since @AIImpacts doesn't know how to (or doesn't care to) make an honest chart, the attached rendering of their data is provided pro bono
Image from Renaldo Moon Glampers (@risruc_habteb)
AI Impacts (@AIImpacts) profile pictureAI Impacts
@AIImpactsSep 14
Replying to @AIImpacts
This is the curve of catastrophe. If all 1,580 researchers were lined up in order of answers, this is what it would look like. A lot of researchers were WAY above 10%.
Image from AI Impacts (@AIImpacts)

Sep 15, 2026 · 5:41 PM UTC

2
2
1
7
693
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Or simplified: 50% think its above 10% and 50% think its below 10%. Spread from 0.001% to 99.9%
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