german swing trader | orderflow analyst | quantitative trading | not financial advice
London
Joined October 2025
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📊 $BTC HTF Plan Update
My previous base-case scenario has played out.
Now that we've reached the critical $77.2K nPOC, it's time to reassess the situation and outline my expectations heading into November.
Full positioning, analysis and trades below 👇🧵
📊 $BTC HTF Case Study & Analysis
I’m approaching BTC through three scenarios: a corrective continuation, a bullish re-accumulation, and a deeper bearish markdown.
Here’s how I’m positioning myself for each.
📉 Base Case: Corrective Distribution
We remain in a corrective price distribution. Value is gradually migrating lower, with local ranges shifting downwards. From an Auction Market Theory perspective, this suggests that the market is increasingly accepting lower prices.
That said, we have to acknowledge the underlying bullish strength. Despite the distribution, we haven’t seen an immediate, impulsive markdown following the range.
My positioning:
• Swing short opened in the upper regions.
• Small hedge longs built continuously to capture local opportunities and protect against upside continuation.
I’m currently holding a hedge long that has already offered additional profit opportunities and has been secured to break-even.
The Target -> $77.2K
This is a key area where I expect the market could react, potentially initiating another accumulation phase before the next leg higher.
📈 Bull Case: Re-accumulation
The bullish scenario starts right here, within the current range.
What I need to see is an impulsive markup to the upside. This would suggest that the current range is a prolonged re-accumulation rather than distribution.
My hedge long provides exposure to this scenario.
However, I currently assign it a lower probability than my base case, which is why I’m only hedged with one position.
📉 Bear Case: Deeper Markdown
This scenario initially follows the base case, but with one crucial difference: BTC leaves the current range through a clear markdown.
In that event, I would expect the $77.2K nPOC to potentially fail as support, opening the door for further downside and a redistribution of value at lower levels.
A revisit to sub-$70K would then become a possibility, particularly if price moves to fill the inefficiencies below.
My existing swing short provides exposure to this scenario.
⚖️ Conclusion: Probabilities Over Predictions
I’ve structured my positioning to account for all three scenarios.
I don’t need to know with certainty which direction BTC will take. I need to understand the possible outcomes, assess their probabilities, and position accordingly.
As a quantitative trader, my focus is on Expected Value, risk management, and extracting value from the market over a large sample of trades.
To the perma-bulls and perma-bears fighting it out on X: have fun.
I’ll stick to the probabilities. 📊
GM ☕️
Overnight, $BTC swept the current range lows before reverting back inside and completing yet another value rotation to the upside.
📊 Order Flow
This is where things get interesting.
Following the sweep, sellers quickly ran out of fuel and failed to keep price below the range boundaries. As a result, a decent number of aggressive shorts ended up trapped right at the lows.
What followed was a textbook reversion:
Aggressive longs pushed price back inside value, using trapped shorts as additional fuel to drive the move higher and complete another value rotation.
This is a trade I would have liked to take. Unfortunately, the Asia session is simply inaccessible to me when these moves happen in the middle of the night.
📍 Plan
Going forward, I'll still stick to the mindset of "range until clearly proven otherwise."
That means potential local resistance still needs to be taken seriously. I won't assume that this upside rotation automatically translates into a broader bullish breakout.
Let's see how price develops from here. 🤝
tim | quant retweeted
📊 $BTC HTF Plan Update
My previous base-case scenario has played out.
Now that we've reached the critical $77.2K nPOC, it's time to reassess the situation and outline my expectations heading into November.
Full positioning, analysis and trades below 👇🧵
📊 $BTC HTF Case Study & Analysis
I’m approaching BTC through three scenarios: a corrective continuation, a bullish re-accumulation, and a deeper bearish markdown.
Here’s how I’m positioning myself for each.
📉 Base Case: Corrective Distribution
We remain in a corrective price distribution. Value is gradually migrating lower, with local ranges shifting downwards. From an Auction Market Theory perspective, this suggests that the market is increasingly accepting lower prices.
That said, we have to acknowledge the underlying bullish strength. Despite the distribution, we haven’t seen an immediate, impulsive markdown following the range.
My positioning:
• Swing short opened in the upper regions.
• Small hedge longs built continuously to capture local opportunities and protect against upside continuation.
I’m currently holding a hedge long that has already offered additional profit opportunities and has been secured to break-even.
The Target -> $77.2K
This is a key area where I expect the market could react, potentially initiating another accumulation phase before the next leg higher.
📈 Bull Case: Re-accumulation
The bullish scenario starts right here, within the current range.
What I need to see is an impulsive markup to the upside. This would suggest that the current range is a prolonged re-accumulation rather than distribution.
My hedge long provides exposure to this scenario.
