Reinis Jansons 🇺🇦

Why do so many people think that if the Russians attack NATO, they will necessarily roll into Europe in gigantic armored columns like they did toward Kyiv in 2022 (and that this is therefore extremely unlikely now)? They won’t fight a full-scale frontal war the way they have been fighting Ukraine for years. They’ll do what they did in 2014: send another Igor Girkin from the FSB across the border with a detachment of armed saboteurs (a.k.a "the people’s militia," "rebels," or "separatists"), seize some town near the Russian border, activate pre-positioned local collaborators and former pyramid-scheme scammers (a.k.a. "people’s governors"). Some hypothetical “Rubicon,” operating without insignia, will provide them with drone support in armed clashes with the local police, National Guard, or counterterrorism forces, and they’ll start torturing and killing people undesirable in the territories they’ve seized (a.k.a. "the people's republic"). It goes without saying that the Russian propaganda machine will have no trouble finding a sensational TV story about yet another "crucified boy" at the hands of yet another "fascist punishers," vividly and convincingly demonstrating to Russian society and the international community that Russia has no choice but to intervene and protect its "compatriots." And basically, that’s it -- just keep listening to Robert Fico’s screams about "some article 5," watch Western officials speak about the "unacceptability of escalation," call for "restraint," express concerns, and say that their capitals are "not prepared to unleash World War III for that." Meanwhile, the tankies, of course, will be yelling about how the hypothetical "Tallinn junta" had been "bombing Narva for eight years." And that could be it -- the effective end of NATO, and Europe being forcibly compelled into a suicidal betrayal of Ukraine and an end to aid.