Erik retweeted
As someone who has personally spent $500k / mo+ on Google Ads for years, I can tell you with certainty:
This revenue growth in Search is artificial & extremely unhealthy for Google’s business long term
Search volumes are declining as legacy search is being increasingly cannibalized by non-monetized LLM queries
Google’s response?
Manufacture revenue growth via short-sighted, highly extractive, customer-hostile tactics. I.e. charge advertisers more for lower quality clicks, including clicks they do not want and explicitly did not approve Google to charge them for
A few examples to illustrate:
For all of its history until recently, Google operated on a 2nd price auction model
I.e. if you bid $5 CPC and the next highest bidder bids $1 CPC, Google charged you $1.01 for the click (one penny more than the 2nd highest bidder) rather than the $5 you bid
This was a genius move by Google early on as it incentivizes advertisers to input their true maximum willingness to pay rather than trying to play the game of bidding low and constantly adjusting to try to stay just ahead of the next highest bidder while still not paying too much
However recently, Google silently deprecated the 2nd price auction and began charging advertisers as much as their bid and budget caps allow, regardless of what anyone else is bidding
It’s a short-sighted cash grab at the expense of the long term health of the advertiser ecosystem
Making thing worse, Google also recently nerfed keyword targeting precision
Google previously had precise keyword targeting settings that allowed advertisers pick individual search phrases to bid on, defined down to the character w/ exact match or phrase match targeting
This was one of the core features that made search advertising magic, enabling advertisers to run extremely precise campaigns based on exactly what their target customer typed
But now, even if you bid on a specific term or phrase using the strictest exact
-match targeting settings, Google will show your ad across 1000’s of unrelated keywords, labeling them as as “exact match (close variant)”
The definition of “close variant” means whatever they want it to and changes constantly. The result is advertisers get billed for clicks that are totally irrelevant to their business and that their targeting settings explicitly forbid Google from targeting. Google does it anyway and there’s no ability to turn this off
So now exact match is broad match, and broad match is just meaningless spam
This is all very bad for advertisers, but for Google, it allows them to show your ad and bill you for clicks across 1000x more searches that were previously going unmonetized (mainly because they’re garbage queries no one wants)
This is how you grow revenue atop declining search volumes
Lastly, and perhaps most egregiously, Google quietly stopped respecting budget caps by a factor of 2x. For example campaigns we’ve been running for years with $1000 daily budget caps suddenly began spending $2000+ per day
And the extra spend is entirely on the garbage keywords Google arbitrarily throws in as “exact match (close variants)” which have no value to our business, but can’t be turned off
Google offers no refunds nor any recourse for overspend or spend on keywords you explicitly did not target
These are not the actions of a healthy business. These are the actions of company whose core business is in decline but desperately needs to pump quarterly earnings so Wall Street will continue to fund insane capex while hopefully looking through their rapidly deteriorating negative free cash flow
Google operated a benevolent monopoly for the better part of 25 yrs
Meaning the value Google captured from Search was but a small fraction of the value it created, and that spread produced a potential energy that justified expectations of high earnings growth far, far into the future
This is now no longer the case
At the alter of AI capex, Google is sacrificing the golden goose
Q2 was an amazing quarter, with our AI investments redefining what’s possible across every part of our business.
Alphabet revenue grew 24% YoY and Google Cloud accelerated to 82% growth. We saw exciting momentum across the board from Search to YouTube to the Gemini app (which reached 950M monthly active users). Our model APIs are processing 22B tokens/min (up from 16B+ last quarter) driven by our workhorse Flash models. We’re also seeing great adoption of Gemini Enterprise, used by 90% of the Fortune 100, as well as strong demand for our security solutions.
Outstanding results and momentum, and such an exciting moment—thanks to all of our partners and employees around the world! 🙌 About to hop on the call!
