@robertqking

Investor | Avid reader | DFW Hoyas Board Member | ex-@Kirkland_Ellis | @YaleSOM @GeorgetownLaw @UTAustin

Dallas, TX
Joined April 2008
Generally agree with this except for the part about how they could have released an app like @Muse a few months ago -- technical capability, yes -- but did they have the compute capacity for this or was it all tied up in serving their massive consumer & enterprise base?
One thing that @Muse has completely disrupted for all consumer products going forward is the manual toil of having to click through buttons in apps and managing the outcomes. They raised the bar for everybody in the game. Will be an upfront cost for companies to add agentic capabilities to their apps so they avoid attrition to apps that either open up a @Muse connector or provide the agentic workflows for consumers themselves. Every multi-step task on an app over the next few years will be able to be llm prompted. This is Meta making the market catch up. Previously agentic workflow was only a luxury to tech bros that set it up on a dedicated server. Welcome to the Muse era folks. Frontier labs could have released a consumer like app just like Muse months ago if they had the proper product alignment, distribution and data. They didn’t instead and they realized they fucked up. Now they are trying to make publicity stunts that their AI is so good it’s a threat to humanity. You always gotta to watch out for the low-end. Enterprise may be where the money has been but that is because it was the lowest hanging fruit. Suddenly the tables have turned and Open AI and Claude’s product roadmap is subject to innovator’s dilemma $META
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@Muse had the benefit of being a fast follower, which means they could take a slightly orthogonal strategy to the frontier labs without much of their existing baggage of existing customers. Really a fantastic strategy from @alexandr_wang & @finkd + $META.
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Robert King retweeted
cool @muse story last week, muse help me plan and book an anniversary trip for my wife and i at a hotel in up state ny. this morning on my feed tab a post told me that the days we had booked would have heavy rain - but the following days had better weather. i tapped discuss and asked muse to email the hotel to push our dates back and it worked. magic - true intelligence is proactive. it should be two steps ahead of me, not micro-managed through prompting.
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This pic isn't a warning to us. It's a warning to other countries. We will take your smartest, hardest-working citizens and turn them into Americans. We're a machine and you can't stop us. Look upon our soft power and despair.
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Robert King retweeted
The Manning gene finally activating in Arch during the 4th quarter vs Ohio State
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Robert King retweeted
Two years at DoorDash. I do not say this lightly. We are extremely close to the burrito arriving before you decide you want it. We are not asking for a ban. We are asking for a pause.
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It’s not great for @Apple that @Muse is better at using some of the native Apple apps than Siri AI.
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Robert King retweeted
This was meant to be a joke. I'm so sorry.
Bessent to upgrade his 3-3-3 to 6-6-6: 6% 10 year 6% PCE 6% deficit to GDP
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Almost twenty years ago, I programmatically nabbed a reservation for momofuku ko back when it was the hottest restaurant in town… except I accidentally nabbed four. They called, and I had to tell them I thought it was weird too and their system must have been buggy. 😂
Totally fair action from Resy tbh just asked Instinct for its activity log and holy hell lol "Total: roughly 200 API requests per hour, around the clock 1. 4 Charles availability sweep every 10 minutes, 24/7 since Friday morning - each run hit their API ~17-19 times (one per date in a 21-day window). ~100-115 calls/hour 2. Every morning at 9am drop time, a 2.5-minute burst polling every 0.4 seconds - 200-375 requests per drop 3. Occasional session-token refreshes"
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Crazy that I remember that lull like it was yesterday, but it feels like a lifetime ago.
AI was seasonal in 2024-2025. Growth decelerated during the summer (students/people work less is the theory) and reaccelerated after Labor Day. This year, AI accelerated in July/August led by OpenAI, Grok and open-source. And today is the first time I’ve ever seen this:
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Robert King retweeted
I have yet to see Lebron do this
BREAKING: Jordan says it has intercepted eight missiles fired by Iran
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Buy right and hold tight $NVDA edition
Replying to @ericbahn
In those 24 years (18 as a public co) they had 5 draw downs of more than 50%. Two of those were more than 85% from peak to trough. When such a thing happens it feels like it went to zero. Even after 2017, they’ve had two draw downs of more than 50% including 2021-22 which was over 66% so that would be a 3x just to get back to break even. From 85% drawdown you need 6.7x return to get back to 1x.
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Growing up, this was a huge fear of mine when I was out in public with my parents. "ney-guh" means "that" in Chinese, and sometimes it is repeated as filler and is usually accompanied by pointing that "that" whatever "that " may be. cc @Mr_Neutral_Man
A professor was removed from a class because he was teaching Mandarin and the word for “ummmm” sounds vaguely like a slur. LOL SO WACKY
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Robert King retweeted
With Gemini's prospects of keeping up with Anthropic and OpenAI on future frontier AI models fading fast, it's kind of funny that Apple went all in on Gemini.
