Since 2022/23, this profile produced: +527,88 units, average ROI per season is 7,67%.
Serbia
Joined December 2022
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Just a quick look back at last season. The full recap, with a separate breakdown for each competition, will be published tomorrow.
The VIP Group PROMO PRICES are still available — DM for more information.
THE ENTIRE SEASON RECAP:
TOTAL PROFIT MADE IN THE ENTIRE SEASON (ALL 3 LEVELS): +178,21 units
STRAIGHT BETS (ALL 3 LEVELS): 1115-797 (58,31%)
PARLAY BETS: 84-293 (28,66%)
UNITS RISKED: 2078,10 units
UNITS WON: 2256,31 units
ROI: 8,58%
🤖 Made with AI
Take a few minutes to read this. If you have anything to say, whether it's negative, positive, critical, or whatever else, leave a comment below. It would mean a lot to me...
I've always been transparent, and I always will be. Every single bet, whether it's a winner or a loser, is recorded in a Google Sheets spreadsheet available to all VIP members, serving as a tracker of both my personal performance and the group's overall results. I feel the need to share something here as well...
Throughout my entire betting career, I've always been known as a high-volume bettor when it comes to the NBA. I could have taken a different approach, but why change something that had worked for the previous nine years? Unfortunately, things are completely different now.
That same high-volume approach has brought me to the lowest point of my NBA betting career. I sincerely hope I'll find my way out of it soon.
Here's the situation...
I've been doing this for 10 full years. During the previous nine, I had never-even been on the negative side of the bankroll, no matter at what point of the season is. an This season, however, I've started at -21.48u, with an overall hit rate below 42%, a combination of terrible bets, poor decisions, and unfortunate circumstances (over 20 hooks, four injuries, and so on).
None of that is an excuse.
If I were looking for excuses, I wouldn't be writing this in the first place, let alone posting it publicly in front of almost 10,000 people, every single one of whom could potentially become a future client.
I'm not writing this to gain sympathy or to justify poor results. I'm writing it because I genuinely believe that transparency shouldn't exist only when you're winning, posting profits, and everything looks perfect.
If I've been here to publicly celebrate my success, then I also have to be here to publicly acknowledge my failures.
At the end of the day, I'm also writing this for myself. To find some extra motivation heading into the rest of the season, to rebuild my shaken confidence and motivation, and to remind myself why I started doing this in the first place.
We're still at the very beginning of the season. I don't know what the rest of it will bring, but one thing I do know is that I'll never stop being transparent, regardless of the results.
Thank you to everyone who's still here, especially those who continue to support me even when things aren't going well.
Sincerely,
Serbian NBA Capper
This is absolutely my favorite bet on today's slate, and I'm really hoping Murphy finally has a breakout performance, because this is THE MOST IDEAL matchup possible for his offensive role with the Pelicans this season.
Murphy's offensive role this season has been much more focused on playing off the ball rather than creating with it. That didn't change even against SAS, where he was primarily looking to score through C&S / SU situations, apart from that one three-pointer he created for himself over Sabonis. This is absolutely perfect for tonight's matchup.
The Hawks help WAY TOO MUCH defensively, frequently clogging the paint whenever drive-first players attack the rim, and they get absolutely destroyed by kick-out passes. Here, we have the perfect combination of a drive-first player (Zion) and an elite shooter (Murphy), as illustrated in picture #3.
They also frequently played zone defense against the Cavs, and it would make perfect sense for them to do the same against the Pelicans (picture #2). That would allow them to neutralize Zion and his driving game, while Queen and Matkovic are absolutely NOT legitimate perimeter shooting threats. Once again, spot-up shooters would be the biggest beneficiaries.
Another noticeable tendency is that the Hawks provide a lot of help on switches, often delaying the switch after screens. While this significantly reduces mismatches, their defense becomes vulnerable to extra passes and open three-point attempts (picture #1). I believe we'll see several sets tonight with Murphy operating as the screener.
