Reading crypto casino terms so you don’t have to. Edge comes from data. Data over narratives.
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today binance hot wallets started moving large amounts of eth, usdt and other tokens to a brand new address. one transaction alone took roughly 167k eth (approx 400m usd) + about 1.6 billion usdt and dozens of other tokens. reports put the total movement in the multi-billion range about $2.4b
cz confirmed that user funds are safe and that it looks like a hack on binance and mentioned nearly 2b already freezed thanks to tether and circle while binance current update is a potential security issue. researchers on x described an eip-7702 delegation on a hot wallet combined with what looks like a signing or private-key compromise that allowed a sweep function to drain the tokens
pretty interesting how quickly tether and other issuers can apparently freeze funds when something like this happens. tether and circle locked roughly $1.5b+ in usdt and ~$800m in usdc within a short time. obviously a good thing in cases like this, but also a reminder that stablecoins still have centralized controls even though they’re moving on decentralized networks. freezing tokens at the smart-contract level is different from freezing native btc or eth.
this sits next to other large incidents. in september bitget lost around $387.5 million from hot wallets after attackers exploited a zero-day in third-party security products and inserted forged withdrawal commands. private keys of the cold wallets were not compromised. only a tiny fraction was frozen (a few hundred thousand dollars, well under 0.5%). last year bybit lost roughly $1.5 billion when a supply-chain attack on the safe wallet frontend let attackers show signers one thing while the underlying logic did something else. the bulk was eth and liquid staking tokens, so almost nothing could be frozen the same way
about 10 days ago railway had an incident where an attacker reached systems holding environment variables. they said at most about 1.85 percent of workspaces, roughly 100,000, had some variables potentially compromised, and early evidence pointed at someone looking for ai provider keys. around the same time php shipped emergency fixes for two critical unauthenticated remote-code-execution bugs (cve-2026-109618 and cve-2026-109619, called php2shell). they were added to cisa’s known-exploited list days later.
on the xrp ledger an ai agent from veria labs found two weaknesses that had to be chained together: an integer overflow in the payment engine and a supply-safeguard that used the same flawed arithmetic. the combination could theoretically have minted trillions of xrp in one carefully prepared payment. the code was years old. it was fixed quickly and never exploited on mainnet. no human found it because no one was combining two things together, in the age of ai this is not a brainpower problem anymore
we are entering a phase of exponential growth in ai, tech and hacks at the same time. it feels like we’re reaching a point where ais are fighting other ais, one defending systems while the other is trying to find ways in. humans are looking at individual bugs while ai can potentially find ways to combine multiple vulnerabilities. anthropic has reported thousands of findings from their models across open-source projects, with hundreds already patched. openai has talked about unreleased models finding hundreds of vulnerabilities, including in browsers and kernels. the xrp case is a concrete example of an ai system chaining two separate issues that humans had missed for years
a huge amount of the internet still runs on software, servers and dependencies written years or decades ago. those systems were not built for a world where automated tools can inspect massive codebases and test combinations at scale. an old bug that sat unnoticed can become easier to find. even if a company keeps its own application clean, it still depends on external libraries, cloud platforms, authentication providers and dozens of other pieces. updating packages fixes issues, but new packages and updates also introduce supply-chain risk. we have seen compromised npm packages, maintainer account takeovers and third-party product compromises (bitget’s case being one)
everyone is vibe coding their own websites, apps and dashboards now. that lowers the barrier to building software a lot but many people deploying these things have limited knowledge of security. secrets end up in repos, api keys get exposed, database credentials sit in environment variables that someone else can reach by just opening the network logs (most common example). ai makes it easier to create software and simultaneously easier to attack poorly secured software
even if you are safe and protect everything of your own, your credentials, address and data are still sitting on some government server or the neobank you use every day. your information exists in banks, payment processors, telecoms, hotels, healthcare systems and countless other places. you can lock down your own devices, but you cannot personally audit every organization holding your data. one compromised third party can expose things you never intended to make public
crypto casinos sit in the same environment. duelbits confirmed roughly $7 million left their hot wallets in september, suspected private-key issue, site taken offline while they investigated. gamdom lost just over $3 million from hot wallets a few days ago; later an extortion group claimed a large user database and demanded a ransom. felix' (founder of gamdom) statements and on-chain tracking confirm the wallet losses, the full data claims are still disputed in scale. these platforms handle balances, withdrawals, dashboards and third-party integrations. even strong internal practices do not eliminate exposure through external services and dependencies
the world has pretty much become a cyber war and every single digital system is at risk. defensive ai is getting better at finding and patching issues. offensive use of the same tools is improving too. automated systems can run continuously, test huge numbers of combinations and scale across targets in ways human teams cannot. the internet may stay more exposed during this transition even as the defensive tools improve
longterm people running their own powerful ai models without third-party restrictions might have a massive advantage over those depending entirely on someone else’s ai
we’re entering a period where ai, technology and cyberattacks are all accelerating at the same time. the internet is becoming a battlefield between increasingly capable automated systems and the uncomfortable part is that even if you secure everything you personally control, you’re still trusting hundreds of systems you have absolutely no control over. the best solution is to not be a target and who to give access to your data & money
We’re hiring a Writer / Journalist at FairGambling - (+ referral bonus)
At FairGambling we’d rather hire from the community than post on job boards.
