Green good. Red bad. $Webistics is my pick of the week
Afghanistan
Joined August 2021
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Pump retweeted
Another way of framing this is, if you have a 14% hit rate, then investing in 1 thing per year means you will win 0.14 times per year. If TG is implying he could have picked the winner out of the 7, then why did he voluntarily invest in the losers at the time?
Obviously it is much easier to choose in hindsight.
If you can choose in advance then yes obviously only pick the winners, but that seems impossible to me (my hit rate is maybe 35-40%). If you have some lower conviction feelings then you can deal with them via sizing (ie. modify bet size 2x instead of x instead of x/2 and etc).
People would have a better time w angel investing by evaluating the winners that they missed and why they missed them. If your goal is to get into every single one of the top 10% of investment opportunities from a previous year, then you need to evaluate why you failed to do that in the past.
For most ppl the answer will be “wasn’t offered it”, so then you need to fix for this. Why weren’t you offered? You didn’t go ask. Why didn’t you ask? You didn’t know it existed. Why didn’t you know it existed? You didn’t know this problem was worth solving or was an opportunity so you didn’t go looking for teams who are fixing it.
KOLs have a weirder angel dynamic to most folks because they get way, way more inbound. But most of this inbound is trash (mental model which founders want random KOL on their cap table such that they will inbound them?). But occasionally there are opportunities where it is beneficial (eg pumpfun might want KOLs for business reasons), however the majority of this benefit is expressed via sizing, and it’s even harder to spot since all inbound should be mentally down-rated in general if you are a KOL.
Pump retweeted
Most influencers seem to invest in the most dogtier stuff bc (1) their visibility pipeline is stuff that outbounds to them (adverse selection) or (2) they’re more comfortable backing their “friends” (adverse selection) and maybe (3) they don’t have the technical, market or product expertise to evaluate what’s good and bad.
Even if you ignore that, crypto ppls inability to understand pareto returns is quite weird. If you bet 10 times, lose 9 times, and win once, but your win a >10x, then you are a profitable investor.
TG seems to have 14% historical hit rate, with the win being on the low side of a win. 10 bets of $1000, if hit rate remains constant, yields overall profitability. The only reason to decrease shots on goal is if you can improve selection accuracy, which is the hardest part of angel investing anyway, or if your hit rate drops below profitable threshold.
It is possible to make more $ return with a hit rate of 30% than with a 70%, but crypto ppl find this very confusing.
Pump retweeted
Bybit Exploiter is laundering money by issuing Meme tokens on pump fun. Bybit Exploiter: 5STkQy...95T7Cq transferred 60 SOL to 9Gu8v6...aAdqWS, who then launched a token called QinShihuang (500000), which has traded over $26 million. solscan.io/account/9Gu8v6VZ2…
Pump retweeted
This guy convinced the president of a country to launch a rug
You can just do things
Argentinian President Javier Milei charged with fraud over $LIBRA token scandal: AP theblock.co/post/341226/arge…
Pump retweeted
Craziest thing I’ve learned the past few days is that Meteora is sniping its own tokens. I haven’t posted this before. As it seems almost unbelievable. Cause the platform made > $300M the past month and $40M on the day of Libra launch alone off fees. But this is what’s happening.
Pump retweeted
I'm fully out of SOL. All in on ETH and...fuck my life...Cardano.
RWA is going to be the power narrative.
Eth/Cardano/XRP have the power here. Cardano has the most upside.
Pump retweeted
So when you buy bitcoin ETFs you are a retard, idiot, traitor, know nothing about bitcoin. And Larry Fink (BlackRock CEO) is the devil.
But if you buy (Micro)Strategy you are a smart investor, great bitcoiner. And Michael Saylor is the Godfather of bitcoin.
Make it make sense!
Pump retweeted
Just another example of Bitcoin not fulling its supposed purpose. It's nothing more than a digital pyramid scheme, now resorting to political influence to force taxpayers into keep the scam going.
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I watched the entire LIBRA interview by Coffeezilla and summarized it below (it's damning):
- Complains about expert snipers who catch every launch early, so the plan was to take out enough liquidity so when the snipers sell it wouldn't crash the project, and Milei; other influencers would promote it again and inject the liquidity back in
- Hayden Davis is in direct control of the $100M withdrawn from the liquidity pool, but doesn't know what to do with it
- "It's a memecoin. It's foolish to full port into a memecoin."
- 2 people involved in the launch are from Argentina, KIP Protocol was going to run the "Foundation", and Davis was going to launch the coin
- "Milei has a deep desire to put everything financial on-chain. So, this was just an experiment."
- Dave Portnoy bought $5M of the coin 10 minutes after launch and lost the money, Davis paid him back $5M with his own personal funds
- "The idea of insiders to me is always bullshit... Crypto people are just angry unless you are a genius on-chain."
- "Insider trading on memecoins isn't illegal and every single KOL globally makes their money that way."
- C: "A wallet that launched the coin was linked to a sniper wallet, don't you think that's unfair?", D: "I would say No."
- "Most of the time we are sniping, we are attempting to avoid other snipers getting in."
- Davis was part of the Melania token launch and also sniped the Melania token launch, they "didn't make any money on it" because they didn't remove liquidity but they *SOLD* tokens
- "We sold. We didn't swap. Difference between them."
- "The best people in Crypto don't have an answer on the best way to make money cleanly from a memecoin launch."
- "All of Crypto is a zero-sum game. None of it has value. Whether it's a utility coin or a memecoin, all of it is dogshit."
- "I have 3 options with the $100M: A) Give it all to a non-profit and fk off. B) A refund (People will still be pissed, so I've been advised this is a terrible idea). C) Inject all the money back into the chart."
- "I don't benefit from any of this. It's crushed my entire reputation and I am worried for my life."
- "On Trump coin, people buying it made $500M. Not snipers, before it launched people had special access to buy at a private dinner."
Pump retweeted
might hit some feelings in a weird way, but maybe the biggest losers of the cycle are those who wanted to build real consumer apps on sol to end up watching it exclusively become the place developing countries launch rugs and the only projects tht won are apparatus for that
Pump retweeted
Anyone telling a billionaire their net worth would 10X instantly by launching a meme coin should be totally ignored.
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$SOL
Strong sweep of the highs followed by bearish FVG's pushing price lower during local downtrend. If we retest Monthly demand, sweep liquidity, and have a mostly untested bear FVG at 225~ as target, I'll take the long.
As always, simply planning ahead. Not calling for these prices tomorrow (or even this week who knows). Just preparing in case the scenario plays out.
Pump retweeted
$ETH (per request)
Potential cup and handle pattern no longer valid.
HTF shows potential double top. If it loses support then that would confirm and yield a measured target of around $1,200.
No breakdown currently though and it's sideways in a large consolidation
Pump retweeted
there's two kinds of nukes, there are nukes that result in V-bottoms + new highs, & there are nukes that break market structure to the downside and require an accumulation period after - am fairly certain this was the later for most coins & they now have overhead supply