Erik retweeted
This man speaks for most Americans. Working his ass off and he can hardly pay his mortgage, feed his kids, and he wishes he could be home to tuck them in at night.
And some stupid little punk tried to use him for a social media stunt.
This man’s truthful rant sums it all up.
Erik retweeted
Italian actors recreating Caravaggio paintings.
#HappyTuesday 🧙🧹
Erik retweeted
If you think San Francisco is only 4-5 years behind NYC culturally then you are a philistine idiot. San Francisco is decades behind NYC and anyone with an iota of taste in their body knows this. NYC clears SF in food, night life, music, arts, fashion, urbanism, walkability, intellectual spaces, and exposed brick walls. If you have observed how people in the two cities even just dress and carry themselves you know it's a hydrogen bomb vs coughing baby situation. NYC has comedy clubs, theater, and intellectual life spanning EVERYTHING, not just AI and tech. In New York I can go see a play, get dinner in a dimly lit restaurant, and then get drinks with my friends for like $500. You can't do that in SF. In NYC I can go to a party in Brooklyn and meet amazing experimental visual artists who really don't like getting asked if their parents pay for their nice 1 bedrooms. Yesterday I went bar hopping during the day to catch all the Big 10 football games which is becoming a huge cultural mainstay in Manhattan. Yeah, we're culturally and intellectually superior to San Francisco tech nerds. Do I even need to mention the subway?
Erik retweeted
the cowardly thing about John Oliver in my opinion is that he never ever ever ever ever challenges the biases of his overwhelmingly liberal audience or presents them with any information that might cause them to question their existing beliefs. it’s all just partisan comfort food
HBO's @LastWeekTonight has a long track record of citing social science findings without the appropriate context, massaging them to support whatever point @iamjohnoliver is trying to make.
Erik retweeted
Some people online have started telling Japan to "go drink tap water." As an insult.
It took Japanese people a while to even understand why.
In much of the world, drinking from the tap means you can't afford bottled water. Or that you're about to get sick.
In Japan, you can drink straight from the tap almost anywhere. It has to pass 51 national quality standards. Tokyo loses only about 3% of its water to leaks. London and Paris lose around 20%.
A 1970 bestseller famously said the Japanese believe "Mizu to anzen wa tada." Water and safety are free.
It was meant as a warning. Neither one is free. People work every day, out of sight, to keep them that way.
When I first saw the insult, my honest reaction was:
"I already do. What's the insult?"
Erik retweeted
As a Chinese person, this is the most objective and fair take I've seen on China's economy.
This is the real situation we're in right now. It's even worse than this. The other bad parts aren't even in the article.
This is how bad it actually is.
#China #Economy #Markets #AI
🚨 CHINA IS FACING A GENERATIONAL CRISIS, AND THE NUMBERS ARE ABSOLUTELY TERRIFYING.
China's economy is struggling so badly that millions of young people are finding it almost impossible to build a stable future.
According to The Wall Street Journal, a generation that grew up believing hard work guaranteed success is now facing unemployment, layoffs, falling wages and growing financial pressure.
And the numbers are shocking.
• Youth unemployment among 16–24 year olds has reached nearly 19%, almost double the U.S. rate of 9%.
• Unemployment among 25–29 year olds stands at 7.5%, compared with China's overall rate of around 5%.
• A record 12.7 MILLION students graduated from Chinese colleges this year, entering an already struggling job market.
• China's urban employment is estimated to be 37 MILLION JOBS BELOW where it would have been if pre-pandemic job growth had continued.
• One Chinese economist estimates that the country's broader unemployment rate could actually be around 10%, nearly double the official figure.
But unemployment is only part of the problem.
China's property market collapse has destroyed jobs in construction, real estate and related industries.
Major technology companies, including Alibaba and ByteDance, have reportedly been cutting staff.
And now AI is making the situation even worse.
According to the WSJ, some of China's biggest employers privately estimated that AI could eliminate 30% OR MORE of their existing jobs.
