I break down DeFi products, yields and the risks behind the numbers. Lending, stablecoins, perps. Own charts & onchain checks
DMs open for research & collab
Joined July 2023
- Tweets37.5K
- Following1.8K
- Followers6.8K
- Likes65.8K
the Binance hacker's rush to sell was part of it
shortly before Tether started freezing, he sold $325M of $USDT for $ETH in roughly 15 minutes, about $47M below OKX's average price at the time
the bot that filled his $75M order sent 1,070 $ETH, worth $2.4M, straight to the block builder, while his known wallets spent under 2 $ETH on gas all night
a bad deal for him, but still better than the $0 he got for the $2B that Tether and Circle froze in his main wallet
a couple of hours later, the 9% did its job
about $90M of new $USDC came into Aave's Ethereum market, while borrowing stayed at about $2.02B
now about $92M can be withdrawn, and the rate is down to 5.3%, most of the way back to last week's 4.6% average
$USDT there is still 98% borrowed and pays about 8%, so that's the one i'd watch now
since the Binance hack, $USDC on @aave went from under 5% to over 9%
i checked Aave's Ethereum market, and 99.9% of the $2.02B of $USDC supplied there is borrowed, which leaves only about $2M that all depositors together can withdraw right now
$USDC rates on Fluid and Jupiter Lend more than doubled too, to about 13% and 15%, though the data doesn't show who is borrowing it all
the rate climbs like this on purpose, to attract new deposits and get borrowers to repay, and until that happens withdrawals beyond that $2M have to wait
if you might need your stables back fast, Sky's $sUSDS still pays 3.8% with exit at any time
since the Binance hack, $USDC on @aave went from under 5% to over 9%
i checked Aave's Ethereum market, and 99.9% of the $2.02B of $USDC supplied there is borrowed, which leaves only about $2M that all depositors together can withdraw right now
$USDC rates on Fluid and Jupiter Lend more than doubled too, to about 13% and 15%, though the data doesn't show who is borrowing it all
the rate climbs like this on purpose, to attract new deposits and get borrowers to repay, and until that happens withdrawals beyond that $2M have to wait
if you might need your stables back fast, Sky's $sUSDS still pays 3.8% with exit at any time
if your Aerodrome LP is still staked, it has earned nothing since oct 22
a week after the merge, the old Aerodrome and Velodrome pools still hold about $165M, as much as all the new @aeroxyz pools, per DefiLlama
staked positions give their trading fees away in return for token rewards, and those rewards stopped when Aero launched
DefiLlama's income statement for Aero shows about $183K of those fees stuck in the old gauges since the last payout on oct 15
unstaking alone starts paying you trading fees, and the new pools let you pick fees or $AERO rewards
the main $AERO/$USDC pool on @aeroxyz paid about 100% in $AERO when i posted this, now it pays about 27%
the pool grew from $10.7M to $25.6M as money moved over, about $50M has left the old Aerodrome and Velodrome pools since this post
the old pools still hold about $260M per DefiLlama, two thirds of all the liquidity
my guess is a lot of that stays there for weeks, anyone who didn't move while the new pool paid 100% probably isn't watching it
the Binance hacker's Aave loan can be liquidated if $ETH rises 6%
he put $60M of stolen $USDT into @aave, then borrowed 19,763 $ETH against it, so Tether can't freeze that $ETH
i checked the position onchain at 12:00 UTC, and once $ETH passes about $2,366, liquidators can start repaying his loan and taking his $USDT plus a bonus
a post calling this move genius has over 1.5M views, while the genius has $60M of $USDT locked in Aave for about $44M of $ETH
Binance lost more in one night than 321 crypto hacks took this year
by @DefiLlama's count, the other 321 hacks in 2026 total about $2.4B, while the Binance hack alone is $6.36B
even after more than $2.5B got frozen, the rest is still bigger than those 321 hacks combined
Binance says it may have started with one engineer's laptop and promises to cover all user losses
