more slowly on top of an already elevated base. Total construction costs are forecast to rise 15% by 2030. The floor only moves in one direction. --- 6/11 Now run the scenario analysis. Economy collapses badly → BoE forced to cut aggressively → finance becomes near-free → construction still unviable → supply stays constrained → cheap money chases scarce stock → Prices go up. The bear case keeps closing itself. --- 7/11 Tokyo is the proof of concept. Japan: worse demographics than the UK. Decades of stagnation. Near-zero rates for 20 years. Tokyo house prices still rose 12.6% year-on-year in 2025. Central condos up 64% in four years. New supply? Lowest since 1973. Sound familiar? --- 8/11 But London has structural advantages Tokyo doesn't. → English language — zero barrier for global investors → Common Law property rights — most trusted on earth → Time zone bridges US and Asia → Top 3 global financial centre That status took centuries. It doesn't erode in a generation. --- 9/11 Sterling weakness during a downturn? That's actually bullish for London property. Foreign capital floods in when the pound falls. We saw exactly this post-Brexit. A weaker currency makes London cheaper in dollars, euros and dirhams — and there's no shortage of that capital. --- 10/11 Political risk (Labour taxes, wealth levies) is real but short-term. These affect transaction volumes and cash flow. They don't change the structural scarcity. And any Labour policy gets reversed by the next government. The Green Belt doesn't. --- 11/11 The 30-year view: The Green Belt stays. London's global city status stays. Construction costs only rise. Foreign capital keeps coming. Demographics worsen. Prime London property isn't a housing market bet. It's a position in a genuinely scarce global asset. The bear case needs to find a new argument. 🏙️ #London #Property #Investing #RealEstate #MacroEconomics
92
Sometimes you just want to tell someone “there is something called #ozempic
63
Women - if you are on a dating app, please take these three easy win suggestions to your heart: 1) don’t enhance your photos “much”. When you meet and you are not 95% within what you appeared on your photos, it leaves a really bad taste. And this goes both ways. 2) if you love dogs and whatever, good for you. Most guys are on the app to find a girlfriend, and not see how much you like a dog. I mean, really!?!?! and 3) nose rings. What can I say. Stating the obvious here but if you want to maximize your dating pool, remove immediately. You can thank me later
94
$RBLX buy of a lifetime at these levels
1
154
Leverage is a bitch
47
#Tron on #NFLX is kind of watchable but must win price for worst movie music ever produced
110
If you have a dog as your first #Tinder picture, I can’t help you. At least lead with a human side
2
176
If you are looking for “a friend” on Tinder and complain you can’t find a partner - I can’t help you. Sorry
1
136
After 16 months of business partner struggles, and the past 7 months sole communication through our lawyers. I’m please to say I am finally rid of the biz partner. Jesus, it was a painful ride but it’s over now. I bought him out. Now in full control. Unless I fail miserably, I will never go back to a 50-50 or minority position.
1
154
London real estate market just had the worst March and April sales in the past 17 years. Ready for bounce
1
86
I can’t anymore. Love longevity and fitness, past of my life, but also have a non-healthy streak like most of us. So many tips and tricks how to live and not. Easy to lose the big picture. Am a big believer in genetics, we can probably move the needle within our set range but that’s it. It’s like a pro athlete or someone math smart. If a random person does exactly the same, will they be equally athletic or equally smart? I don’t think so
1
72
How can developers build houses in #UK generally and #London specifically if councils are broke or close to broke and cannot answer simple questions or more seriously not discharge planning conditions in time? What they do is extort the developers into paying for a dedicated resource (PPA agreement). Once paid, they continue to be disengaged. Very challenging business climate
1
50
Sweden lost against Finland at #melodifestivalen. Last year we lost against #markusandmaetinus. from Norway. Complete joke. All Swedes can go f themselves at these results
1
258
Top management at $GOLD should all get the sack today. Terrible value creation during the last 5 years while the underlying gold price doubled. Puzzling and disappointing
2
73
#UK real estate market got whacked in the latest budget. It’s very cool right now. Many talk about 2025 to get busy, some looking at 2026. Meanwhile, planning applications continues its double digit decline, while population is growing. A supply crunch in the making!
2
82