A study covering 700 MILLION job postings found that AI has hit hiring demand particularly hard for workers with just 1–3 years of experience.
Even entry level jobs that once helped graduates start their careers are disappearing.
Meanwhile, the number of Chinese workers in temporary and gig jobs is expected to jump from 280 MILLION in 2025 to 320 MILLION in 2026.
That would represent more than 40% of urban employment.
And the impact is already spreading beyond the job market.
Young people are delaying marriage, avoiding having children and moving back in with their parents because they cannot afford to live independently.
Some are even giving up on traditional careers altogether.
China spent decades building an economy where each generation expected to become wealthier than the last.
Now millions of young people are questioning whether years of education and hard work are even worth it.
This is a serious problem for the world's second largest economy.
Weak employment means weaker consumer spending, fewer families being formed and even more pressure on China's already struggling property market.
The biggest danger for China isn't just slowing economic growth. It's an entire generation losing confidence in its economic future.
And if millions of young people continue to struggle to find stable jobs, China's economic problems could become much harder to fix.
Erik retweeted
The U.S. Pharmaceutical Industry Is Having Its Own "DeepSeek Moment"
If you want to survive, you’d better be Chinese—or head to China for help!
*The Washington Post* shared a true story about Max Doppelt, a resident of New York City. He doesn’t appear to be short on funds: his 60-year-old mother, Debbie, is a jeweler, and he himself is a computer engineer.
In 2023, Debbie—who had suffered from a persistent cough—was diagnosed with non-small cell lung cancer. It was a rare form, characterized by a specific genetic mutation and more commonly found in non-smokers. Although she promptly underwent chemotherapy and immunotherapy, the cancer continued to progress, and by late 2024, it had metastasized to her brain.
Desperate, Max began searching for a targeted therapy—a drug that could address the root cause of the cancer more effectively. One option he looked into carried significant side effects and was largely ineffective against cancer cells that had already spread to the brain. Just as he was nearing despair, a doctor mentioned another targeted therapy that could potentially help his mother—but there was a catch: it wasn't yet approved for use in the United States. At the time, the drug was still in the final stages of clinical trials.
The doctor explained that the drug had been developed by a Chinese company and had already received regulatory approval in China back in 2023—where it was also covered by the national health insurance system, benefiting many patients.
"It’s a shame your mother isn’t Chinese," the doctor remarked. "If she were, she could simply walk into a pharmacy in China and buy it." Upon learning that the drug was already available in China, Max and his mother reached out to friends and family to see if they could help procure it. A few months later, Max flew to Shanghai himself, where he spent over $10,000 to purchase 26 boxes of the medication. The drug proved effective in stabilizing his mother’s condition, specifically by bringing the cancer that had spread to her brain under control. But Max is not the only American doing this. He told *The Washington Post* that at least 30 other Americans have also traveled to China to obtain this targeted therapy. "China has grown into a biotechnology powerhouse," *The Washington Post* noted, describing a phenomenon that might seem "counterintuitive" to many Americans. "In 2025, as much as 46% of the new drugs entering human clinical trials globally originated in China. U.S. pharmaceutical companies are conducting trials for new therapies in China and have signed multi-billion-dollar partnership agreements with Chinese firms to co-develop and market drugs."
A vast talent pool—bolstered by the return of professionals from abroad—along with high efficiency and cost-effectiveness in R&D and clinical trials, combined with strong official emphasis and policy support for the biotech sector, are all accelerating China’s progress in this field. This, in turn, is attracting a large number of overseas companies—including American pharmaceutical firms—to expand their operations in China.
Erik retweeted
In Spanish:
Santa Fe (New Mexico) means holy faith
Albuquerque is named after the Spanish Duke of Alburquerque
Nevada means snow
Las Vegas is meadows
Florida is named after La Florida, or the flowery one
Los Angeles is “the angels”
California is actually from Spanish literature but is derived from Khalifa in Arabic, meaning “caliph” or leader. Note the closeness to Caliphate lol
San Diego, San Francisco, San Antonio, are Spanish Catholic saints.