that's one expensive laptop
Earn+ gets to 12% by borrowing 10 times what you deposit
the vault puts your money in $USDe on @aave on Avalanche, borrows $USDT against it and buys more $USDe until it holds about $11 for each $1 of yours, which leaves only a few percent of room before liquidation
plain $USDe earns nothing there, so the income is a reward of about 5.75% a year paid in $USDe, minus about 3.4% for the $USDT loan
since the loan is 10 times your deposit, every 0.1% move in the loan rate or the reward moves your yield by about 1%, so at a 4% loan rate your 12% falls to about 6%
that reward is a fixed pot shared by everyone supplying $USDe there, and the current campaign is set to end on oct 30 unless it's renewed
so Earn+ beats the plain Ethena Pay balance, which pays up to 6%, only while the reward keeps running and the loan stays cheap
in under an hour, Tether and Circle froze $2B that left Binance
i went through the onchain data, and it starts at 20:24 UTC when $1.6B in $USDT left a Binance hot wallet
Tether blacklisted the address that got it 37 minutes later, 14 minutes before CZ posted about it, and Circle froze the $823M in $USDC there 3 minutes after Tether
for comparison, the biggest Tether freeze i could find before this was $344M in april
at 21:44 another $200M in $USDT went from the same Binance wallet to the frozen address, so money was still leaving that wallet 29 minutes after CZ's post
i think a lot of people hedged their $BNB on Hyperliquid today
open $BNB perp positions on @HyperliquidX doubled between 17:20 and 21:30 UTC, from about $46M to $93M
right now a $10,000 short there pays longs about $50 a day, the most in at least a month
Hyperliquid usually does about a tenth of OKX's $BNB perp volume, but from 20:00 to 21:50 UTC it did more, $213M vs $132M
if you're worried about Binance, you don't hedge your $BNB on Binance
one word from Elon just moved hyperliquid:native as much as the owner of the NYSE did
first 10 minutes after each post today:
- ICE says it's investing in @tradexyz: +$650M
- Druckenmiller says he's an investor too: +$200M
- Elon quotes him with "Interesting": +$650M
that's about $60M per letter
$2.7B for a press release
that's what $HYPE added in 3 hours after ICE said it's backing @tradexyz, an app on Hyperliquid
trade․xyz brings Hyperliquid under $56M a year in fees today, so the market just priced in ~50 years of them before lunch
for a US launch the CFTC hasn't approved yet
still, this is huge
Growing up in the United States, NYSE was synonymous with the story of American capitalism. I vividly remember learning about the Buttonwood agreement in 9th grade history class. 24 stockbrokers met under a tree on Wall Street and formed the beginning of what would become the world's financial center. From pits to computers to now onchain markets, America has always led the way in innovating markets to improve price discovery and capital formation. Today the next chapter begins with ICE, trade[XYZ], and Hyperliquid.
ICE started as an electricity-trading platform in 2000, growing to acquire NYSE itself in only 13 years. It is a key infrastructure provider of America’s energy, bond, and mortgage markets. ICE is a rare story of exponential growth of a financial giant over decades, continually embracing innovation and technology.
trade[XYZ] was the first HIP-3 deployer and responsible for spearheading the flourishing global RWA perpetual market today. Only a year ago, trade[XYZ] launched its first RWA perpetual markets. They took a bet on HIP-3, which had just launched after months of tireless development. Having followed their journey from day 1, I cannot overstate how much Shoku and the team have poured into growing these markets to a genuine source of price discovery for the most important assets in the world.
Over the past three years, Hyperliquid has pioneered onchain infrastructure to house all of finance. Hyperliquid is nothing without its world-class builders. I am honored that trade[XYZ] and ICE have chosen to build on Hyperliquid to bring perpetual contracts to America.