This time, we’re looking for someone to help build the news side of FairGambling.
You’ll cover daily news across crypto gambling & iGaming, but also work on deeper stories and investigations.
Sometimes that starts with a tip, a screenshot, a transaction, a piece of data or something in the industry that just looks interesting.
Some stories take a few hours. Others might take days or even weeks to properly research.
You might be a great fit if:
- You’re a strong writer
- You’re curious and like digging into things
- You’re comfortable reaching out to operators, streamers, players and other sources
- You know the iGaming space or follow it closely
- You can work independently and take ownership of a story
- You enjoy both fast daily news and longer investigations
You get:
- Fully remote
- Flexible working hours
- Competitive salary + performance bonus
- A lot of ownership over what we cover
- Time to work on proper investigations, not just article volume
Apply here:
docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F…
Or know someone who fits? We’re paying a $1,000 referral bonus.
We're hiring a Community & Operations Lead - (+ referral bonus)
At FairGambling we'd rather hire from the community than post on job boards.
Last time we posted a role here on X, we found our Streamer Manager - who’s now successfully running our streamer product and the @DegenHighs page.
This time, we’re looking for a VIP Host.
You might be a great fit if:
- You’re not boring and are genuinely fun to talk to
- You’re structured and process-oriented
- You have experience or a strong interest in iGaming
- You enjoy interacting with users and being part of the community
You get:
- Fully remote
- Flexible working hours
- Highly competitive salary + performance bonus
Apply here: forms.gle/gzoJSEWafspYBLDW8
Or know someone that fits? We are paying a $1,000 referral bonus!
think all of us have seen those videos of someone casually running $200 into $20k in bed in the morning, turns out a lot of it isn't real
but it doesn't really matter for the engagement. crazy wins get views, views make accounts look bigger and the bigger the account gets, the more opportunities come with it
everything online is attention based at this point, so probably worth questioning what you're actually looking at before believing the numbers on screen
I just made $100K in 1 minute…
I deposited $20k to try this Limbo strategy I’ve been seeing everywhere and somehow it went insane
the strategy is pretty simple
you chase 9x with big bets and every time you win you double the bet amount twice before going back to the original amount
unless you hit again…
then you double it again
I was down to my last $1K bet and somehow ran it all the way up to $100K right after
I even withdrew the full amount in the video
now this would be great if any of it was real
the entire video was fake
I made it to show how easy it is for someone to larp as a high roller on gambling twitter and make huge bets, wins and even withdrawals look almost identical to the real thing
and there’s actually a reason people do this
these clips can go viral and farm millions of impressions which makes the person look like a real whale
from there they can use that image to get debt from people who think they’re genuinely betting these amounts or ask creators/casinos for money upfront to bring them under their code
so next time you see someone randomly doing insane bets don’t automatically assume they’re some massive high roller
the easiest thing to look for is whether they publicly share their casino username or actual bet slips that can be verified directly on the casino
a good example is @Jelitics who became known for these kinds of huge bets, especially on sports
the difference is he always shared his username and bet slips so it was pretty easy to verify that the bets were actually real
we also track high rollers ourselves on FairGambling where you can verify their casino usernames and activity
for example here’s one of Jelitics’ profile: fairgambling.com/players/gem…
if someone is constantly posting huge bets but never gives you anything that can actually be verified I would be very skeptical
and this isn’t limited to one game either
the same type of fakery can appear across originals, slots and other casino games
from the video alone it can look basically identical to a real session
so next time you see some random account casually doing $10k, $50k or $100k bets think twice before assuming the money on screen is actually real
seb retweeted
If you're interested in GambleFi, you should already know about ethereum:0x8881562783028f5c1bcb985d2283d5e170d88888
The price went from $0.39 to a peak of $0.72 in about 10 hours on Sep 27. On-chain, roughly ~$4.48M in buys vs ~$3.37M in sells since then, about $1.1M net in.