Sacramento means sacrament
Colorado means colored with a red tint
Texas is Tejas, named by Mexicans from the Cado Native American word taysha
El Paso is “the pass” referring to the mountain pass along the Rio Grande (big river)
I could go on…
Trump will stay busy renaming and making the U.S. basic and boring like the food without ethnic spice. Pretty fitting for this administration. 🤡
Erik retweeted
“China is bombarding European markets with electric cars, solar panels, wind turbines and other products”, warns the Economist.
What a terrifying prospect it is, to be bombarded with affordable clean energy and cheap electric cars, at a time when we’re supposed to be dealing with a climate emergency and a cost-of-living crisis.
The whole leader reads like a war briefing: “economic warfare”, “second-strike trade weapons”. China is the enemy, and solar panels are the guns!
This is another example of the Chinese being very strange imperialists. After all, bombardment from the Western powers usually comes in the form of, well, bombs.
Yugoslavia: 78 days of NATO bombing in 1999, including depleted uranium and cluster munitions.
Afghanistan: two decades of US-led war, topped off with the first-ever combat use of the “Mother of All Bombs”.
Iraq: “shock and awe”, depleted uranium, white phosphorus in Fallujah, hundreds of thousands dead.
Libya: a NATO air campaign that turned the country with the highest living standards in Africa into a failed state with open slave markets.
Iran: Now in the eighth month of the criminal US-Israeli war.
China’s version of “bombardment” consists of goods that Europe wants and needs.
Europe’s real economic problem is that its industry stopped investing, its governments embraced austerity, privatisation and financialisation, and its energy policy was handed to Washington. China kept planning and building. That really didn’t need to be a “China shock”.
Erik retweeted
《半裸でスタバ利用の外国人に突撃》
コーヒーも購入せずいきなり席に座った外国人は上半身裸。外国人を入れまくる維新の会の政治にうんざり。こうして日本の国体が崩壊していく。大阪は地獄。私は1人でも抗います。応援宜しくお願いします。
Erik retweeted
S&P 500 had its worst one day crash in history on October 19th, 1987.
It crashed 20.5% on that day.
Tomorrow is October 19th, and it is also a Monday.
Erik retweeted
Either the AI bubble will pop, which will create a Great Depression-level market crash.
Or the AI valuations will be justified, which only works if AI replaces a huge number of workers and we get massive unemployment.
Either way, we are headed towards a monumental crisis.
Erik retweeted
Wow the audience is LOLing
WATCH: Andy Harris has a crash out after his constituents laugh at him for trying to blame higher gas prices on... Democrats.
"You are rude!" #MD01
Erik retweeted
Ran an unbiased deep analysis on CoreWeave $CRWV asking to use current financials, growth, leverage, and hype by analysts, to find the company most analogous during the internet/telecom bubble…
I have no idea who Exodus Communications was, but it didn’t end well and CoreWeave is already far worse off. All NeoClouds are.
$NBIS $IREN $ORCL
Erik retweeted
Every now and then, people living in cities like NYC, Miami, San Francisco, LA, and San Diego have to remind themselves of how unusual their lives are compared to the rest of the country:
- Being single after 30 is not normal
- Dating around hooking up after 25 is not normal
- Partying on weekends is not normal after 25
- Going out to bars and clubs after 35 is just outright weird
- "Figuring it out" in your 40s is just strange
- Not being married with kids by 35 is low class behavior
- "Reinveting" yourself after 40 is crazy talk
It may fly in NYC, it isn't flying in 98% of the US.
Erik retweeted
Great graphic. The world can choose to isolate the US.
Mapped: The Economies Most Dependent on U.S. Trade
Visual Capitalist
substackfwd.xyz/?url=https%3…
