Our reward campaigns for @Outcomexyz on @HyperliquidX prove that proper incentive design drives REAL action - MMs are taking real risk at spreads 10x tighter than any other prediction market Much more work to be done to bolster depth, We’re only just getting started!

Honest post: the Polymarket DeFi CLOB is full of tech debt. It grew fast, got hacked together, and most of the team inherited it that way. Since joining and building out the team, we have scaled it 10x and made it 3x faster, but it’s not enough; the core foundations of how it’s been built are wrong in almost every way. You try to fix one thing, and another thing goes wrong; the conclusion now is that the codebase can’t be saved long-term. The exchange is the heart of Polymarket; everything runs through it. If we want to be the best exchange in the world, it must be fast, stable, and scalable. We can’t keep patching the old one, where these core foundations are generally missing throughout, so we’re rewriting it from scratch in Rust. Early numbers: 10-20x faster on p99 than today, 200,000 orders per second (15x what we have now, with room to reach 400,000+), and stability under load. This will put us faster than most exchanges, including CEXs. Building it in Rust gives us memory safety with no garbage collector. No GC means no random pauses and no random latency spikes; the tail latency in the benchmarks is the tail latency you get in production, alongside a strict compiler that enforces correctness up front. Data races and memory corruption (the bugs that take exchanges down) can’t exist in the first place. Polymarket has to take it seriously that we are an exchange; this is people’s money, not a joke. To succeed, we have to fix this; otherwise, we will fail. It’s as simple as that. I joined to build the best software in the world, not to maintain some of the worst, and I will do everything I can to make Polymarket a serious exchange. We are aiming to have the exchange ready sometime in Q4 (mid to end). I'll communicate progress as we go so you all know the status. Breaking changes will be minimal for all integrators and will be communicated in advance. We will maintain the existing CLOB and keep trying to improve it as we build this side by side. We can’t wait to throw away the existing CLOB; we dislike it as much as you all do. Make Polymarket fast, finally.

1/ Synth's HFT team has found that @Kalshi’s 15-min BTC market is beginning to predict subsequent BTC moves on @binance and all other CEXs. And strength of this predictive relationship has grown materially throughout 2026 (see image). @Kalshi is becoming the venue for BTC price discovery on short time horizons. 🧵

Shit😅 Poly上因为这个亏得最多得冤大头就是我 我最早玩Poly写了一个体育99.9c策略， 其实没啥利润， 风险又大， 但是因为能赚几个小钱就懒得关掉； 这波一下亏大发了， 不过正好让我下决心停掉 我公布出来玩法吧， 你们想搞还是可以赚小钱的（我不想让做这么蠢策略的人因为我的停机赚钱，哈哈😁） 策略内容： 1. polymarket上存在一个tick_size_change的通知， 在这个之前你只能下99c的价格， 在这个之后你能下99.9c 2.利用这个机制， 很多时候事件的结果已经出现了， 比如A队赢了B队， 这个时候你就可以等这个事件出来， 去抢99.9c的位置 策略技巧： 1. 如何抢到队列前面位置呢？按目前poly的机制来看（改过很多版本， 如果你们要做这个策略要自己跟踪）， 就是谁最先下单谁抢到前面的位置———— 因此顶着ratelimit一直下单， 不等ws通知tick_size_change是最好的 2. 如何获取比赛结果呢？ * 你可以通过poly的propose机制来获取， 比如体育比赛， 有人propose A队赢了， 监听这个事件后如果发现tick_size还是0.01， 你就可以进去等待tick_size变化 * 你也可以通过公开网站的体育数据来确定， 比如说espn， nba.com 3. 如何防止下错单呢？ 这个就需要你自己看了

MULTI-MILLION DOLLAR RINSE: Full single-post summary for people with normal sleep schedules of the most insane rinsing of bond bots I've seen firsthand, in which PM bonders appear to have lost 7 figures🤯 Scene: Last MLB game of the night (Giants vs Angels) bottom of the 10th inning tied 6-6. The time is ~1:15am EDT - With the bases loaded, Devers hits what is normally a ground rule double. The initial final score shown is an 8-6 Giants win (due to an official MLB scorer error). Video below in thread - Over 13.5 runs, Giants -1.5, and Giants team total o7.5 runs bond to 99c thanks to bots - MLB rules state that a walk off ground rule double cannot score multiple runs and in this scenario counts as a single instead of a double - People start to realize this and insane action comes in to unbond the above markets. Prices go absolutely haywire, touching 1c and 99c multiple times - Kalshi closes and settles the totals & team totals markets while at least one (if not all) of the listed source agencies (MLB / Fox Sports / ESPN) still showed the final score as 8-6. PolyUS does the same for settlement of Giants -1.5 - However, the Kalshi spread (run line) markets remained open longer. Source agencies had then changed the final score to be 7-6. Market volume on the spread balloons from under 12,000 to 5 million (!) between the start of the bottom of the 10th inning and final market settlement - Despite Kalshi settling the total as over 13.5 based on an 8-6 final score, per their CFTC rules, the spread must now settle Angels +1.5 as a win, and it does - PolyInt settles Angels +1.5 as a win as well, rinsing botters there too and appearing to make the total losses for traders assuming a 8-6 final score "multi-millions" across all exchanges - Sportsbooks all appear to have paid out incorrectly initially as well, but it seems all of them have resettled based on the 7-6 final score. CFTC certified exchanges on the other hand don't quite work the same way as sportsbooks. - I fail to make riches since my 1am brain was staring at just the totals market and didn't notice the spread market had stayed open longer until it was too late - I'm aware of some of the big winners, but am yet to hear who specifically were the big losers on this score adjustment - Kalshi volume on the two "incorrectly" settled markets: 1.1mil on o/u 13.5 runs, ~60k on o/u 7.5 Giants team total. No idea or guess on how much was traded on the PolyUS "incorrectly" settled spread market. I would not expect a refund if you had the wrong side of these markets since the settlements appear to have complied with the sites' CFTC rules, but we'll see TLDR: An official MLB score correction post-game made some grinders rich and rinsed others (mostly botters, I assume). Per the sites' CFTC rules, it appears all markets were settled correctly despite being inconsistent settlements

We won’t launch more markets instantly; our first focus is to grow the existing markets back.

We are in the final stages of finishing TWAP on the crypto markets; it’s taken us longer than we wanted due to a core change from Chainlink and our system. This will go live in early August, and we will then aggressively grow the crypto markets on Polymarket. We are reaching out to builders and market makers soon about the rollout plan.