When I first spoke to Jeff Sprecher around a year ago, he asked what success looks like to me. I thought for some time and joked that it would be seeing ICE building on Hyperliquid's technology. I could never have predicted the progress that we've made as a community in a single year to make this come true. Excited to see what we can build together next.
Aero's $MSTR pool shows 2,510% APR in $AERO rewards and 1,489% in fees
but the same money can't earn both, and i'd have added them up if i hadn't read the docs
the @aeroxyz docs say each deposit earns either $AERO or a share of the trading fees, depending on the option you pick
if you take the $AERO rewards, all the fees from your deposit go to the sAERO holders who direct those rewards to the pool
if you take the fees, sAERO holders still get part of them
both numbers are the current rate stretched over a year, and neither counts what happens to your position when $MSTR moves
i mapped who gets paid when you trade on 13 of the biggest perp DEXs ↓
traders paid these 13 about $112M in fees over the last 30 days, and $69M of that went to token holders through buybacks or staking rewards
$62M of the $69M came from @HyperliquidX alone, where about 80% of its fees are spent buying back $HYPE
i expected Hyperliquid to lead, but not by this much
on Jupiter and GMX, most of what you pay goes to the LP pools that take the other side of your trade
7 of the 13 don't have a token yet, which means their fees stay with the protocol or its LP vault
together they took about $15M in fees over the same 30 days, roughly what Hyperliquid spends on $HYPE buybacks in a week
ICE, the owner of the NYSE, is investing in @tradexyz
together they plan a new regulated US market for perps on @HyperliquidX, which can open only after the CFTC approves it
in the last 24h the markets @tradexyz runs today made up almost half of Hyperliquid's perp volume, about $4.5B vs $5.2B on Hyperliquid's own perps
i didn't expect a second US plan for Hyperliquid perps only three days after Kraken announced its own
trade[XYZ] and ICE, owner of the New York Stock Exchange, are joining forces to bring 24/7 perpetual futures on Hyperliquid to the United States.
In just over a year, our markets on Hyperliquid have surpassed $650 billion in volume. They provide continuous price discovery for stocks, indices, and commodities, and have become trusted reference points for retail and institutions alike when traditional markets are closed. Much of the world trades them. Until now, Americans could only watch.
We intend to change that. Subject to CFTC approval, trade[XYZ] and ICE plan to establish a new, dedicated U.S. market, with novel exchange and clearing infrastructure built on Hyperliquid. Planned contracts span equities, indices, commodities, FX, and crypto, with access through participating brokers and platforms. We’ll share more on products, eligibility, and timing as approvals progress.
ICE brings more than 25 years of experience operating regulated markets, clearing, and managing risk. trade[XYZ] brings the product development, market design, and technology behind the most liquid and robust markets on Hyperliquid.
Innovation and the protections of U.S. regulation shouldn’t be a trade-off. Together, we plan to prove it.
ICE is making a strategic investment in trade[XYZ] and joins us in building towards the future of Hyperliquid. A small group of market luminaries is joining as well, beginning with Stan Druckenmiller. For more than four decades, few investors have anticipated the great turns in markets as often as Stan. We’re proud to have him with us for the next one.
We’re building the U.S. market in parallel with our existing HIP-3 markets, which we’ll continue to expand and innovate on. We expect both to flourish. They each have a long road map ahead, from new asset classes to new ways to trade them.
To the Hyperliquid community, whether you were here before us or came because of us, thank you. You took a chance on new markets and you made them matter. You’ll forever be a part of this story.
Anything. Anytime. On ICE[XYZ].
perps on Pump can cost about 3x what Hyperliquid charges directly
Pump's terms allow a fee of up to 0.10% of the order each time you open, add to or close a position, on top of Hyperliquid's own fee
on a $10,000 market order that's up to $14.50 in total vs about $4.50 on Hyperliquid itself
with 10x leverage you pay it on the full $10,000 even if you only put in $1,000
MetaMask, Trust Wallet and Phantom already offer Hyperliquid perps with their own fee on top, and each took about $1.3–1.5M from it in the last 30 days
Pumpfun x @HyperliquidX
Perps are live on the Pumpfun app!
