POLYMARKET DIGEST — 4 NOVEMBER 2026
🔥 News & Announcements
Private Market Valuation Rules Update — Polymarket issued a large-scale bulk rules clarification across all private company valuation markets. Resolution language was standardized: markets resolve YES if the company's NPM Price (Nasdaq Private Market) hits the listed threshold at any point between market creation and the deadline (≥ for HIGH, ≤ for LOW valuations). Companies affected include OpenAI, Anthropic, Databricks, ByteDance, Stripe, Kraken, Anduril, Neuralink, Perplexity, Revolut, Glean, Lambda, Canva, and Epic Games, with Nov 30 and Dec 31, 2026 deadlines. This is a clarity-only update with no substantive change to resolution criteria.
Additionally, U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage markets were clarified to use Freddie Mac weekly PMMS data, with a resolution deadline extended to January 14, 2027 if final-week data is delayed.
Recent Resolutions:
- Gemini Carbon top 10/5/3/1 debut in Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027 → YES
- Gemini Carbon debut score ≥1520, ≥1530, ≥1540 → YES; ≥1550, ≥1560 → NO
- Jay Z performs at 2027 Big Game halftime show → YES
- Kanye West, Drake, Morgan Wallen, Taylor Swift, and numerous other artists performing at 2027 Big Game halftime show → all NO
- Denver, CO snow by Nov 15 and Nov 30 → YES; by Oct 31 → NO
- Gävle Goat burns in 2026 → NO
- "Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2028?" → Voided/refunded to cost basis
⚠️ Bugs & Issues
- Infinite scroll bug: polymarket.com/new loads only 20 markets instead of infinite scrolling. Partially acknowledged as fixed but still reported by users.
- Elevated 429 errors on /v2/positions endpoint: Root cause is a rate-limit quirk that groups all callers sharing the default User-Agent: node header under a shared limit. Workaround: set a custom User-Agent header. Flagged to the team, not yet fixed.
- Data API v1 retired: Callers receiving HTTP 410. Fix: migrate to API v2.
- WebSocket Error 1013: Suggested fix is to switch to the beta WebSocket.
- API tick size desync: API updates tick size before the CLOB actually changes, causing order rejections ($0.001 increment errors). Recommended workaround: use fixed tick size tables.
- Profit display change: Redeemed positions no longer show profit in the position section. Unclear if intentional or a bug.
- KDEN snowfall market: To be refunded due to missing/inconsistent data from the KDEN station (confirmed by staff). Note: NOAA stopped providing weather data, forcing a resolution source change for weather markets. No reliable source currently exists for international city rain/precipitation markets.
- Account lockout: One user reported being locked out due to a Google Authenticator 2FA issue, with support case pending and unresolved.
- Colocation KYC/KYB delays: Multiple users reported slow approvals; staff confirmed turnaround can be "a few business days."
- Ireland/Dublin geoblock: UI trading from Ireland is blocked, but API trading is permitted.
📋 Clarifications
US × Iran Ceasefire Markets ("through Oct 31" and "through Nov 2"): A clarification was issued Nov 3, 2026 at 5:30 PM ET. Reports of US strikes on Qeshm Island surfaced Oct 30 (Iran Standard Time), but the consensus of credible reporting placed the strikes in the early hours of November 3 IST — after both market deadlines. No qualifying military action was established before either cutoff, so both markets resolved as ceasefire continuing.
Taker delay & matching lock (confirmed by staff): The 1-second taker delay runs concurrently across orders, so 10 simultaneous orders do not accumulate 10 seconds of delay. However, orders are still processed one at a time per account/market (risk re-check → matching lock → match). Matching-lock wait is p99 ~50ms under normal load, up to a few hundred ms at peak. On crypto markets, clients waiting for each response before sending the next order will accumulate delays — recommendation is to send bursts concurrently. Staff noted performance improvements are coming.
Polybolt / RTDS latency: The paid Chainlink stream vs. Polymarket RTDS shows approximately 300ms difference. Polybolt websocket cuts latency roughly in half but does not resolve other RTDS gaps.
v2 onchain fee cap: There is currently no onchain cap on principal plus fees. maxSpend sizes orders to fit the fee budget but is not enforced onchain. No plans for an onchain fee ceiling at this time.
⚡ Disputes
- Esports market wrong resolution: User dikipiki reported a potentially incorrect resolution on an esports market and was seeking contact to file a dispute. No resolution recorded.
- US × Iran Ceasefire: Disputed resolution period addressed via the clarification above; order books cleared at 5:30 PM ET Nov 3 regardless of outcome.
If the private company valuations on NPM were to spike dramatically in the final weeks before the Dec 31 deadline, would you be positioning for YES or holding back to see if it's sustainable?
UMA DIGEST — 4 NOVEMBER 2026
🔥 News & Announcements
The F1 champion market was settled, sparking debate. eip15942 argued the settlement was improper ("Earlier it was 'follow the rules,' and now suddenly the rules don't need to be followed"), while laurleo maintained that P4 (too early / unable to determine) remains the most reasonable outcome under the rules since the award has not been announced. The market remains disputable.
⚠️ Bugs & Issues
A user (tt_tt00) reported losing their UMA balance due to missing votes without receiving a notification, contrasting with the existing notification for missed reveals. infinity_d responded that slash notifications are visible in results and documented, and directed the user to open a support ticket for a separate gas estimation error they encountered.
📋 Clarifications
Somali pirates / commercial ship market: A dispute arose over whether a seized fishing vessel (the Azini) qualifies as a "commercial ship." utoya352 noted that sources such as MSCI/EUNAVFOR, AFP, and IMB consistently classify the Azini as a fishing vessel, a category separate from commercial/merchant ships, and called for a market clarification. armanh01 confirmed the same question applies to the Nov 30 bracket.
US strikes on Iran (Oct 31 & Nov 2 brackets): usernamethr33 laid out the dispute in detail. US officials confirmed a strike on Iran on Nov 3 (Iran time), which does not qualify for the Oct 31 or Nov 2 brackets on its own. The crux is a "recent weeks" statement from officials. The Oct 31 Y side argues the 3-day waiting clause (triggered Oct 29 by an OSINT post later refuted) expired on Nov 1, meaning the bracket should have closed before the WSJ article appeared. The Nov 2 Y side argues the "recent weeks" language is too vague to attribute a strike to their window. The Nov 3–Nov 7 brackets are disputed on timing grounds only.