The biggest buyer withdrew $2.2M USDC from Binance and ran it through a Definitive TWAP vault. It bought ~$1.5k of SHFL every 24 seconds for 19 hours straight, ~$1.98M total, and consolidated 3.24M SHFL into one wallet.
Separately, well-known trader izebel.eth used two wallets to buy $438k and deposited all 1M SHFL straight into Shuffle.
Staked SHFL unlocks after Friday's lottery draw, and over the last 12 weeks about 69% of what gets withdrawn that weekend was sold on-chain within 72 hours. If I had to guess I'd say it will be a fist fight for sellers come Friday.
there has been a lot of noise around @enginedotio recently
big streamers are launching their own slot studios, stake engine rebranded to engine and is now expanding to other casinos, and since april stake streamers have only been allowed to play on these categories only: only on stake, new releases, stake originals and live games
engine itself is also a pretty interesting model which benefits easygo as a company but also every game studio and individual building on this ecosystem
studios can either take 7.5% of expected GGR or 10% of realized GGR, while engine provides most of the infrastructure and distribution
so let’s take a look at how big the engine has become inside stake and how much money is flowing through these games
here are the numbers:
over the last 28 days Stake reported $23.73B in casino wager across all games and $978M in sportsbook wager
$8.25B came from third party providers
$7.96B from Engine games
$7.51B from Stake Originals
$978M from their in-house Sportsbook
meaning engine alone now accounts for 32.2% of all casino wager on stake
so engine games are currently doing roughly 8x the wager of the entire Stake sportsbook, but one important disclaimer before looking deeper into those numbers:
Stake’s displayed wager includes streamer wager
@blackcoffeeslot confirmed: "this number displayed on stake includes affiliate wager, which doesn’t contribute towards what a provider gets paid, which will account for an enormous amount of this wager number"
so streams and gameplay of @Trainwreckstv or @BigFoltz is being reflected in the total amount of stake is reporting
meanwhile the official engine website doesn't count that streamer wager towards their stats so we can calculate the difference and we can pretty much see the impact right away when comparing the number reported on stake with the number of the same game on the engine website
@ValkyrieXStudio is probably the most extreme example because Train is always playing their games so heavily
engine reports $1.31B in Valkyrie turnover over the last 30 days, on stake itself the number is $4.08B wagered on Valkyrie games in only 28 days
Waylanders Forge clearly the most popular game in the engine having more wager than place #2 to #5 combined marks a difference of $705.9M on engine stats to $2.98B on stake
for most other engine studios the gap is much smaller, which makes sense considering just how much Valkyrie volume comes from train and other streamers playing their games
and this is also important for the Valkyrie numbers @erion0x posted yesterday
if you take the wager and actual RTP displayed on Stake and apply Engine’s 10% realized GGR model, Valkyrie’s games look insanely profitable
in our 28 day Stake data alone Valkyrie generated $4.08B in wager and around $109M in realized GGR
10% of that would theoretically be $10.9M for Valkyrie
but that’s not what they actually get paid
engine reports only $1.31b in eligible turnover because streamer wager is excluded, and engine doesn’t publish the actual rtp of that eligible volume
so we know the exact turnover they use for publisher payments, but not enough to calculate valkyrie’s exact payout
but we can get pretty close
the top 100 engine studios generated $3.19b in eligible turnover over the last 30 days
the top 100 games alone account for $2.63b of that
applying each game’s theoretical house edge to its engine turnover gives us roughly $82m in expected ggr across the games
under engine’s guaranteed model, 7.5% of that would mean roughly $6.1m paid to studios in a single month
if we instead apply the actual rtp we observed for those same games on stake, they would have generated roughly $117m in realized ggr
at engine’s 10% profit share that would translate to roughly $11.7m for the studios
obviously the second number is an estimate since we don’t know the actual rtp specifically for the non-streamer wagers engine counts, and different studios can choose different payment models
but it gives us a pretty good range for how much money is already flowing to engine studios every month