Long or short crypto, stocks & commodities on the biggest onchain perps engine, straight from your USDC balance. No bridging required.
Learn more 👇
a week later, only 3 of these DeFi tokens beat $USDC on Aave ↓
$HYPE dropped out, its market cap rose 10% since oct 22 and its buybacks fell 4%, so $100 of $HYPE now earns about $4.10 a year, under the $4.30 from $USDC on Aave
$SKY and $PUMP went up for the opposite reason, their market caps fell 13-15% while their payouts barely changed
a higher number in this list can just mean the token got cheaper
half of the biggest DeFi tokens pay their holders nothing right now
out of the 14 DeFi tokens above $1B market cap, here's what $100 of each earns you in a year from buybacks, burns and fee payouts, at the last 30 days' pace:
- $PUMP: about $17
- $JST: about $8.40, it burns once a quarter
- $HYPE from @HyperliquidX: about $4.70
- $SKY from @SkyEcosystem: about $4
- $JUP: about $2.70
- $UNI from @Uniswap: about $2.30
- $ASTER: about $1.90
- $LINK, $AAVE, $ENA, $ONDO, $MORPHO, $RAIN, $BTW: $0
for comparison, $100 of $USDC on @aave earns about $3.80, so only the top 4 beat a plain stablecoin deposit
$AAVE paused its buybacks in april after the rsETH incident, and $ENA's fee switch only turns on once $USDe supply reaches $7.5B, it's at about $4.7B now
$STONK buybacks are down to about a tenth of late september
per DefiLlama, StonkFun spent about $680K a day buying $STONK on sep 18-30, and about $73K a day over the last 7 days
about 60% of its revenue goes to buybacks, so they'll only grow back if the launch spike shows up in revenue
$STONK is COOKING again
While everyone wrote it off after losing share to Pump, avg revenue stayed above $150K/day (reclaimed 17% launchpad share)
Now STONK up 16% today back above $120M mcap
Daily launches spiked from 400 to over 3k in a single day, the highest since early October
whole ecosystem moved with it: $SI +60%, $KNOTS +44%, $ZCAT +8%
Doesn’t need to flip Pump, just needs to hold 10-15% share with consistent revenue
Did you buy the dip?
Chainlink brings S&P risk grades to the $10B lending vault market
the @chainlink integration is live on @base first, though the announcement doesn't name a single graded vault yet
a grade rates the risk of losing money in a vault, and S&P says it doesn't comment on how much the vault pays
until your vault has a grade, you can check what S&P looks at yourself:
- what the vault's strategy lets it put money into
- whether it can pay out withdrawals on time and without losses
- who manages it, who can change its settings, and how quickly
- which chain and protocol it depends on
ROAD TO Link:NYC 🗽
NEW: Chainlink brings Vault Risk Assessments onchain with @SPGlobalRatings, the global credit rating agency.
Now live on @base, the integration brings independent vault risk analysis to the $10B lending vault market, deploying them according to defined strategies, working much like managed fixed income funds.
This integration of DataLink and CRE expands Chainlink’s existing collaboration with S&P Global Ratings, which previously brought its Stablecoin Stability Assessments onchain.
the IP Vault targets 5-9% a year, but a fast exit costs 5%
you deposit $ipUSD on @soneium and get shares in a vault that holds a tokenized piece of a Partners Group royalties fund
about 63% of that fund is media like South Park and music like The Weeknd's catalog, while gas and pharma royalties make up most of the rest
the free way out is a queue, and the docs say it can take about six months in the worst case, because the fund behind the vault pays out withdrawals only once a quarter
the fast exit takes 5% of what you withdraw and only works if the vault has enough cash for it
so it fits money you won't need for a year or more, since one fast exit eats half or more of a year's target yield