⚡ Disputes
Portsmouth vs. Swansea City (EFL, final score 3–1): Several proposals were made at a 2–1 scoreline. savagefin1252 and jarmax provided backend data from the EFL's public Firestore feed showing Portsmouth's third goal (Waddingham) was recorded at 21:42:03 UTC and full-time at 21:43:27 UTC, with the site updating at 21:43:31 UTC. Any proposal made before 21:42:03 UTC therefore preceded the final goal. exquisite_wolf_79651 posted Wayback Machine archives of the raw EFL backend records as corroborating evidence. flame80887 began disputing the early proposals, stating he believes every EFL game in question was proposed on bad data. im.the.wizard countered that there are "a lot of bad disputes here" and suggested flame80887 may end up net negative. The dispute is active and ongoing.
Russia targeting Kyiv (Nov 3): jduckyj proposed P4, citing insufficient evidence.
With multiple markets hinging on precise timestamps and data sources, how much should settlement depend on backend records versus official announcements?
POLYMARKET DIGEST — 3 NOVEMBER 2026
🔥 News & Announcements
Polymarket has launched its first Perps Trading Competition: $50K paid out to the top 50 traders on Polymarket Perps, with 3× boosted scoring on Anthropic pre-IPO ($ANT). The competition runs live through Nov 16. Join at: polymarket.com/r/perps-comp
Several 2026 election markets have had their placeholder candidates replaced with real names, including races for Alaska Governor, California Governor, California Lt. Governor, Alaska Senate, Idaho Senate, Nebraska Senate, South Dakota Senate, Montana Senate, Rhode Island Governor, Michigan Governor, Los Angeles Mayor, and AK-AL House. Notably, the "Will Dick Durbin be the next Senate Majority Leader?" market was clarified: it actually refers to Chris Van Hollen, and references to Durbin in the oracle question should be read as Van Hollen.
In climate markets, ak504111 confirmed that New York, Chicago, Seattle, and Boston have been intentionally removed from rain markets as the platform prepares to launch snowfall markets for those cities soon.
⚠️ Bugs & Issues
Multiple users report being unable to initiate deposits via card or Google Pay. The refresh/recharge interface is also broken for some users. A bug limiting the new markets view to only 10 markets was reported; kurwamach confirmed it has been reported to the team.
Users running WebSocket connections are encountering ConnectionClosedError (code=1013, slow consumer: send buffer full) errors even on healthy VPS infrastructure in unrestricted regions. This appears to be a server-side issue.
Sponsored Chainlink API keys have expired; blunkoed requested the team begin reviewing forms to issue new keys.
habitual_revers confirmed a significant CLOB infrastructure issue: the current engine has a per-account matching lock, meaning order submissions during high-activity bursts (e.g. BTC 5-minute markets) can see POST /order latencies of 150–260 ms median and p90 exceeding 1 second, even for post-only orders. There is currently no direct/colocation submission path available. This is expected to improve with the new engine. Cancel latency tail can also reach multiple seconds, making it mathematically difficult for makers to cancel in time.
A separate issue was raised: when one wallet in a batch has insufficient funds, the entire transaction reverts rather than skipping the underfunded order. No fix has been announced.
diggeryay flagged yet another taker delay bypass has appeared.
📋 Clarifications
An ongoing #devs discussion centered on the 1-second taker delay. The consensus among active traders is that 1s is too high and is killing sports market volume — walem noted that markets which previously had 500K volume now sit at ~40K. Suggested alternatives ranged from 50ms to 300ms. laucyph3r argued that makers cannot be blamed for lack of skill when cancel latency spikes can themselves reach multiple seconds, making timely cancellation mathematically impossible regardless of strategy. No official change has been announced.
On CTFExchangeV2: lynx038696 confirmed there is currently no documented hard per-order BUY spending cap covering principal plus all fees. Whether a nonzero getMaxFeeRate() ceiling will be restored has not been officially addressed.
With the taker delay killing sports market volume, would dropping it to 50ms actually bring traders back, or is the infrastructure latency problem the real villain here?
UMA DIGEST — 3 NOVEMBER 2026
🔥 News & Announcements
Polymarket issued a clarification resolving all Dota 2 markets related to the potn9ki vs HellNight- (EPC Season 3) match at 50-50 (P3), treating the match as not having started. This followed the Esports Pro Circuit disqualifying HellNight- from Season 3 and voiding all their Group Stage results. The decision is confirmed as irreversible by nik4456 and enormouz. Map 1 was separately noted as misresolved. A related ETH price market clarification was flagged as erroneous — one of the two required prices was missing from the text — and needs to be reissued.
⚠️ Bugs & Issues
Multiple data sources (Dotabuff, Polymarket scoreboard, Valve API) showed conflicting or erroneous results for the Dota 2 match. No VOD was publicly available. Bonders reportedly had approximately $400–500k in shares at risk for roughly $500 in potential gain, and lost funds despite acting in good faith based on published results prior to the post-match DQ announcement.
📋 Clarifications
User holymoses7 was granted access to dispute threads by admin infinity_d after reaching Discord Level 5. Dispute thread rules were posted: one message per thread per user, no replies, no personal attacks, good faith participation only, and no reposting.
⚡ Disputes
Dota 2 / CS2 Post-Match DQ Dispute: The core disagreement is whether a post-match disqualification voiding all results should be treated identically to a mid-match DQ. effpwnz and stimeronis argued market rules explicitly state that if a match begins but is not completed and one team wins due to the opponent's disqualification, the market resolves to the winning team — and game logs confirmed an in-game admin message at 39:48 halted the match, awarding potn9ki a technical victory. mebeim, syrupfund, and gum5683 countered that the previous CS2 precedent (P3) involved a DQ during a live match, not after full completion on Dotabuff. Polymarket's 50-50 clarification stands regardless. Broader community concern was raised that proposers acting correctly are losing bonds due to post-match organizational decisions entirely outside their control, with some calling for Polymarket to reimburse Game 1 bets.
F1 2026 World Championship Market Dispute: Kimi Antonelli was declared champion after the Mexico City race per FIA sources, and a "Yes" resolution was proposed before the final scheduled race of the season. eip15942 and gum5683 disputed this as premature (P4). Market rules explicitly require waiting for the final scheduled race result before resolving "Yes," though early "No" resolutions are permitted — a distinction 7h0nk3r and abhiz69 called inconsistent. laurleo, mebeim, and enormouz cited IndyCar precedent and the existence of an "Other" bracket for edge cases, supporting P4. The market is now double-disputed with placeholder and Other outcomes also proposed; resolution is expected after the final race next month.
When markets resolve based on organizational decisions made after competition ends, should the rules protect bettors who acted on real-time game data, or stick strictly to final official outcomes?