and there is another interesting part to the economics
once engine expands these games to outside operators, the split changes to 93% for the casino, 5% for the studio and 2% for engine
so on $100m in realized ggr distributed through engine, that would mean roughly $93m for the operator, $5m for the studio and $2m for engine
and when you remove the stake streamer wager, the size of engine inside stake also looks very different
using engine’s own publisher-eligible turnover instead:
$8.25b third party providers - 41.4%
$7.51b stake originals - 37.7%
$3.19b engine - 16.0%
$978m sportsbook - 4.9%
so while engine represents 32.2% of the total wager displayed across stake, the non-streamer turnover reported by engine itself brings that share down to roughly 16%
still a pretty crazy number considering engine is already doing more non-streamer wager than 3x stake’s entire sportsbook
and for some perspective, eddie recently confirmed the scale engine has already reached over the past year:
$24b+ in turnover
$90m+ paid out to publishers
4,000+ games built
1,000+ unique publishers
all while engine content was previously only available on stake
everyone suddenly wants their own slot studio
big creators are building Engine providers and other casinos are trying to replicate what Stake created
so I wanted to look at why this model has become so popular and most importantly how much money the top studios are actually making
Engine, previously known as Stake Engine, originally started as Stake's own remote gaming server where independent creators could build and publish casino games directly on Stake using its infrastructure
earlier this month Stake Engine officially rebranded to just Engine and is now expanding beyond Stake
Roobet is currently the first outside operator while other casinos can already apply, with broader integrations launching on December 11
Engine provides most of the infrastructure, hosting and documentation needed to get a game live
but making a game people actually want to keep playing and can generate hundreds of millions in wager is obviously a completely different story
and this is where the money gets interesting
Engine gives creators 2 ways to get paid
the first is the guaranteed model which gives studios more consistent income
you get 7.5% of the expected GGR based on your game's RTP
so a game with 98% RTP has a 2% expected house edge
on $1M wagered that's $20k in expected GGR and the studio would make $1.5k
the second option is profit share where you get 10% of the actual GGR
if players lose $100k on your games you make $10k
if they instead win $100k your profit share balance goes $10k negative and future GGR first has to clear that balance before you get paid again
you can switch between the 2 models monthly although any negative profit share balance still has to be cleared
and now with Engine expanding outside of Stake there’s another choice studios have to make
if they keep their games exclusive to Stake they can keep the full 10% GGR share
but if they want their games available to other casinos through Engine the split changes
93% goes to the casino, 2% goes to Engine and 5% goes to the creator
so the studio basically gives up half of its revenue share in exchange for distributing the same game across multiple casinos
if Engine gets adopted widely that could obviously end up being much more valuable
now let’s talk about Valkyrie Studio which is probably the biggest success story on Engine so far
the studio was founded by @ProdigyDDK with @Trainwreckstv and @Yassuo also involved from what we know
Prodigy has publicly shared on stream that Valkyrie uses the profit share model which makes this really interesting because Stake also shows exactly how much has been wagered and the actual RTP of each game
Valkyrie currently has only 19 games but has already done around $15B in wager and over 1.5B bets
just to put that into perspective let’s compare it to Nolimit City
Nolimit has been around for years and has 118 games on Stake with around $18B wagered and 3B+ bets
Valkyrie is already close to that wager with only 19 games
obviously they also have some huge advantages
Trainwrecks is the biggest gambling streamer in the world and heavily promotes their games, the games themselves are genuinely popular and Stake has thousands of sponsored streamers who are heavily pushed towards playing Engine only games on stream
that gives Engine studios a level of exposure most traditional providers would have to spend years building
now for the fun part, how much has Valkyrie actually made from Stake?