Overall, the Hawks have been absolutely TERRIBLE at defending forwards, ranking as the #4 WORST team in the league against F positions. Statistically, they also allow the MOST points in the entire NBA inside the restricted area, where Murphy takes a healthy portion of his shots (30%).
However, I believe the biggest strength of this bet lies in the fact that Murphy will be facing a defense that constantly gambles by leaving three-point shooters open due to all the defensive tendencies mentioned above.
Looking at how forwards have performed against the Hawks recently, we get the following numbers: Merrill 16 (4/8 from three), Tyson 3 (1/5 from three), Larsson 17 (2/3) & Wiggins 18 (4/7), Smith 16 (2/6) & Eason 13 (1/3), Reid 17 (3/8) & Allen 11 (3/6) through 3 quarters, da Silva 14 (4/10).
Who's with me for today's NBA FREE PLAY of the DAY?
If you're going to tail this one - give me a L/RT here!
1u T.Murphy o16.5 [FanDuel] 1.89
LADDERING:
Murphy 30+ points [DraftKings] 12.60
Murphy 5+ 3-pointers [FanDuel] 6.50
Murphy 6+ 3-pointers [FanDuel] 11.60
Murphy 7+ 3-pointers [FanDuel] 20.00
Murphy 8+ 3-pointers [FanDuel] 40.00
Serbian NBA Capper retweeted
Who's with me for today's NBA FREE PLAY of the DAY?
If you're going to tail this one - give me a L/RT here!
1u T.Murphy o16.5 [FanDuel] 1.89
LADDERING:
Murphy 30+ points [DraftKings] 12.60
Murphy 5+ 3-pointers [FanDuel] 6.50
Murphy 6+ 3-pointers [FanDuel] 11.60
Murphy 7+ 3-pointers [FanDuel] 20.00
Murphy 8+ 3-pointers [FanDuel] 40.00
Who's with me for today's NBA FREE PLAY of the DAY?
If you're going to tail this one - give me a L/RT here!
1u T.Murphy o16.5 [FanDuel] 1.89
LADDERING:
Murphy 30+ points [DraftKings] 12.60
Murphy 5+ 3-pointers [FanDuel] 6.50
Murphy 6+ 3-pointers [FanDuel] 11.60
Murphy 7+ 3-pointers [FanDuel] 20.00
Murphy 8+ 3-pointers [FanDuel] 40.00
Two great reads finished with a split.
Reid finished the game with 12 points while shooting 5/17 & 0/2 FT.
Coulibaly- one of the best reads of the season so far...
Bilal Coulibaly u8,5 ✅
Naz Reid o17,5 ❌
Let's start dropping the FREE VIP PLAYS!
If you want to get a ton more plays, make sure to L/RT this post - 40+ L/RT to unlock two more plays!
1u N.Reid o17.5 [DraftKings] 1.90
1u B.Coulibaly u8.5 [DraftKings] 1.85
Bilal Coulibaly – UNDER Points
The Washington Wizards are absolutely STACKED offensively — they have way too many players with solid offensive involvement and USG%, and with Dybantsa returning to the floor, alongside the likely return of Tre Johnson, someone will inevitably have to sacrifice either their usage, minutes, or both.
I believe Bilal will be used primarily as someone who gets his points EXCLUSIVELY in transition or when left wide open for spot-up shots. In half-court offense, I simply don't see Coulibaly having much of a role, and I think he will struggle tremendously not only to score points, but even to get shot attempts.
The Hornets are exactly the type of team we want to target here! Statistically, Charlotte allows the #10 FEWEST points in transition, #3 FEWEST points from spot-up situations, and #6 FEWEST points from free throws. Coulibaly generates practically all of his scoring from these areas, and tonight he faces a defense ranked TOP-10 in every single one of those categories.
Furthermore, the Hornets have an above-average paint defense, allowing the #10 FEWEST points from within approximately 10 feet of the basket, which is where Bilal attempts 73% of his total shots.