POLYMARKET DIGEST — 2 NOVEMBER 2026
⚠️ Bugs & Issues
Several users reported platform problems over the past 24 hours. The Polymarket website was briefly non-responsive early on November 1. data40. reported that the Watchlist button has disappeared from the homepage on the web version; clearing cache and cookies did not resolve it. ak477777. was unable to place orders, darko5586 could not deposit crypto (no deposit address shown), and stefo9260 reported that wallets previously "approved for colocation" are no longer working — tsmultra asked them to send details via DM. Users noted that order matching latency has been elevated, with pepesong reporting 150–170ms averages from a colo box; 001_raghav noted latency has been above 300ms for the past week.
🔥 News & Announcements
The V2 migration has been postponed to November 9, according to a link shared by blunkoed pointing to the official @polymarketdevs Twitter post. Questions remain open about whether existing markets will be migrated to V2 or only new markets launched on V2.
A user (exquisite_puppy_15167_76707) was promoting an unofficial affiliate rebate scheme in #devs, claiming to offer 10–18% additional rebates on top of existing taker rates via a "personal connection" to Polymarket. The offer attracted skepticism from other users. Treat this as a likely scam — ransom0669 also warned others that scammers were DMing them immediately after posting.
With the V2 migration delayed to November 9, do you think the platform will have fixed the wallet approval and deposit issues by then, or could launch day be chaotic?
UMA DIGEST — 2 NOVEMBER 2026
🔥 News & Announcements
Multiple disputes were active simultaneously, raising concerns about "block proposing" — where users submit several related markets at once, making it financially prohibitive to dispute all of them given the $750 bond per market. armanh01 suggested reducing the bond, while 7h0nk3r criticized the broader pattern of rushing proposals before resolution conditions are clearly met.
UMA.Rocks governance concerns were also raised: armanh01 noted its influence has diminished following recent clarifications, and 7h0nk3r alleged paid voting by a specific member. Bribery allegations were described by armanh01 as "blown out of proportion."
⚠️ Bugs & Issues
- holymoses7 was unable to post in the UMA disputes channel due to insufficient server level (requires level 5+) and requested moderator access. They also reported being targeted by an impersonator/scammer via DMs.
- Some proposers (e.g., flame) have been submitting NFL total TD markets immediately after games, before the official gamebook is posted. Rules require the gamebook as the source; the issue is expected to stop now that it has been flagged.
- The MrBeast video views market was flagged by marydavis552 as having been proposed approximately one hour early.
📋 Clarifications
NBA "Other" option: daring_otter_72707 incorrectly claimed there was no "Other" resolution option in the Zach LaVine/Fred VanVleet markets. laurleo clarified that "Other" exists but is invisible to traders unless Polymarket makes it tradable.
Post-roll procedure: jenia_13 raised concern that allowing a second comment after a rolled vote is prone to manipulation; armanh01 confirmed this is standard post-roll procedure.
⚡ Disputes
Trump "Burger" Market — Did Trump say "burger" in October?
Proposed No; disputed twice (including by aenews). Evidence surfaced of Trump saying "HAMburger" with audible stress on "ham." The core question is whether "hamburger" counts as saying "burger." The YES side argues Oxford/Merriam-Webster recognize "burger" as a productive morpheme (as in cheeseburger, portobello burger) and cites a precedent where "transgender" counted for "trans." The NO side counters that "hamburger" etymologically derives from Hamburg+er (German city), and that under current rules, closed compounds only qualify if the target word is a distinct component — derivations and alterations are excluded. 7h0nk3r argued that even under a rebracketing account, "-burger" would be a bound morpheme, explicitly excluded by rules. emeraldedge_ noted a prior MrBeast market listed "Burger/Hamburger" separately, suggesting Polymarket itself distinguishes them. ovr claimed to have evidence for YES but refused to share it, drawing widespread criticism. The market had already been extended once; trading volume is low (~1.6K), suggesting consensus leans No.
Zach LaVine (Kings) & Fred VanVleet (Rockets) NBA Markets
Both markets were proposed to resolve to the players' current teams. A template clause stated: "If the player does not officially join a new team, this market will resolve to 'Other.'" The dispute argument holds that neither player joined a "new" team — both exercised existing contract options — so resolution should be "Other." The counter-argument is that exercising a player option constitutes joining a team, and precedent supports YES for players who re-signed. Both markets remain contested.
Benny Gantz Israeli PM Mandate Market
jenia_13 proposed No, arguing Israeli Basic Law requires the president to assign the mandate to a Knesset member, and Gantz is not one. A dispute was filed on the grounds that the president has not yet assigned the mandate to anyone, meaning low-probability scenarios remain open and resolution is premature. 7h0nk3r agreed the proposal was too early. General community consensus: bad proposal.
US Sanctions on China by October 31
Proposed YES based on an Oct 27 Federal Register notice suspending visa-free travel to CNMI for PRC nationals, effective Oct 30, citing national security. The NO side argues revoking visa-free status is not a travel ban or visa restriction, was not announced by OFAC, and no publication calls it a sanction. 7h0nk3r (bonded YES side) counters that the rules explicitly include "travel bans and visa restrictions," this was an affirmative government action targeting PRC nationals for national security reasons. liquidateddegen and rex416 were seeking co-disputants to split the $750 bond.
BOS vs ORL Q3 End Time
Q3 appeared to end at ~5:28 per the NBA gamebook, but the live scoreboard briefly showed "end Q3" then reverted; substitutions occurred after 3 free throws with 1.3s remaining, and the Magic had time for a half-court heave. Disputed via UMA v2 (2-hour window) with evidence posted in the dispute thread.
laurleo separately lost $750 on a mistaken dispute related to Pacific Time / Daylight Saving Time confusion, having proposed a market believing midnight PT had not yet passed when clocks had already changed.
If "hamburger" contains "burger" as a morpheme, should every word with a productive component count toward resolution — or does the distinction between standalone words and compounds matter?
POLYMARKET DIGEST — 1 NOVEMBER 2026
⚠️ Bugs & Issues
Chainlink price feed jitter: Multiple users reported severe jitter/fluctuation in Chainlink crypto price streams throughout October 31. floaty_boi shared a visual comparison showing the anomaly. pmkeaton confirmed: "we've made the Chainlink team aware of the jitters." The issue appeared to improve on its own around 21:50 UTC, per ca1138.
CLOB/WebSocket performance degradation: Widespread complaints about CLOB reliability — users reported 300ms–2s order matching latency, frequent cancel timeouts, and WebSocket error 1013 (slow consumer: send buffer full). berth6833 noted the situation is worse than during the World Cup period despite lower current volume. The last day of a fee promo was cited as a contributing factor to congestion. The Beta WebSocket connection limit of 10 was flagged as insufficient for production use; habitual_revers asked for more specific feedback on what limits would work.