to calculate that we first need to check how much has been wagered on each slot and what the actual RTP is so far
their most popular game Waylander's Forge: $9.67B wagered at 97.06% RTP = ~$284.3M GGR
Red Strike: $1B wagered at 114.8% RTP = ~-$148M GGR (ouch, this one hurts their profit quite a bit)
Angel of Asgard: $710M wagered at 98.05% RTP = ~$13.8M GGR
Waylander's Cup: $698M wagered at 93.81% RTP = ~$43.2M GGR
Odin's Vault: $619M wagered at 97.35% RTP = ~$16.4M GGR
and the other 14 games combined come out to around another $120M in GGR
put everything together and Valkyrie's games have generated roughly $330M in GGR for Stake so far
since Valkyrie uses the 10% profit share model that would put their estimated earnings at around $33M
maybe @ValkyrieXStudio can confirm or deny that figure
of course this doesn't mean Valkyrie pocketed $33M
that's before salaries, development costs and everything else that goes into constantly releasing new games
we also know Train owns part of Valkyrie and Yassuo is involved, with potentially other investors or partners we don't know about
but even after all of that ~$33M in estimated studio revenue from only 19 games is pretty crazy
and I think Valkyrie is probably the best example so far of what Engine can become
now that Engine is expanding beyond Stake this gets even more interesting
if a studio can do numbers like this mostly from Stake alone, what happens when the same games are live across multiple major casinos?
either way you really can't do much other than give props to Valkyrie and their team for what they've managed to build
6qq6 deposited $7,905,540 into duel this morning and wagered $375,727,964 before lunch. withdrawals: $0
game breakdown:
blackjack: $317.8m wagered, -$7.1m
plinko: $49.6m wagered, +$591k
dice: $8.2m wagered, -$1.4m
no limbo, not a single sports bet and not even a pragmatic slot
his deposit wallet 0xba7725c89ce67e0993222253c14349a1fcf7832c was fully funded by bridge transfers, the money came in from another chain:
05:08 - $400,079
05:59 - $400,039
06:27 - $400,079
06:28 - $400,039
09:17 - $400,039
09:58 - $5,906,260
the wallet has no history before today and didnt deposit at any other casino we track, all funds were bridged straight into the deposit wallet so we dont have a direkt source of funds
the deposits match his public duel profile to within 0.013%, apparently he left with nothing.
we tracked $370m of his wager in our live bet feed, see the full breakdown for 6qq6 on fairgambling.com/players/6qq…
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I think this is a step towards making crypto gambling more fair and transparent for everyone.
My timeline has been filled with this for weeks: no provably fair system, withdrawals held, "bonus abuse", a random KYC level 3 pulled out at the last second, and "gameplay checks" that appear the moment someone wins.
Here's how it works. You file a case against a casino with your evidence.
1. A resolver reviews it and either approves it or tells you what's missing.
2. The casino gets a chance to respond in a shared thread with you. If they stay silent, the case closes as unresolved and will negatively impact their FairGambling rating.
3. Every case is public, forever. Resolved or unresolved, we publish it either way, including the ones that go against the player.
So we published a set of rules that we'll use to judge every case:
fairgambling.com/complaints/…
The core of it:
- Withdrawals should be processed without unnecessary delay
- If a casino closes an account, the player should be put into withdraw-only mode and allowed to take their remaining balance out
- If a game is advertised as provably fair, a real provably fair system has to exist. Otherwise we treat it as false advertisement
- If a casino requires KYC, it should be requested before the player deposits, not after they win
- If you take a sports bet, you take the action. Once a casino accepts a bet, it should honor it
If a casino has treated you unfairly, file it and we'll help you with your claim.
The online gambling industry is growing fast.
But it still has one major problem:
Unfair behavior from casinos often has very little consequence.
The old shady casino playbook is simple:
> Get negative PR, a negative thread, or a bad review
> Say nothing for a week
> It dies on its own
> Regulators in Anjouan, Curaçao or wherever won't help anyway
> Repeat
And it works every time.
So we built something that outlasts a week.
FairGambling ADR, a free, public Alternative Dispute Resolution platform built for crypto gambling.
fairgambling.com/complaints
You file a complaint. We validate it. Then we work with you and the casino to reach a solution.
Every case stays public on the page, permanently. Resolved cases get marked resolved. Unresolved ones stay open and lower the operator's FairGambling
rating.
