@rickjeff78i
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Trading Bum. Bond and Volatility Guesser. Don't fight flows. Autistic level sports commentary. Politically moderate. Stoicism is freedom.
Joined January 2008
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Layman's guide (no greeks) to understand why the stock market does what it does and seemingly doesn't make sense.
1. When you buy puts, the dealer that sold you those puts also just shorted actual shares to stay neutral, so they don't take a loss if the market tanks.
2. Those shorted shares need to be purchased back by that dealer prior to your option expiration date.
3. When skew gets lopsided to one side, you will see big moves going the other way.
4. When fear goes up, positions skew heavily to puts. This includes retail betting one-way for a market crash and large institutions who hedge their portfolios.
5. If 3-5 weeks ago, a lot of people bought April puts, A LOT of shares need bought back by April OPEX. We are here now.
6. The only way to keep going down at this stage is: A) for a fear event bigger than the previous one to cause new aggressive put buying or B) April OPEX dealer buybacks complete to level their books.
Classic James Franklin masterclass time management to end the half.
Hokies TD to take 27-14 lead into the half. Maryland are left holding their dicks.
No one does it better.
Exactly one entertaining game in the early slate of CFB games and we get a lightning delay with 8 minutes left.
The AI trade unraveling will crash the stock market 25%+ after the election.
You will then see the government taking large stakes in a wide range of corporations deemed critical and too big to fail.
Two guys match with the same girl on a dating site.
Guy A: Texting a lot, sharing lots of information, asking tons of questions, being pleasant, giving instant responses, good morning/night texts.
Guy B: Goes hours without responding to questions, give bare minimum information about himself, takes jabs at her about something in her profile, doesn't initiate the conversations.
The woman will choose to persue Guy B 99% of the time, even if he is not as good looking as Guy A.
A comes off easy, low value, and beneath her.
B comes off hard to get, high value, and above her.
These are basic elements of attraction.
Rates don't matter. There is always another way to inject liquidity to prop up markets.
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Fed will inject $16.5 billion into the economy starting today.
Sydney Sweeney exudes stoicism.
Both men and women who do not get emotionally flustered are the most attractive people on earth.
She has world class cans, don't get me wrong, but if she is publicly losing her shit, men are turned off by that lack of self control.
Honest question for the Sydney Sweeney enthusiasts:
Besides the two enormous elephants in the room… what exactly is the attraction? 😂
Her face? Her charm? Her personality? Help me understand the phenomenon.
And before somebody types “intelligence”—please respect the seriousness of this scientific investigation. 😭🔬
Trump loves nothing more than headlines.
Bet against new ATHs before the election at your own peril.
Long precious metals everytime there are talks of rate hikes and pulling back liquidity.
Silver will be back in the 70s shortly.
Trump thought the Iran war would last 2 weeks.
It is probably the biggest miss by any President in US history.
Lots of GOPers out there are oblivious to what is going to happen in 7 weeks.
New - Generic Ballot poll
🔵 Democrats 54% (New High)
🔴 Republicans 41% (New low)
July poll - Democrats +6
Marquette #B - LV - 9/9