רייצ'ל

A few notes on the Israeli elections: - Ignore the early partial counts: Voting tally speed varies significantly across the country, for instance, results from many Arab towns are still pending. In the latest update of tallies Raam gained 2 more seats. The final votes to be counted are the "double envelopes" (primarily around 150,000 soldiers and active-duty reservists). Because this group is demographically distinct from the general population, with negligible Haredi and Arab representation, their votes typically cause late shifts in seat distribution. - Exit poll adjustments: Overnight, TV networks updated their exit polls using real results from sample polling stations to adjust for late voters and those who misled pollsters. This shifted roughly three seats in favor of the Netanyahu bloc. Still, he remains short of the 61-seat majority needed to form a government. - The leaders of the 3 of the opposition parties, Eisenkott, Bennet and Lieberman, have to break one of their core campaign promises, or Israel will head to another election in six months. In the interim, Netanyahu would remain caretaker PM leading a minority in the Knesset, which could allow the opposition majority to pass key legislation, including establishing a State Commission of Inquiry into the failures that led to the October 7th massacre. - Netanyahu's strategy: The core promises from these three leaders were to exclude Netanyahu, exclude Arab parties, and exclude Haredi parties from a coalition. Netanyahu’s "victory" speech and political track record indicate he will not abandon his ultra-Orthodox alliance. Instead, he aims to pressure right-leaning opposition leaders to abandon their principles and join his government on his terms (much as Benny Gantz did previously, destroying his own political credibility). - The consequences of racism: Netanyahu, the Right, and their media ecosystem have systematically delegitimized Arab political participation or reliance on Arab party votes. Currently, "The Democrats" is the only opposition party advocating for a joint Jewish-Arab coalition. The three right/centrist opposition leaders who reject Arab inclusion must now decide: bow to Netanyahu's narrative, thereby depriving themselves of power and giving Bibi another shot to win the elections in 6 months, or cooperate with Arab parties to have them support the government from the opposition. Such a government won't be stable, but it could get important things done for all of Israel's citizens.

Netanyahu's bloc will likely settle around 54 seats. This is his lowest number since 1996, and identical to the bloc he had in the 1999 elections, which he lost. Yet Netanyahu & the Right have been successful in delegitimizing participation of Arab parties in gov't, getting the Israeli center to play by their racist rules. Graph by the genius @LittleMoiz