If you've got an open case, file it.
if your money loses 10% a month just sitting there, a 96% rtp slot feels like the better choice. when saving stops working, the long shot is the last try to escape the underclass
argentina, turkey, zimbabwe, venezuela.... in all four countries, gambling searches track the currency collapse
argentina went x45 into the 2023 peak, then halved as inflation came down. same people, same phones, same casinos. only the money changed
Argentina's "casino online" searches rose 45x as inflation climbed to 289%. Then inflation fell, and searches halved. No crackdown, no ad ban. Just a currency that held its value again.
When money is dying, the house edge is the cheaper fee. Here's the math:
fairgambling.com/in-depth/wh…
a us appeals court ruled on aug 28 that nevada can enforce its gambling laws against kalshi's sports contracts. all three judges. first loss for kalshi at this level
kalshi's argument was that these are swaps, not bets, so only federal regulators get a say. the court said calling them swaps doesn't change what they are, and that denying they're sports bets is disingenuous
@mattkalish has been saying that since may and got told to stfu for it
the numbers the court quoted from kalshi's own filings: over 90% of 2025 trades, 95% of revenue, sports
meanwhile weekly volume across kalshi and polymarket went from $0.6b last september to $10.2b during world cup week. it's $8.5b now, the world cup didn't spike but doubled the total volume of prediction market sports volumes and sports season just started
the same sports bet is unlicensed gambling if a crypto casino offers it, but was a financial product if you wrapped it in an order book. one court just said the wrapper doesn't change the thing inside
Read more & the details:
fairgambling.com/news/states…
We're hiring a Community & Operations Lead - (+ referral bonus)
At FairGambling we'd rather hire from the community than post on job boards.
Last time we posted a role here on X, we found our Streamer Manager - who’s now successfully running our streamer product and the @DegenHighs page.
This time, we’re looking for a VIP Host.
You might be a great fit if:
- You’re not boring and are genuinely fun to talk to
- You’re structured and process-oriented
- You have experience or a strong interest in iGaming
- You enjoy interacting with users and being part of the community
You get:
- Fully remote
- Flexible working hours
- Highly competitive salary + performance bonus
Apply here: forms.gle/gzoJSEWafspYBLDW8
Or know someone that fits? We are paying a $1,000 referral bonus!
stake launched moon.com (@getonmoon) about ten days ago. charts, up or down, leverage up to 1000x on crypto, stocks, futures, commodities and forex. 24/7, including equities outside market hours
it works like a trading terminal, with one difference that's actually in your favour: your max loss is your wager. no margin calls, no topping up a position, no going below zero
opening costs 1% of your wager, the rest goes into your position. then a holding fee every 8 hours, same idea as funding on an exchange, except the rate isn't published. their own calculator: $50,000 at 25x held 13 hours costs $6,778. and 10% of your profit if you win, nothing if you lose
that stack is why you can't arbitrage it against a real exchange. no price gap survives 1% in, 10% out and holding on top
everything is open. live bets as they happen, the current up/down bias on every asset, a leaderboard, and you can follow individual users. @outlaw and @schneckyirl are both on there. rakeback on fees, vip ranks and level-up bonuses on top. all chains, all coins
we traced the hot wallets across four chains. $436,476 in player deposits, from 236 depositors
Moon.com launched with 1,000x leverage and appears to be backed by an industry titan.
We read the terms, ran the fee math and traced the license.
