Melbourne, Australia
Joined October 2014
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so you are has gone from $24 to $13 so thats a good sign.
all top chances imo, but really half the field could win.
it is possible the trend rate of change in household deposits has bottomed and is about to head higher, a typically bearish sign. one to watch over the next 3 months
it is also possible the decline in house prices slows slightly through december, but then the next round of lagged rate hike impacts will do their work in 2027 and where it stops, nobody knows. we could see a slowing economy and falling prices which will be "scary"
we could see a temporary slowing in the trend decline of net worth this month, mainly due to XJO being weak this time last year. the coality daily house price went from -4.7% yesterday to -5.1% today, so no trend change there
i agree that certain crimes deserve the death penalty as a punishment. i also think that certain crimes have default jail terms with no leniency, ie, murder = 30 years default. crime would fall when all the scum are locked up instead of bailed constantly
news.com.au/national/crime/t…
gone early bendigo R6
Jokers grin $46 (3% chance vs 2.4% implied)
Ka Ying Cheer $11 (10.4% vs 9.8%)
Wingsandpropellers $13 (13.7% vs 8.3%)
Fav too short, good sectionals, first up and barrier:
Yes Yoshi $2.84 (25.5% (($3.92)) vs 35% implied)
lot of RBA hand wringing today, here is what has happened previously:
CR>>CPI
Econ breaks
RBA cuts with CPI >>target
CPI follows
however, they really stuffed up covid era
if you think the econ will slow, then they will be cutting soon (~Q2 27) and CPI will follow
Dutching Vauban and The Euphrates in the Geelong Cup, clearly the best two imo.
Wooton Verni not the worst at longer odds if it can run the trip, worth thinking an EW play.
LITZDEEL should be peaking so a decent chance here.
People on the left have been making this face an awful lot the last week. Come back to the middle, and reality where you can question and query each individual thing on its merit
the current trend in net worth is a little worse than 2011 but not as bad as 2008. cycles roughly average around 12 months with a bottom around 5-6 months.
either way, some pain is coming in 2027, but how much?
the biggest risk is the RBA not cutting quickly enough
the scariest part about the left going off the rails and allowing chaos is there are no good opposing candidates to vote for.
dark days