However, I currently assign it a lower probability than my base case, which is why I’m only hedged with one position.
📉 Bear Case: Deeper Markdown
This scenario initially follows the base case, but with one crucial difference: BTC leaves the current range through a clear markdown.
In that event, I would expect the $77.2K nPOC to potentially fail as support, opening the door for further downside and a redistribution of value at lower levels.
A revisit to sub-$70K would then become a possibility, particularly if price moves to fill the inefficiencies below.
My existing swing short provides exposure to this scenario.
⚖️ Conclusion: Probabilities Over Predictions
I’ve structured my positioning to account for all three scenarios.
I don’t need to know with certainty which direction BTC will take. I need to understand the possible outcomes, assess their probabilities, and position accordingly.
As a quantitative trader, my focus is on Expected Value, risk management, and extracting value from the market over a large sample of trades.
To the perma-bulls and perma-bears fighting it out on X: have fun.
I’ll stick to the probabilities. 📊
GM ☕️
$BTC hasn't changed much overnight.
So far, my base case of a potential range forming around 77k is starting to play out. As a result, I'll primarily be looking for intraday long opportunities throughout the day.
That said, I also have to acknowledge the current bearish momentum. I don't want to get caught trying to catch a falling knife, so any intraday positions will require strong structural confirmation before I commit.
Wishing everyone a successful day in the markets! 🤝
$BTC Local Value Rotation Complete ✅
As outlined in this morning’s update, the loss of dVWAP and the inability of buyers to generate meaningful upside progress led me to shift my intraday bias bearish.
On the subsequent retest of dVWAP, I entered an intraday short.
The underlying thesis was fairly straightforward: a retracement of the poor weekend price action, which had gradually pushed BTC higher without establishing meaningful acceptance. These weekend moves often tend to retrace during the following trading week.
The result? Almost zero drawdown and a satisfying 3.2R secured to start November.
HTF Context 📊
So far, BTC is behaving exactly as outlined in my higher-timeframe expectations, with price continuing to range around the 77.2k nPOC.
Looking ahead, I will continue to approach the intraweekly structure with a range-based mentality.
No need to anticipate a breakout before the market actually proves one.
Take what the market offers. Stay adaptable.
GM ☕️
$BTC is starting Monday with a sweep of the last significant high.
Within this move, we're seeing the first warning sign: aggressive longs getting trapped as they enter directly into resistance.
Price initially reacted to the downside and lost dVWAP. If buyers fail to reclaim it quickly, I'll have to adopt a more bearish intraday outlook.
📊 Order Flow
Overall, broader weekend price action was rather inconclusive from an order-flow perspective.
Delta remained balanced, while OI stayed largely net neutral. Price mostly displayed choppy behaviour throughout its slow grind higher.
Let's see what the new week (and the first NY Open of the month) brings! 🤝
GM ☕️
$BTC is starting Monday with a sweep of the last significant high.
Within this move, we're seeing the first warning sign: aggressive longs getting trapped as they enter directly into resistance.
Price initially reacted to the downside and lost dVWAP. If buyers fail to reclaim it quickly, I'll have to adopt a more bearish intraday outlook.
📊 Order Flow
Overall, broader weekend price action was rather inconclusive from an order-flow perspective.
Delta remained balanced, while OI stayed largely net neutral. Price mostly displayed choppy behaviour throughout its slow grind higher.
Let's see what the new week (and the first NY Open of the month) brings! 🤝
5/ ⚖️ How I'm Adjusting My Positioning
Here's how I've adjusted my exposure:
• 20R+ short: Fully closed. The trade has now been realised.
• Swing short from the $86K region: 70% closed, with the remaining 30% kept open to maintain exposure in case the bear scenario develops. The stop has been moved into profit, above the last major swing high.
• First swing long: Opened around $77K through an automatic trigger.
As of now, my overall exposure is approximately delta-neutral between the remaining swing short and the newly opened swing long.
This is intentional.
Once I start seeing clear signs of accumulation developing, I'll be willing to gradually increase the size of my swing long.
If we instead lose the $74.9K low, my next major swing long opportunity will likely be around the relevant Fibonacci retracement zone or the nPOCs below.
Quite likely Not all of these will be triggered. I do not have limits for them either. An entry for me always means checking the Orderflow Confirmation at the corresponding level. I will never enter blindly without Context
None of this is financial advice. I'm simply sharing how I'm personally approaching the market and which setups I'm taking. I strongly advise against blindly copy-trading any of these positions.
GM ☕️
$BTC continues to slowly grind its way higher.
This move is accompanied by a net increase in Open Interest, suggesting that new positioning is entering the market.
When combined with Delta, we can see that positioning is relatively evenly split, meaning both longs and shorts are entering.