Crypto Up/Down markets skipped around US DST change: fly33499 flagged that Polymarket skipped BTC Up/Down markets (5m, 15m, 1h, 4h, daily) around the November 1 US daylight saving time change, as the 1:00–2:00 AM ET hour occurred twice. Bot operators are advised to handle missing market slugs with a skip-and-backoff strategy rather than tight retry loops, and to align 4h/daily schedules to ET.
Saved markets icon missing: taimoor789 reported that the save/bookmark icon for markets has disappeared from the home page.
2FA login issue: haroon22 reported being locked out due to Google Authenticator codes being rejected and no recovery code available. tsmultra asked for a DM with the profile address to investigate, and reminded users he will not DM first.
Did the Chainlink jitter and CLOB latency issues impact your trading decisions on October 31, or did you manage to avoid the worst of it?
UMA DIGEST — 1 NOVEMBER 2026
🔥 News & Announcements
A proposer suffered significant losses after proposing the wrong match for Rangers FC vs. Aberdeen FC Scottish Premiership markets — the game referenced was not the correct league fixture (it was for the November 24 match, not the cup game played on Oct 31). The proposal attracted around 49–72 disputes, effectively wiping out the proposer's PnL.
⚠️ Bugs & Issues
A Phoenix, AZ rainfall market appears to have misresolved to "No" despite METAR and NWS climate data showing rain and thunderstorms on October 30. The CLI report showed "MM" (missing data) for that date. sam46 noted this is an edge case not previously encountered, suggesting Polymarket may need a fallback source when primary CLI data is missing.
A CS2 map market (DM2 SSins, Oct 31) was proposed 50/50 despite no official result on HLTV or Liquipedia. kripkripochek3922 reported the stream went offline due to connectivity issues, but contacted a team manager and player who confirmed the game was completed. No official tournament result has been published.
📋 Clarifications
Corners market (QPR vs Preston, ELC): eip15942 disputed a corners total market, arguing that Polymarket's own rules state "corners taken" (not "awarded") should count, and that QPR's official data API shows 12 corners taken vs. 13 awarded. Other users (mawyoo, nopsuke, gum5683, tenacious_mango_59265) countered that the binding resolution source is the EFL's official match centre, which reports 13, and that the QPR API endpoint is not the designated resolution source. The consensus view is that the EFL page showing 13 corners controls, regardless of the taken/awarded distinction in the rules, unless the official source itself separates those figures.
Anti-cartel operation market (October, Colombia): kefoboss argued a US anti-cartel operation market should resolve Yes based on a Colombian CTI operation conducted "with the backing of DEA and IRS-CI." goldenhelmetxd cited the resolution criteria requiring physical US presence at the target site, not merely support or advisory roles, pointing to P1 No. The August version of the same market already resolved No despite SOUTHCOM and DEA involvement, establishing precedent.
⚡ Disputes
Israeli legislative election winner market: jenia_13 and armanh01 are in an ongoing dispute. armanh01 disputes the resolution, claiming the market was proposed before final counts were confirmed and that there was genuine ambiguity. jenia_13 counters that the ambiguity was "inside your head" and that the party in question received fewer than 9,000 votes, making the result clear. armanh01 acknowledged jenia_13 will "likely win" given the market's high volume. The Israeli election winner market (linked to Polymarket) has reportedly misresolved according to armanh01, who intends to set precedent with the current dispute first.
Venezuela election historical grievance: rhinosaur_ reiterated that a prior Venezuela election market resolved in favor of Edmundo Gonzalez due to alleged manipulation by a whale ("Domer") who accumulated cheap Maduro No shares and influenced UMA voters — a resolution described as a "scam" both inside and outside the ecosystem, and covered by rekt.news.
When resolution sources conflict—like the QPR corners taken vs. awarded debate—should the official league page always win over team API data, or does the distinction matter?
POLYMARKET DIGEST — 31 OCTOBER 2026
🔥 News & Announcements
Polymarket published a full post-mortem on the October 29 supply-chain attack. A third-party performance-monitoring script loaded on polymarket.com was compromised; the malicious replacement used active user sessions to sell positions and drain wallets during a short window. suhailkakar confirmed the following response actions: the compromised script was removed, all caches were cleared, trading and the relayer were paused then reopened, all active login sessions were reset, and third-party scripts are being redeployed with stronger CSP, explicit version pinning, and sandboxing. The case has been referred to law enforcement.
Refunds total $3.9M: $2.7M for directly drained wallets and $1.2M in goodwill payments covering positions force-sold during the attack and losses incurred while trading was paused. suhailkakar stated that as of October 30, 95% of affected wallets have been refunded in full. No claim tickets are needed — eligible wallets were identified from on-chain and trading data. Users who believe their refund amount is incorrect can fill out this Google Form.
bluelaminate noted that the incident could have been far worse: some compromised wallets had their positions market-sold by the script before it could execute withdrawals, allowing users to withdraw their remaining balance themselves.
45trinity praised the speed of the response, attributing improvements partly to the ICE investment, while also criticising the use of the word "goodwill" (arguing that in a regulated-exchange context this is a compliance obligation, not goodwill), the NDA reportedly required for refunds over $10k, and the lack of pre-existing guardrails against third-party script swaps.
yasarhoca and david_82262 both called for mandatory 2FA on withdrawals, noting it would have significantly limited the damage.
⚠️ Bugs & Issues
Several unrelated bugs are active:
yannis4845 reports a translucent/invisible orderbook persisting even after clearing cache and cookies across browsers.
guma777a reports that the live feed for Counter-Strike 2 games (showing map and kill data) has been missing for two days.
shaz1996 reports that the Match Winner orderbook has disappeared across multiple cricket markets, with only fixed buy buttons remaining visible; other market orderbooks (Toss Winner, Top Batter) are unaffected.
viniipaquete flagged that the bug preventing additional markets from loading is still unresolved.
abtonmoy8 has been unable to withdraw funds or trade for over six weeks due to a "API key signer address mismatch" error and repeated withdrawal failures; the case was escalated to the backend team but remains unresolved.
ice071059 reports that transferring funds between wallets causes inaccurate PnL calculations, a regression introduced by a recent PnL calculation update.
becksinc flagged that orders in BTC 5-minute Up/Down markets are sometimes held for ~1 second rather than the documented 250 ms taker delay. david_82262 clarified that the taker delay was reduced from 250 ms to 150 ms on September 4.
berth6833 reported an unusually high number of WebSocket timeouts on the evening of October 30.
⚡ Disputes
sushi4uuu disputes the refund amount they received, stating that funds stolen from their account alone totalled approximately $30,000 USDT — not counting positions liquidated at fire-sale prices — yet Polymarket offered only $197 USDT. No response from Polymarket staff is recorded yet.
dipsybitsy is still waiting for a separate misresolve refund on an NBA market, unrelated to the October 29 attack.
