President of @coefficientpoll. Pollster, debater, data geek and strategist. I live in the city, but I identify as rural.

Kansas City, MO
Joined February 2009
This is question of the year.
Harder to reach or not interested in voting? Much of this cycle will come down to which one is the cause.
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This is demonstrably, and obviously true. But, the gap has increased this year exposing a deeper bias problem. Simply weighting by party doesn't fix the response bias problem. The bias is not created by the volume of Republicans that are willing to respond, but which type of Republicans are choosing not to respond.
There is growing evidence that Republicans have become somewhat less likely than Democrats to participate in polls, particularly in the past three presidential elections. In 2020 and 2024, weighting our post election polls by party improved accuracy by about 1-2 percentage points per candidate.
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There is growing evidence that Republicans have become somewhat less likely than Democrats to participate in polls, particularly in the past three presidential elections. In 2020 and 2024, weighting our post election polls by party improved accuracy by about 1-2 percentage points per candidate.
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In our latest independent poll, Republican Ashley Hinson leads Democrat Josh Turek: 🔴 Ashley Hinson, Republican - 46% 🔵 Josh Turek, Democrat - 42% 🟡 Thomas Laehn, Libertarian - 2% ⚪ Undecided - 9% See the Iowa results and follow the full Senate Battlegrounds 2026 series here: battlegrounds.coefficient.or… Follow along as we continue releasing independent polling from 2026’s most contested Senate races. #2026Election #USSenate #IASenate Independent public polling. Not sponsored by any candidate committee, party committee, or other independent expenditure.
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What impact would this have on grocery prices???
The number of people on SNAP has decreased by 5.3 million after new work requirements were implemented.
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This might be the most important chart of the year.
Americans now pay more in taxes than they spend on food, clothing, and shelter combined. Think about that. Government has become so big and bloated that taxes cost more than life's basic necessities. Every American taxpayer should be outraged.
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So proud of our supply lines.
USA. A Mexican restaurant. We had not yet ordered anything, and the food was already arriving. Chips. Salsa. Unrequested. Free. I stopped the waiter. "We have not earned these." "They just come with the table, man." They come with the TABLE. In my land, hospitality is a debt. Every gift creates an obligation, weighed carefully, returned in the proper season with interest of feeling. Here, the gift arrives before you have even proven you can pay for dinner. This is not an appetizer. This is a declaration: we trust you. Eat. I ate with the gravity the moment deserved. And then — I must report this calmly — the basket emptied, and a new one appeared. "Did we…?" "Refill," the waiter said. "It's bottomless." Bottomless. They have wells of salsa. The supply lines of this nation are beyond anything my ancestors imagined. My friend warned me. "Don't fill up on chips, dude." Too late. I had accepted three baskets. Honor demanded each one be finished — an unfinished gift is an insult. By the time my actual food arrived, I was a ruined man. I was not hungry. I was not comfortable. I had been defeated by a courtesy. Generosity that arrives before the request cannot be repaid. It can only be survived. I know the rule now. I have made my peace with the basket. One basket. Two at the most. Who am I deceiving. There is no number of baskets I would refuse. The trust of a nation is in that salsa, and I intend to honor all of it.
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SOOO much of this going on these days.
Turns out you can make anyone seem innocent if you leave out the middle part of the story where they committed the crime. “A math professor moved to a cabin in Montana. Now he’s serving life in prison.”