There are simply too many mouths to feed in Washington. With Dybantsa returning and Johnson potentially coming back as well, I believe Bilal's offensive role could become even more limited. My projection is around 25 minutes and NO MORE than 6 FGA.
In their first matchup against Charlotte this season, Coulibaly played WITHOUT Dybantsa and still managed just 3 points on 5 FGA in 29 minutes.
Reid is one of those bets that falls into the Public-One category, but in my opinion, the value on his 16.5 line is absolutely OFF THE CHARTS, which is why I simply had to take it for 1.50u.
In his previous game against Detroit, Reid was benched due to a disciplinary decision by head coach Charles Lee, limiting him to just 13 minutes. I believe that decision could actually have a positive impact on Reid, and I genuinely hope it gives him extra motivation to OVERPERFORM tonight.
Reid is ABSOLUTELY ESSENTIAL for the Hornets in this matchup because Washington frequently uses lineups featuring two big men, and now they've added Dybantsa, who is HUGE, into the mix. Charlotte desperately needs size against these lineups, and I genuinely believe that if the game stays competitive, Reid could see 33–36 minutes, without exaggeration.
Reid's USG% is absolutely OFF THE CHARTS and simply DOES NOT belong to a player with a 16.5-point line. This type of usage is usually associated with players whose scoring lines are set around 23.5–24.5. If we exclude the Detroit game, Reid is averaging approximately 27% USG per game! Last season, with a similar usage rate to his current one, Reid had an incredible 69.3% hit rate!
I've already written extensively about how SLASHERS have been causing Washington serious problems, and we've successfully cashed bets on Jaquez, Buzelis, and Watson by exploiting exactly that weakness. Reid is the PERFECT player profile for everything I've previously discussed regarding the Wizards' defensive vulnerabilities.
In his first matchup against Washington this season, Reid finished with 18 points on a massive 22 FGA.
Unnecessary sweaty after Rudy recorded 19th PR point at the beginning of the 3Q. Regardless, I'll take this one! ✅
Rudy Gobert P+R o21.5 ✅
Potentially one more bet to come from the upcoming games! Turn your notifications on!
1u R.Gobert (T-Wolves) P+R o21.5 [FanDuel] 1.87
Gobert was an absolutely TERRIBLE bet in the previous matchup against GSW, where it was more than reasonable to expect Golden State to utilize small-ball lineups, which completely destroyed Gobert and his drop coverage (Curry finished with 40+ points).
Tonight, however, the situation should be completely different, considering that LAC uses Jackson in the starting lineup and Lopez in the second unit — meaning Gobert's presence on the floor will be ABSOLUTELY ESSENTIAL.
The Clippers have tremendous difficulties defending opposing big men for several reasons.
First of all, they're extremely aggressive against ball handlers at the top, with Jackson frequently blitzing dominant PnR ball handlers (we could see that approach against Ball again tonight). As a result, the roll man often gets a FREEWAY to the basket, or an extra pass creates a defensive breakdown and an easy finish at the rim.
Secondly, with Jackson at center, LAC has serious size-related issues, and I genuinely hope Gobert manages to exploit the HUGE physical advantage he'll have in this matchup.
Statistically speaking, the Clippers allow the #4 MOST rebounds to opposing centers in the entire league, #3 MOST points in the paint (PITP), and #3 MOST points within the restricted area (RA). Needless to say, Gobert scores practically ALL of his points inside the restricted area.
Although he's been struggling tremendously to put the ball in the basket this season, I genuinely believe this matchup is TAILOR-MADE for Gobert. I'm hoping for a strong performance and potentially even a DOUBLE-DOUBLE, as practically every relevant factor points toward that possibility.
If we look at how opposing centers have performed against LAC to start the season, the numbers speak for themselves:
Sabonis 14 PTS / 18 REB & Achiuwa 15/5, Kessler 22/8, Hartenstein 12/12, Mamu 13/8 & Kessler 11/9.