Given the mix of praise for the fast response and criticism around the refund process, here's an engaging question:
Should Polymarket have paused all withdrawals for 24-48 hours after the attack to verify refund amounts before releasing funds, or was the speed of getting money back to users more important than perfect accuracy?
UMA DIGEST — 31 OCTOBER 2026
⚠️ Bugs & Issues
A user (tt_tt00) reported an unexpected drop in their UMA stake balance. infinity_d explained that if a voter hasn't voted and revealed in over a year, they would have been slashed repeatedly every 2 days, which is likely the cause of the balance loss.
📋 Clarifications
World's Largest Company (End of October) markets: jessicaonlychild flagged that several brackets of the "2nd largest company end of October 2026" market were proposed prematurely. The correct elimination logic: Apple (#1), Nvidia (#2), Microsoft (#3) — brackets below the current rank are eliminated, but top-ranked companies must remain open until all relevant exchanges close. Since October 31 falls on a Saturday, only the Tehran Stock Exchange trades, closing around 12:30 PM local time (~5 AM ET). jessicaonlychild and im.the.wizard confirmed proposals should not be made until ~5 AM ET. Three incorrect proposals were disputed; all other brackets were confirmed fine. jessicaonlychild reiterated her standing suggestion that Polymarket should standardize end-of-month resolution to 4 PM ET on the last NYSE trading day to avoid recurring confusion.
Saudi Arabia vs. Yemen strike market (September 26): A dispute over whether Saudi forces carried out a qualifying military action on Sep 26 was resolved via P1 clarification. The official clarification text stated: "The totality of information available from this market's resolution sources does not attribute any qualifying military action to the armed forces of Saudi Arabia on September 26, 2026." raskell1 noted this is consistent with a prior precedent from September 20.
⚡ Disputes
Israel election result markets: jenia9419 proposed resolution on Israeli election markets, citing 100% vote counts, coalition-building coverage in newspapers, and Kalshi having already resolved the equivalent market. armanh01 and others filed P4 (ambiguity) disputes, arguing that statements by Netanyahu regarding an investigation into alleged irregularities in Arab villages created sufficient ambiguity to require waiting for official certified results (expected November 4). laurleo and jenia9419 argued the annulment scenario is a mathematical impossibility and that P4 is being abused — laurleo stated: "Rules need to make it explicitly fine for mathematical impossibility to be proposed across the board because until then the scams will continue." The dispute went P4, locking funds until at least November 4. jenia9419 expressed strong frustration, calling the outcome a scam given Kalshi's resolution and the absence of any formal investigation. armanh01 maintained the precedent of waiting for official results whenever any ambiguity exists.
Systemic concern — P4 abuse: Several users including laurleo and abhiz69 raised broader concerns about coordinated P4 filings using suspected alt accounts to push markets to ambiguity even when outcomes are practically certain. laurleo called for rule changes to explicitly allow resolution when recount or annulment is a mathematical impossibility, stating the issue was not addressed properly in a prior Bulgaria case due to reluctance to challenge certain influential voters.
Should prediction markets allow resolution when an outcome is mathematically impossible to reverse, or does requiring official certification always outweigh logical certainty?
UMA DIGEST — 30 OCTOBER 2026
⚡ Disputes
Anthropic training pause market (Polymarket): wang02272 argues the market should resolve NO, contending that Anthropic's SEC filing explicitly uses the word "delay" — not "pause" — for the recent pre-training event, and that Anthropic itself distinguishes the two terms. The Reuters headline calling it a "training pause" is described as a journalist's interpretation. Wang also notes the previously disclosed RL training pause predates market creation and thus cannot qualify.
Drew Jenner / Clarence mayoral election: eip15942 raised a concern that Jenner also needs to be elected as city councillor to legally assume the mayoralty. The majority view (enormouz, im.the.wizard, jamestalaricof, ghostmbao) is that the market rules only reference "the result of the election," with no requirement to officially assume office, and that credible reporting plus the Tasmanian Electoral Commission declare Jenner elected. im.the.wizard cited France mayors as precedent that swearing-in is not required unless the rules explicitly say "officially assumes." Consensus leans toward resolving YES.
Israeli Knesset election markets: An active dispute is ongoing over whether to settle Israeli election markets now or wait for official certification. armanh01 argues the ambiguity clause is satisfied because the prime minister has alleged voter fraud and arrests have been made, citing precedent where a loser merely contesting results triggered P4. jenia9419 counters that 100% of votes are now officially counted, two of the parties proposed are nowhere near the top 10, and credible reporting is sufficient for resolution. lonfus notes most results have no real ambiguity. jamestalaricof points out Kalshi has also not settled these markets. The dispute remains unresolved, with armanh01 holding a disputed position worth ~$1,500.
Rex416 / Raskell conflict: A personal dispute erupted between rex416. and raskell1 over proposals for military-action markets. raskell1 accuses rex416. of extortion, deliberately leaving markets unresolved for 40 days, and claims rex416. is banned from the Polymarket Discord. rex416. denies bad faith and says raskell previously told him to just dispute rather than warn. armanh01 called the behaviour a pattern. No resolution reached.
📋 Clarifications
Market with incorrect player surname: jarmax asked about markets where a player is identified by a wrong surname. mebeim and laurleo explained: if it is clear which player is meant, it is generally acceptable; however, if another real player shares the typoed name and could plausibly be the subject, the market would likely resolve NO without an official clarification from the Polymarket market team.
Crypto hack market (>$100M): alexchunus flagged the Bybit and Binance hacks, with Tether freezing ~$970M in USDT, and suggested proposing the relevant Polymarket market. fernando5495 noted it should appear on the Rekt leaderboard or have clear consensus. im.the.wizard instructed not to propose it for now.
⚠️ Bugs & Issues
Several NBA prop markets linked in proposals return "Page not found" on the Polymarket UI (raised by what_the_ginger). It is unclear whether these are duplicates or archived markets.
Is the Anthropic market's distinction between "delay" and "pause" a linguistic gotcha or a genuine material difference that should affect the outcome?
POLYMARKET DIGEST — 29 OCTOBER 2026
🔥 News & Announcements
Beta WebSocket streams launched: habitual_revers announced a beta rewrite of the WebSocket subscription streams at new endpoints:
wss://ws-subscriptions-clob.polymarket.com/beta/ws/market
wss://ws-subscriptions-clob.polymarket.com/beta/ws/user
Same protocol/payloads as production, but reportedly more stable with latency improvements. Current beta limits are 10 connections per channel per IP. Multiple devs (blunkoed, up0rabn1k) confirmed rare disconnects and reduced "slow consumer" errors compared to the old endpoint. habitual_revers noted the beta will be monitored for 1–2 weeks before a production rollout decision.