Historically, these small weekend grinds tend to be retraced relatively easily.
For Evaluation, the only positive sign here is that the SpotCVD is showing active local participation.
📊 Positioning & Plan
I remain positioned swing long from 77k.
However, if we get the right structural and order-flow confluence, I may consider a small intraday short on Sunday given this weak construct.
I'll be discussing any potential opportunities openly in the free Discord community. 🤝
$BTC: One of the most important tests for the current market is approaching ⚠️
For the first time since breaking above it, BTC is approaching its Short-Term Holder Cost Basis.
But why does this level matter?
The STH Cost Basis represents the average acquisition price of Bitcoin held by investors who acquired their coins within the last 155 days.
Historically, this metric has played a particularly interesting role:
📈 Bull Markets: It has frequently acted as a dynamic support level, with successful retests signalling continued market strength.
📉 Bear Markets: It has flipped into strong resistance, as recent market participants find themselves underwater and sell into recoveries.
This makes the upcoming retest particularly interesting. It could tell us a lot about the underlying strength of the current recovery.
Personally, I will be looking to accumulate further Spot around this retest.
Of course, nothing is guaranteed here. But from a historical and statistical perspective, I find this an attractive area to increase my personal exposure.
$BTC Weekend Plan ☕️
BTC continues to trade around the 77.2k nPOC, as expected.
Following the recent downside expansion, it is perfectly normal for the market to start establishing value around this region.
Expansion is followed by compression.
📊 Structure & Plan
My swing positioning will therefore remain unchanged.
Given that I'm expecting relatively lower volatility over the weekend, I may look to execute some mean-reversion setupsbased on:
- Formation of lower-timeframe ranges.
- VWAP standard deviation levels.
- Confirmed deviations and reclaims.
If anything changes in the current market regime, I'll keep you updated here.
Have a great weekend! 🤝
Study the Effects of Options and how they fundamentally work in financial markets.
With the Crypto Industry growing larger and institutionell adoption rising, it will become unavoidable that Options Volume will eventually dominate this market.
This is something you can actually be "early" on. It takes work and its highly complex, but I truly believe that learning the mechanics behind this will be highly beneficial in the future to those who put the work in to understand them.
GM ☕️
There was one level you've heard me talk about arguably more than any other over the past weeks, and it just got hit: 77k.
Overnight, BTC continued its sell-off and finally left the local range behind.
📊 Order Flow & Structure
The sell-off was driven by a combination of longs closing out and aggressive shorts entering the market, pushing price lower.
We eventually reached 77.2k, the nPOC of the previous range, which is currently providing some local support.
This is a particularly important region within my broader trading plan.
💼 Positioning
Three things have changed in my positioning:
1. Swing Short
I've now closed approximately 70% of my original swing short in total, securing the majority of the profits from this move.
2. Delta-Neutral Long Hedge
I've opened an automatic long swing position, sized to be delta-neutral against my remaining swing short exposure.
The reasoning is straightforward: 77k is the first region within my plan where I'm becoming interested in swing positioning to the long side again.
3. Spot Accumulation
I've also allocated further capital towards my spot portfolio, continuing my investment DCA approach.
🎯 Plan
The task from here is relatively straightforward:
We need to identify whether 77k can establish itself as a pivot point for another move higher, or whether my extended bearish scenario comes into play.
Until then, my intraweekly base case remains a period of compression following the recent downside expansion.
In other words, I expect a potential consolidation and range formation around 77k before the next meaningful directional move.
For now, I'll let the market establish its next structure rather than anticipate it.
🚨 $BTC Is Going Crazy | What Is Happening Beneath the Headlines?
Today has been a heavily news-driven session for crypto, and the order flow behind the moves is particularly interesting.
Initially, we received very bullish news surrounding Hyperliquid, which also had a positive impact on BTC.
However, price then reached its third retest of the local range POC. Once again, we saw a sweep of the highs without any meaningful acceptance above the level. What followed was a sharp sell-off.
As of now, further uncertainty has entered the market following rumours of a potential Binance hack. Nothing has been officially confirmed so far, leaving the market in a state of heightened uncertainty.
📍 My Plan
For me, this means one crucial thing: No new trades until the news-driven volatility has settled.
It will be important to monitor the boundaries of the current mini range to assess whether we are preparing for further downside or potentially resolving back into the previous range.
One thing is certain: Moves like today's are bringing us increasingly closer to the higher-timeframe target levels I outlined in my HTF analysis.
For now, patience is the priority. There is no need to force trades in an environment where headlines are driving price discovery.
Let the volatility settle. Then reassess the structure.
The type of Sh*t that happens when your $HYPE Long gets front-run by $0.30 💀