Ball is an excellent passer out of the pick-and-roll, and I believe we could FINALLY see that connection working effectively tonight.
Furthermore, with Edwards also OUT, I genuinely hope Minnesota's offense will look considerably more fluid, allowing Gobert to receive several easy passes around the rim and finish them with alley-oop dunks.
Potentially one more bet to come from the upcoming games! Turn your notifications on!
1u R.Gobert (T-Wolves) P+R o21.5 [FanDuel] 1.87
Gobert was an absolutely TERRIBLE bet in the previous matchup against GSW, where it was more than reasonable to expect Golden State to utilize small-ball lineups, which completely destroyed Gobert and his drop coverage (Curry finished with 40+ points).
Tonight, however, the situation should be completely different, considering that LAC uses Jackson in the starting lineup and Lopez in the second unit — meaning Gobert's presence on the floor will be ABSOLUTELY ESSENTIAL.
The Clippers have tremendous difficulties defending opposing big men for several reasons.
First of all, they're extremely aggressive against ball handlers at the top, with Jackson frequently blitzing dominant PnR ball handlers (we could see that approach against Ball again tonight). As a result, the roll man often gets a FREEWAY to the basket, or an extra pass creates a defensive breakdown and an easy finish at the rim.
Secondly, with Jackson at center, LAC has serious size-related issues, and I genuinely hope Gobert manages to exploit the HUGE physical advantage he'll have in this matchup.
Statistically speaking, the Clippers allow the #4 MOST rebounds to opposing centers in the entire league, #3 MOST points in the paint (PITP), and #3 MOST points within the restricted area (RA). Needless to say, Gobert scores practically ALL of his points inside the restricted area.
Although he's been struggling tremendously to put the ball in the basket this season, I genuinely believe this matchup is TAILOR-MADE for Gobert. I'm hoping for a strong performance and potentially even a DOUBLE-DOUBLE, as practically every relevant factor points toward that possibility.
If we look at how opposing centers have performed against LAC to start the season, the numbers speak for themselves:
Sabonis 14 PTS / 18 REB & Achiuwa 15/5, Kessler 22/8, Hartenstein 12/12, Mamu 13/8 & Kessler 11/9.
Ball is an excellent passer out of the pick-and-roll, and I believe we could FINALLY see that connection working effectively tonight.
Furthermore, with Edwards also OUT, I genuinely hope Minnesota's offense will look considerably more fluid, allowing Gobert to receive several easy passes around the rim and finish them with alley-oop dunks.
Let's try our luck with this one - give me 35+ L/RT to unlock TWO more plays!
1u S.Mamukelashvili (Lakers) P+R o13.5 [DraftKings] 1.87
We're going with Mamukelashvili AGAIN after he delivered for us relatively comfortably against the Clippers. Having learned from the Gobert situation, I'm absolutely convinced that Mamu could reach approximately 30 minutes tonight without much difficulty.
First of all, Ziaire Williams is OUT, leaving a vacancy at the PF position, which Mamu is more than capable of filling alongside his usual role as the second-unit center whenever Kessler is on the bench.
Because of Steph Curry and his potentially lethal outside shooting, if we see a repeat of the Minnesota scenario, I'm 99% CERTAIN that Mamu will be the one getting minutes at center. He's agile enough to defend SC in hedge coverage, and if that happens, I genuinely believe this line is off by a solid 3–4 P+R points. Either way, it looks TOO LOW.
I'm almost certain Luka will face a BILLION different defensive coverages tonight. He'll see practically everything EXCEPT single coverage. As a general rule, the players who benefit the most against those defensive schemes are spot-up shooters and roll men — and Mamu fits BOTH categories perfectly.
Statistically speaking, GSW allows the #10 MOST points from spot-up situations and #7 MOST points in the paint across the entire league. So far this season, MAMU has scored practically ALL of his points through those two types of possessions.