CLOB latency & fee holiday side effects: Users are reporting 2000ms+ match delays and cancel timeouts. purpletyoma noted the likely main trigger is order spam from the ongoing zero-fee promo, and expects improvement after the promo ends on November 1. A separate matching engine rewrite in Rust is in progress but is independent of the WS beta. mrbobbybeans flagged that the fee holiday does not count toward weighted volume (wV) for rebate tier calculations, causing tier decay for active traders — sports markets are noted as permanently excluded from proportional wV.
📋 Clarifications
Vermont elections — Constitutional process added to rules: Polymarket updated bulletin board rules for all 2026 Vermont Governor and Lieutenant Governor markets to clarify that resolution includes the Constitutional process whereby the State Legislature elects the winner if no candidate secures a majority.
"Will Trump say 'Two Percent'" market: Polymarket noted awareness of a dispute on this market. A clarification was to be issued (or not) at 6:00 PM ET on October 28. The order book was cleared at that time regardless of outcome.
NuScale & CoreWeave bankruptcy markets: Rules for "Will NuScale announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?" and "Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?" were updated for clarity.
⚠️ Bugs & Issues
LoL Worlds market wrong date: jayson0 reported that the MKoi vs T1 market displayed the match date as October 29 when the match was actually on October 28.
"Address in closed only mode" error: laucyph3r and guizao2439 reported their addresses entered a restricted "closed only mode" as of 02:30 UTC on October 28, blocking order placement. No resolution was confirmed during the period.
Cancel timeouts: Multiple users (berth6833, pumpty_dumpty) reported order cancellations consistently timing out or being delayed by ~1 second. pumpty_dumpty flagged that some orders could not be cancelled during a CLOB maintenance window and were picked off as a result; skulldoom97 asked for logs to investigate.
Reward bait-and-switch: viniipaquete complained that market rewards were changed to $1 after being set higher, effectively baiting liquidity providers.
Will the Rust matching engine rewrite successfully resolve the 2000ms+ delays, or is order spam from the fee holiday the real bottleneck?
UMA DIGEST — 29 OCTOBER 2026
🔥 News & Announcements
UMA's dispute bot, which previously auto-disputed early proposals, has reportedly been discontinued. alexchunus noted that extending liveness is now the preferred approach — effectively "disputing for free" without spending on losing disputes.
⚠️ Bugs & Issues
joe_jureidini reported an unknown error when trying to commit votes. infinity_d directed them to check their support ticket.
baltazar.f reported that their support ticket thread (ticket-2220) appears to have disappeared from Discord, though the ticket limit message suggests it is still open on the backend. infinity_d provided a direct link to the thread.
📋 Clarifications
A debate emerged around the P4 timing rule (proposals must wait for HLTV listing or 2 hours after event conclusion). stradiveri and alexchunus clarified that for map-specific markets (Map 1, Map 2, etc.), the 2-hour window starts after that map concludes, not after the full series ends — a position attributed to dmitry's earlier explanation. This interpretation has always been how such markets are proposed.
⚡ Disputes
CS:GO/HLTV P4 Bond Loss: geoffreywalker30_91195 lost 8 bonds after being voted P4 for proposing results inside the 2-hour HLTV window on a match that HLTV never listed (Dark Moon, 14 Sep). He argues that other proposers did the same thing on similar unlisted matches at least 10 times in the prior month without being disputed, making enforcement inconsistent. stradiveri countered that the rule is clear regardless of selective enforcement, and that anyone disputing those earlier proposals would have also won P4 votes. A forum post by geoffreywalker30_91195 is pending moderator review. Community consensus is that his case is unlikely to succeed.
Keinan Davis "1+ Shots on Target" market: ostrich_knight flagged that the market resolved No but should have resolved Yes, citing Serie A official match stats. The request was submitted for review.
US–Iran / Israel–Iran ceasefire markets: ashley51782 posted links to two ceasefire continuation markets without further explanation; jarmax confirmed action was taken ("Done").
Is the shift from auto-disputing to extending liveness actually saving UMA money, or does it just move the cost and risk onto proposers who extend claims too early?
POLYMARKET DIGEST — 28 OCTOBER 2026
🔥 News & Announcements
Polymarket Protocol V2 migration is approaching. Canary markets run through October 30, with new markets tentatively switching to V2 on November 2. The migration introduces a unified exchange contract across market types and a new Data API v2 backed by an on-chain indexer with cursor pagination. A migration guide is available at poly.market/v2-migration. Users trading via the website need no technical changes; the steps are for SDK/API/smart contract integrators. kartojal clarified that the /activity RTDS endpoint does not provide V2 markets and should not be used by integrators. The November 2 date remains tentative — gasuajex noted an update is coming soon, meaning integrators may need to support both versions simultaneously for a period.
habitual_revers confirmed that a major infrastructure rewrite (Rust rewrite / CLOB overhaul) is still in progress, targeting completion of internal builds by end of year, with actual release depending on traffic and market conditions. Users expressed concern this means roughly 3 more months of current degraded performance.
Polymarket is exploring daily wind markets — ak504111 asked the community which cities would be of interest. Suggestions focused on coastal cities with notable wind phenomena (Mistral, Bora, Chinook, Santa Ana, etc.).
⚠️ Bugs & Issues
Order cancellation queue overload is an ongoing issue. laucyph3r noted cancellations can take anywhere from 10 ms to several seconds depending on matching engine load, and the queue has been "out of control for days." berth6833 reported cancel requests reaching Cloudflare Dublin in ~3 ms but then timing out despite being well under rate limits.
habitual_revers disclosed a network routing bug — a Cloudflare/CloudFront IP resolution issue was causing incorrect network path routing. A fix was pushed; users were asked to confirm if the issue persists. The dual CDN layer is described as temporary during ongoing infrastructure work.
High CLOB match latencies were reported throughout the day, with jungle_jo noting match times climbing all week. Market data feed latencies of P50 200 ms / P90 1.5 s were reported from AWS eu-west-1.
"Show more markets" button on the homepage disappears ~2 seconds after page load (reported by laccs).
Stuck phantom orders on metal markets — floaty_boi reported orders appearing on the order book that cannot actually be taken.
📋 Clarifications
hans32312 explained UMA proposal mechanics for temperature markets: the bond is $500 (fixed), reward is $0.60 per correct proposal, and the bond is lost on incorrect proposals. Some market types require higher bonds (e.g., $750 or $25,000 for 2028 presidential nomination markets). Standard resolution time for temperature markets is ~15 minutes, though proposals can be extended automatically. hans32312 noted he only proposes temperature markets where he is confident in accuracy, and also trades on Polymarket and Kalshi in parallel.