Our first impressions:
fairgambling.com/guides/moon…
seb retweeted
@Shufflecom, a FairGambling thread. An independent score across 10 weighted categories: games, bonuses, support, compliance and live on-chain data. Final FairGambling Score: 86.2 / 100. Full breakdown 🧵
Monarch AMA, tldw
Money
- Duel doing ~$10M/month
- Empire still ~$4M/month profit, but higher house edge, which is why he never pushed it hard
- Duel domain: $900,000
- ~$5M on celebrity blackjack appearances so far
- Tyson the most expensive by far
- Mia Malkova under $1M, still "pretty expensive". Bonnie was priced similarly
Coming to Duel
- Triton-sponsored heads-up tournament for super high rollers
- Private poker games with custom lineups
- In-house slots, he says he really wants to build them
- Optional bonus mode: you get the bonuses, you pay in house edge
- Calls Stake Engine a cool concept, wants to build a version with a better house edge
- Long-term deal signed with Clavicular
- No CS team yet, and he knows it
- Still needs an influencer manager before streamers can get fills
- Denied firing most of the staff, joked they haven't fired enough
- X account coming back soon, he thinks
The fake-money thing
- The fake-balance streamers are deliberate. He calls it parody, says thepoint is to make viewers start questioning whether anything they watch is real
- Still open to sponsoring streamers if the content is good
- Says all gambling streamers are scum
- Claims everybody knows Roshtein plays on a fake balance, and would bet heavily that Trainwrecks does too (his allegation, unverified)
Shots fired
- Asked whether he lost respect for Empire, he compared the two to children: Empire the "Down syndrome child" vs Duel the "super giga child". Says they still love Empire, but Duel mogs it
- Gamdom "desperate" for signing SteveWillDoIt, thinks they're overpaying for streamers to stay relevant
- Says Goobr didn't leave for higher limits
- Doesn't think Kick would sell Rainbet-style ads to anyone else, says Sean Park has "very, very special connections"
- Still has 20-30 people on the radar from the CS gambling stuff
The Tate story
- Tate was reportedly on his way to doing a blackjack appearance
- Went quiet for months after the Bottom G stream
- Came back saying they should do it immediately, "time kills us all"
- Arrested shortly after
52,234 wallets have deposited exactly $100 into stake since august 6
64,312 deposits. $6.43M all on bsc, the cheapest chain to do this
84% of them deposited once, most have no other transaction. 99.8% are less than a week old
so we traced where their money came from
it goes in a circle
stake's hot wallet pays out to 7 addresses.
those 7 split it into $100 portions across thousands of fresh wallets.
those wallets deposit exactly $100 back into stake.
the 7 received $1,004,884 from stake across 5,139 withdrawals.
for scale: the median stake withdrawal on bsc is $4. these seven averaged $195
now the part i want to be careful about
a withdrawal from stake is just a user taking their money out. stake's hot wallet being the origin doesn't mean stake ran this. it means the money sat at stake before it went around
and it's not one operator. in a sample from aug 12 we found 906 different funding sources across nine exchanges. the circuit above explains part of
this, not all of it
what it looks like: a farm chasing something tied to new depositors. bonus, points, leaderboard, airdrop. same amount every time, fresh address every
time, dead after
peak was aug 12 (same time Stake went dont for a short time) 9,840 wallets in one day, 3,455 in a single hour. at
19:04 we counted 92 deposits from 92 different addresses in one minute.
before aug 6, exact-$100 deposits were 1.5-3.8% of stake's bsc traffic for months. last week: 19.8%
was stake attacked by bots?
Back in May, Bluff had at least $3.37M sitting in their hot wallets.
Today: $82,105. Two of their six wallets are at $109 and $1.
So where did it go?
Not a hack. Not one big transfer. They simply paid out more than they took in - every single month, four months straight. Nearly half of it happened in May.
May -$1,599,229
June -$405,627
July -$802,492
August -$492,575
And the deposits died with it. $1.44M came in during May.
In August: $85,750. That's 94% less
$82,105 today + $3.28M net outflow = $3.37M in May.
As for who received it - the single biggest destination is Bluff's own routing wallet. Besides that, four addresses took half of everything that left.
$621,309 is provably cashed out through exchanges: $360,894 to @WhiteBIT, $260,415 to @Binance
A few others are just normal wallets, pulling $100k -$300k out of Bluff and depositing millions at Roobet, Shuffle and Sportsbet.io now. might be players just like @PeterKolui
August 3 was one of the biggest days -$478,000 gone in two hours, across all three chains at once
To be clear: we only see hot wallets. No cold storage, no fiat, no books
I'm not calling this insolvency. No mixer, no bridge, nothing hidden - the money went to exchanges and to maybe players.
$982K locked for a year at 12% APY for PSG to win Ligue 1 26/27
that's stablecoin yield with actual risk
quick comparison with Polymarket:
- $982K would pay $1,087,291 (1.10x) due to thin liquidity
- $1K would pay $1,141.95 (1.14x)
- Stake pays 1.12x regardless of size
smaller size gets better odds on prediction markets, whales get worse. sportsbooks still win on liquidity, bonusing and lossback
adding context to @Degen_Sports - follow to get notified on any sport bet or cashout above $200k