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New Poll: Indiana Republicans' Support For Redistricting • 78% say it is very important that elected representatives support President Trump’s agenda • 72% support redrawing congressional districts in Indiana • 67% say they would be less likely to re-elect their State Senator if they sided with Democrats Dec 11–12, 2025 | 1,010 GOP Primary Voters | MoE ±3.11% | Mobile Text + Live Interviews | for Fair Maps Indiana View full memo: coefficient.org/wp-content/u…
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NEW: 2026 Texas GOP Senate Primary Poll Ken Paxton and John Cornyn remain locked in a close battle, each enjoying slight leads in various media markets, while Wesley Hunt trails in third in all markets across the state. Ballot: Cornyn: 28% Paxton: 27% Hunt: 19% Undecided: 26% Fielded Dec 1–3, 2025 | n=1,022 Likely Republican Primary Voters | MoE ±3.07% | Not sponsored by any candidate or committee. Full results: coefficient.org/texas-statew…
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New Statewide NJ Poll: Governor: Sherrill (D): 48% Ciattarelli (R): 47% Kaplan (L): 1% Kuniansky (SWP): 0% Undecided: 5% Generic Assembly: Democrat: 49% Republican: 45% Undecided: 6% Oct 23–27, 2025 | 995 LVs | MoE ±3.27% | Not sponsored by any candidate or candidate’s committee. View full results: coefficient.org/new-jersey-s…
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New Statewide VA Poll: While the Governor's race is still competitive with Spanberger out in front, Jay Jones' texting scandal has defined the race for Attorney General with Miyares leading by 4 (46%-42%) headed into the final weeks of the campaign. Governor: Spanberger (D): 49% Earle-Sears (R): 44% Charles (I): 1% Undecided: 6% Lieutenant Governor Hashmi (D): 47% Reid (R): 42% Undecided: 11% Attorney General: Miyares (R): 46% Jones (D): 42% Undecided: 11% Oct 15–17, 2025 | 937 LVs | MoE ±3.19% | Not sponsored by any candidate or candidate’s committee. View full results: coefficient.org/virginia-sta…
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NEW POLL: Our latest Virginia statewide survey finds voters sharply divided on political violence, who's to blame, and the use of the National Guard. ✔️ 1 in 3 Republicans say recent events increased motivation to vote ✔️ Voters who typically skip off-year elections are reporting an increased motivation to vote. Learn how this could impact November in our full memo: coefficient.org/va-statewide… #VAgov #VAleg #VAelection Not paid for by any candidate or candidate’s committee.
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How can anyone hear this and not consider it an explicit call for political violence? This = shouting fire in a crowded theater.
I fear that we will not have an election in 2028 -- I really mean that in the core of my soul -- unless we wake up to what's happening in this country.
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It looks like we finally discovered how Nancy Pelosi was sending out all of her fundraising text messages for the last 20 years. Glad that is coming to an end.
The Secret Service dismantled a network of more than 300 SIM servers and 100,000 SIM cards in the New York-area that were capable of crippling telecom systems and carrying out anonymous telephonic attacks, disrupting the threat before world leaders arrived for the UN General Assembly. 📰 Read more about this at secretservice.gov/newsroom/r…
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New 2026 South Carolina Governor GOP Primary Poll: Nancy Mace: 19% Pamela Evette: 18% Alan Wilson: 16% Ralph Norman: 10% Josh Kimbrell: 2% Undecided: 35% Sept 18–19, 2025 | 1,094 Likely Republican Primary Voters | MoE ±3.17% | Not sponsored by any candidate or candidate’s committee. Full results: coefficient.org/sc-governor-…
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St. Michael the Archangel, defend us in battle. Be our protection against the wickedness & snares of the Devil. May God rebuke him, we humbly pray, & do thou, O Prince of the heavenly hosts, by the power of God, thrust into hell Satan, & all the evil spirits, who prowl about the world seeking the ruin of souls. Amen
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New co/efficient Statewide VA Poll: Governor: Spanberger (D): 48% Earle-Sears (R): 43% Lt. Governor: Reid (R): 43% Hashmi (D): 43% Attorney General: Jones (D): 45% Miyares (R): 44% Aug 23-26, 2025 | 1,025 LVs | MoE ±3.1% | Not sponsored by any candidate or candidates committee. Full results: coefficient.org/va-statewide…
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The media says Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” adds $3T to the deficit. That’s a lie based on a fake baseline. Here’s the truth: 🧵
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