Given the infrastructure struggles, network issues, and migration challenges, do you think Polymarket can actually complete the V2 migration smoothly on November 2 or will they need to delay again?
UMA DIGEST — 28 OCTOBER 2026
🔥 News & Announcements
The ITF updated the Brengle vs. Nilsson result to 2-1 (previously shown as 2-0 on the ITF scoreboard at the time of proposal). A significant price drop after the proposal raised concerns about insider knowledge of the ongoing third set. A mod (infinity_d) placed the market on hold pending review. Separately, im.the.wizard flagged some disputers as potentially from OFAC-sanctioned countries.
⚠️ Bugs & Issues
An MLS SOT discrepancy was flagged for the SDvsSEA match (10-24-2026): im.the.wizard cited the MLS official site showing Amahl Pellegrino with 1 SOT, while the UMA feed and tenacious_mango_59265 showed 0. The market had already settled before the discrepancy was fully investigated; infinity_d stated the team was "taking a closer look," with no resolution yet.
📋 Clarifications
Visa Earnings Market: fernando5495 disputed a proposal over whether ~9% or the more precise 9.5% (possibly 9.47%) figure should be used. Both parties agreed the market rules' "most numerically precise version" clause applies; aboss suggested the actual figure may be 9.47%.
Quebec Election Proposals: PLQ launched a legal challenge to the judicial recount following the Oct 21–22 results. gum5683 argued the challenge window was 4 days post-election and results are final, but laurleo expressed uncertainty given the ongoing legal proceedings.
Sabail Soccer Proposals: exquisite_wolf_79651 flagged multiple Sabail match proposals as potentially P4, as proposals were made at the end of regular time while the game went to extra time. laurleo suggested letting it pass if the dispute window had already closed; alexchunus noted an ~80% confidence threshold is needed for a dispute to be +EV.
⚡ Disputes
Bulgaria Presidential Election Margin of Victory: laurleo (proposer) proposed multiple margin-of-victory brackets before official CEC certification, invoking the "overwhelming consensus of credible reporting" clause. 7h0nk3r (disputer) argued proposals are only valid after official certification. im.the.wizard and rex416 noted prior UMA votes have unanimously gone P4 in pre-certification cases, treating the consensus clause as a fallback for when certification never occurs — not an alternative to it. mebeim countered that current rules are written with consensus as an alternative, not a fallback, and called for Polymarket to clarify.
Bulgaria's CEC officially certified results later the same day (Oct 27, ~18:31 UTC), confirming a ~3% margin (<10% bracket). The mathematically impossible 20–30% and 30–40% No brackets were also disputed. The dispute remained unresolved pending UMA vote. Participants across both sides called on Polymarket (Bel/Jessica) to issue binding guidance, as significant disagreement persists on whether undisputed past proposals constitute precedent.
Brengle vs. Nilsson Set Handicap: joes49572 argued that a result revision made hours after the fact should not count toward the set handicap market outcome. ITF showed Brengle winning 2-1, but some users noted ambiguity in how ITF displayed the result, and the timing of the update remained contested.
If the ITF can silently update match results hours after the fact, should markets settle on the scoreboard snapshot at proposal time or the "official" result whenever it's corrected?
POLYMARKET DIGEST — 27 OCTOBER 2026
⚠️ Bugs & Issues
API/CLOB latency crisis (ongoing): Order placement and cancellation latency has been consistently above 500ms, with some users reporting over 1000ms from Dublin. The issue has worsened since an October 21 infrastructure incident. Multiple market makers report the situation is fatal to FAK orders and unpredictable tail latency makes market making a "lottery." vader1208 confirmed their team has halted trading entirely, stating it is "just impossible" to operate. piercethecircle noted other large accounts have also stopped trading.
skulldoom97 (Polymarket dev) provided an official update outlining three mitigation approaches:
1. WebSocket improvements (coming soon, but won't fix core CLOB slowness)
2. Further DB tuning (limited options without architectural changes)
3. Rate limit adjustments as a last resort, with prior notice given
skulldoom97 attributed the root cause to increased load from the fee holiday and sports season returning, and confirmed lag is especially severe on high-activity markets (e.g. BTC 5m). A new exchange is in development with much higher throughput; it will roll out in stages (sandbox → beta → broader release). Formal announcements are expected within 1–2 weeks. vader1208 requested that current maker-tier rate limits be preserved in the interim.
LP rewards accrual interval changed: muzzammil2 reported the rewards page switched from showing accumulation every 1 minute to every 5 minutes, asking whether this was intentional.
Typhoon market inconsistent resolution sources: brassbonanza4655 flagged that in the new "How strong will In-fa be?" market, the "Violent" outcome uses JMA as the resolution source while "Super Typhoon" uses JWTC — two agencies that measure wind speed very differently. This could lead to contradictory resolutions and may be a market setup bug.
RTDS v2 activity topic not migrated: pinner reported not receiving v2 trades from the RTDS activity topic. kartojal (dev) confirmed the activity topic has not yet been migrated to v2 and is investigating.
📋 Clarifications
NBA Kings market possible misresolution: dipsybitsy and crypt0blonde raised a case where a Kings NBA quarter-spread market (Kings 3Q -1.5) appears to have been resolved incorrectly via UMA, with the score feed corrected after the proposal was submitted and the dispute window too short for anyone to react. crypt0blonde argued Polymarket should issue a refund as platform responsibility, regardless of UMA's role.
If latency keeps market makers offline, does Polymarket risk losing liquidity depth permanently before the new exchange launches?
UMA DIGEST — 27 OCTOBER 2026
🔥 News & Announcements
A massive wave of disputes hit Bolivian soccer markets. A proposer submitted results for multiple matches (including "potos"-tagged markets) within one hour of game end instead of the required two hours, and the resolution source had not yet updated. rex416. filed disputes backed by double archives (Wayback Machine + archive.is), making the "cached page" defense unavailable. im.the.wizard noted the proposer is already down roughly $34k with an additional ~$7.5k in pending golf losses. All exact-score proposals were disputed; the proposer continued submitting new proposals even after disputes were filed.
Earlier in the day, two Indonesian football markets (idn1-bpi-mak-2026-10-26 and idn1-ps-mau-2026-10-26) were also flagged as early proposals, with the resolution source showing both matches still live at proposal time.
⚠️ Bugs & Issues
The UMA bot for proposal requests was reported not working by elie220 on the morning of Oct 26. infinity_d confirmed it was resumed and fixed later that day.
NBA stats inconsistency: im.the.wizard flagged that official NBA stats briefly showed James Harden with 22 three-pointers before correcting to 19. mawyoo confirmed other sites also adjusted. No dispute needed.