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I’m finding myself using the browser via @ChatGPT these days because it’s a lot easier to offload various things to codex that way.
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The guy who invented dial telephones put 250,000 phone switchboard operators out of work. This was the highest paying position for women in the US. The guy who invented it was NOT an engineer or electrician, but rather, a mortician. There were two funeral homes in the town he served… his and a rival. The owner of the rival had a wife who worked as a switchboard operator. Anytime anyone called for A funeral home or HIS funeral home, she would route the call to her husband. He invented the dial phone so customers could explicitly end around switchboard operators and call someone directly. I just love this story.
Replying to @allengilmer
Wouldn’t this just lead to less cashier jobs? What’s more important, jobs or affordability. Seems you can’t have both
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Robert King retweeted
No mammal has ever evolved green fur. Not one of roughly 6,400 species. Mammals make exactly two pigments, eumelanin for black and brown, pheomelanin for red and orange, and no combination of those gets you to green. The only mammal that looks green is a sloth, and that's algae growing on it. So evolution solved the camouflage problem from the opposite end. Deer and boar are dichromats. They lack the long-wavelength cone, so orange and green land on the same channel. A tiger never needed green fur, because the animals it hunts cannot tell the two apart. John Fennell's team at Bristol ran this in simulation, and the tiger goes from garish to invisible the moment you remove one cone. Which leaves the question Fennell flagged as still open. Why didn't deer evolve trichromatic vision? Spotting an ambush predator is the whole ballgame, and primates pulled off that upgrade tens of millions of years ago. The answer is stranger than growing better eyes. In Kanha and Mudumalai, chital deer spend their days directly underneath langur troops. Langurs are Old World monkeys, which means full trichromatic vision, sitting in the canopy, looking down at the forest floor. A 1989 study at Kanha found that of deer herds within 200 meters of a langur troop, 70% closed to within 25 meters. Chital reacted to langur alarm calls more often than langurs reacted to theirs. The deer could not build the eyes. So they parked themselves under something that already had them. The tiger's coat is tuned against the visual system of nearly every mammal in that forest. It fails against exactly one, and the deer worked out how to borrow it. The borrowing works well enough that people run the same play. When a burst of chital alarm calls goes up in an Indian reserve, every guide within earshot stops the jeep and starts looking for stripes.
Tigers look orange to humans because we are trichromats, but they appear green to deer and wild boars because they are dichromats.
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Me reading this:
Many are fixed on why $NVDA is trading at a seemingly low multiple; there are a few reasons for this. I am not arguing here whether these are right or wrong, but these are real reasons: 1. There is a big question of what would happen with orders if $TSM 's allocation were reset today and $GOOGL, $AMZN, and $AMD would be able to order as much capacity of TPUs, Trainium, MI400 as they would want. That question then becomes a wider issue of what happens in a few years when $AMZN and $GOOGL have enough $TSM allocation to do so. Do they switch most of it to their local ASIC (like $AMZN did with CPUs and their Graviton CPU)? 2. It seems increasingly like $NVDA, with the backstops and investments in neoclouds, is trying to "buy its way" into more and bigger orders in a faster timeline, which is normally not a healthy sign. 3. If you truly believe that the compute shortage and high demand will continue to last for years, arguably a better way to "play" the AI frenzy is via memory makers or other parts of the semi stack that are more elastic in price and, at the same time, can't be skipped, as they represent a critical, monopolistic supply chain. 4. There is no doubt that more competition on the chip design layer has emerged in the last year than in previous years, with Tranium, TPU, $AMD, Cerebras and many others, so projecting the 75% $NVDA gross margin in the long-term future seems an outcome that is less likely than it was a year ago. Again, I am not making the case for any of these; I am just laying out some real cases here, because the narrative that the market is 100% wrong and that looking at forward P/Es and thinking the investment case is great for a company just because it seems cheap in terms of forward valuation is not the correct way to invest.
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Just watched The Odyssey. I’ve been an avid Nolan fan and have seen every one of his movies except the very first one (pre-Memento), Tenet, and, oddly enough, Oppenheimer. The Odyssey is his best film (pending a viewing of Oppenheimer) by a fucking country mile.
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Robert King retweeted
Gotta love the LLMs' standard response - because it's exactly what any mathematician would say if you showed up with this out of the blue.
hello there the jacobian conjecture is false thanx to my close friend akhil for asking about it and my other close friend fable for working during the world cup final ((1+xy)^3 z + y^2 (1+xy) (4+3xy), y + 3 x (1+xy)^2 z + 3 x y^2 (4+3xy), 2 x - 3 x^2 y - x^3 z): \C^3\to \C^3, has jacobian determinant -2, and sends (0, 0, -1/4), (1, -3/2, 13/2), and (-1, 3/2, 13/2) to (-1/4, 0, 0)
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