📋 Clarifications
A market asking whether Democratic House incumbents lost primaries (capped at September) was proposed resolved "No" on the basis that reaching 13 losses is mathematically impossible — 7 lost votes, 4 filed then left the race, and the Louisiana special election is a new election outside the market scope. justinnocent_ stated the proposal was vetted with multiple proposers and confirmed as good by Cruz. armanh01 and laurleo agreed it appears fine.
⚡ Disputes
A heated exchange broke out between exquisite_wolf_79651 and alexchunus, with alexchunus accusing exquisite_wolf_79651 of "intentionally and knowingly misresolving oracle disputes" and front-running, while exquisite_wolf_79651 called alexchunus a "convicted scammer." exquisite_wolf_79651 suggested a video meeting be arranged with alexchunus (Penguin), joes49572 (0xWater), jason.k7 (Jason), and nickc01457 (NickC), implying multiple accounts belong to the same person. abhiz69 noted the wallet in question has been doing the same thing with multiple wallets and was previously removed by UMA. No resolution to this dispute was reached.
When resolvers have a history of multi-wallet tactics and accusations of intentional misresolution fly, at what point should UMA consider stricter identity verification to maintain oracle integrity?
POLYMARKET DIGEST — 26 OCTOBER 2026
⚠️ Bugs & Issues
Multiple traders reported significant API and infrastructure degradation starting around 21:00 UTC on October 25. 001_raghav noted POST /order latency jumping from ~220 ms to 500–1,500 ms since 12:00 UTC on Oct 25, potentially linked to the Oct 22 CLOB update. berabuilder and berth6833 confirmed p99 cancel latency exceeding 2 seconds on esports markets, with WebSocket delays also severely impacted. r33nter and pool6225 reported order kill confirmations taking 600 ms to 10+ seconds. The issues appear to be known but unresolved.
Additionally, pog_is_pog flagged a PnL discrepancy — their balance increased by ~$300 with no trades, redemptions, or deposits. satatardy noted PnL display in the UI has been broken for a long time with no fix.
bluvv_.xo flagged a potential rounding error in weather market rules: a reading of 16.5°C rounds to 16°C under half-to-even rounding, not 17°C as the rules appear to assume.
hellbot632 reported the UI cracking with more than 2,000–3,000 resting maker orders.
crypto_hamster raised a detailed concern about the taker delay mechanism on BTC 5-minute markets: held orders are released inconsistently (100 ms to 1+ seconds rather than a flat 150 ms), cancellation of held orders via precomputed order ID is refused, and minimum expiration is enforced at 180 seconds. One wallet (0xcd30) appears first in the post-hold queue ~1,500 times in September, 4–7 ms after a trade clears, raising questions about queue ordering (submit time vs. other criteria).
📋 Clarifications
Cape Town October 18 temperature markets have been updated. Due to a National Weather Service outage, all Cape Town high-temperature markets (9°C or below through 19°C or higher) will now resolve using the Weather Underground Daily Observations Table. The previously identified erroneous 19°C reading (originating from another airport and incorrectly assigned to FACT) remains excluded from resolution across all markets. The consensus view, confirmed by hans32312, is that the actual peak temperature was 16°C and markets should resolve accordingly. ak504111 confirmed the clarification was posted, and hans32312 subsequently submitted the resolution proposal.
velvet_soulb raised several open questions about the Protocol V2 migration (scheduled for Nov 2 for net-new markets), including: whether recurring BTC/ETH/SOL/XRP 5-minute Up/Down markets will launch as V2 from day one, slug naming conventions, auto-redemption behavior for deposit wallets, whether fee schedules and the 150 ms taker delay carry over, and whether a discovery endpoint will exist for upcoming recurring markets. 2773380 echoed broader frustration about insufficient advance communication around deprecations, noting that real money is at stake.
Given the multiple infrastructure issues and unresolved bugs, do you think Polymarket should pause new market launches until core API and UI performance is stabilized?
UMA DIGEST — 26 OCTOBER 2026
🔥 News & Announcements
Brazil's presidential runoff was called by the superior electoral court, with Flávio Bolsonaro refusing to concede and demanding annulment. Brazil election markets on Polymarket were proposed by non-whitelisted users and settled without dispute. armanh01 noted the market became resolvable when the electoral court made the official call.
7h0nk3r requested that extensions on the Trump Michigan rally speech brackets be undone, noting a typo on the page (October 26 vs October 25) caused extensions, while several brackets — including 3 Yes brackets — had already settled. He also argued that the "No Qualifying Event" bracket should now settle No since it cannot logically coexist with settled Yes brackets.
⚠️ Bugs & Issues
im.the.wizard flagged a misresolution on the Kings 3rd quarter lines market, which kept flipping between 29-29 and 29-31. The spread market was extended and then unexpectedly settled, while the total was disputed. Users were directed to contact Polymarket directly for a refund on the incorrectly settled spread.
📋 Clarifications
Archived Brazilian LGBT markets: Three Polymarket markets on LGBT federal deputies in the 2026 Brazilian elections were found to be archived yet proposed. 7h0nk3r clarified that archived markets can still be proposed if the outcome is determinable from the ancillary data. laurleo confirmed proposals were correct per the resolution source. The markets were likely archived due to their sensitive subject matter. One proposer self-disputed after realizing uncertainty in one bracket, saving ~$500.
Israel/Iran ceasefire markets: A dispute arose over early proposals on ceasefire markets following the Sirik explosion. armanh01 and 7h0nk3r argued markets should stay open given the unclear attribution of the strike and the active, escalating conflict. A US/Iran clarification confirmed that all related markets should remain open for 3 days from the incident. armanh01 noted that UMA Rocks voted against this and were slashed as a result — notably the first round in which Rocks chose not to publicly post their vote.
Color vs. Ex-Zero esports markets: nopsuke raised a concern that several Color match markets were proposed before HLTV (the designated resolution source) had confirmed the walkover result. The debate centered on whether the 2-hour rule applies from the moment the forfeit was declared by the TO or from the scheduled match start time. alexchunus noted the rules require only 2 hours from the event's conclusion, and since the walkover was declared 7+ hours before proposals, most participants leaned toward the proposals being valid. nopsuke maintained that the resolution source should have been waited on; HLTV did eventually update confirming the result.
⚡ Disputes
im.the.wizard vs. committee member (corruption allegation): im.the.wizard publicly accused a committee member (not named but tagged) of corruption and manipulation, stating: "I'm glad you are changing your process to not post anymore, but I hope you can recognize it's still a large problem to have a fraudster and manipulator on the committee." No formal response was recorded in the channel.
When resolution sources like HLTV conflict with market timing rules, should the community prioritize waiting for official confirmation or stick strictly to the 2-hour window from event conclusion?