On top of that, Golden State ranks as the #10 WORST defense against catch-and-shoot situations.
Matching his minutes with Horford could create plenty of favorable opportunities, particularly in PnR actions with Luka, where I expect Horford to hedge AGGRESSIVELY and FREQUENTLY.
In my opinion, this line is LOWER than it should be — I would personally have it closer to 14.5 P+R, so I'm hoping for a relatively comfortable cash tonight.
In his previous matchup against GSW, which turned into a massive blowout, Mamu recorded just 9 P+R (5 points / 4 rebounds). However, he still finished that game with 10 REBOUND CHANCES, which isn't surprising at all considering Golden State's lack of size.
Serbian NBA Capper retweeted
Let's start dropping the FREE VIP PLAYS!
If you want to get a ton more plays, make sure to L/RT this post - 40+ L/RT to unlock two more plays!
1u N.Reid o17.5 [DraftKings] 1.90
1u B.Coulibaly u8.5 [DraftKings] 1.85
Bilal Coulibaly – UNDER Points
The Washington Wizards are absolutely STACKED offensively — they have way too many players with solid offensive involvement and USG%, and with Dybantsa returning to the floor, alongside the likely return of Tre Johnson, someone will inevitably have to sacrifice either their usage, minutes, or both.
I believe Bilal will be used primarily as someone who gets his points EXCLUSIVELY in transition or when left wide open for spot-up shots. In half-court offense, I simply don't see Coulibaly having much of a role, and I think he will struggle tremendously not only to score points, but even to get shot attempts.
The Hornets are exactly the type of team we want to target here! Statistically, Charlotte allows the #10 FEWEST points in transition, #3 FEWEST points from spot-up situations, and #6 FEWEST points from free throws. Coulibaly generates practically all of his scoring from these areas, and tonight he faces a defense ranked TOP-10 in every single one of those categories.
Furthermore, the Hornets have an above-average paint defense, allowing the #10 FEWEST points from within approximately 10 feet of the basket, which is where Bilal attempts 73% of his total shots.
There are simply too many mouths to feed in Washington. With Dybantsa returning and Johnson potentially coming back as well, I believe Bilal's offensive role could become even more limited. My projection is around 25 minutes and NO MORE than 6 FGA.
In their first matchup against Charlotte this season, Coulibaly played WITHOUT Dybantsa and still managed just 3 points on 5 FGA in 29 minutes.
Reid is one of those bets that falls into the Public-One category, but in my opinion, the value on his 16.5 line is absolutely OFF THE CHARTS, which is why I simply had to take it for 1.50u.
In his previous game against Detroit, Reid was benched due to a disciplinary decision by head coach Charles Lee, limiting him to just 13 minutes. I believe that decision could actually have a positive impact on Reid, and I genuinely hope it gives him extra motivation to OVERPERFORM tonight.
Reid is ABSOLUTELY ESSENTIAL for the Hornets in this matchup because Washington frequently uses lineups featuring two big men, and now they've added Dybantsa, who is HUGE, into the mix. Charlotte desperately needs size against these lineups, and I genuinely believe that if the game stays competitive, Reid could see 33–36 minutes, without exaggeration.
Reid's USG% is absolutely OFF THE CHARTS and simply DOES NOT belong to a player with a 16.5-point line. This type of usage is usually associated with players whose scoring lines are set around 23.5–24.5. If we exclude the Detroit game, Reid is averaging approximately 27% USG per game! Last season, with a similar usage rate to his current one, Reid had an incredible 69.3% hit rate!
I've already written extensively about how SLASHERS have been causing Washington serious problems, and we've successfully cashed bets on Jaquez, Buzelis, and Watson by exploiting exactly that weakness. Reid is the PERFECT player profile for everything I've previously discussed regarding the Wizards' defensive vulnerabilities.
In his first matchup against Washington this season, Reid finished with 18 points on a massive 22 FGA.
Let's start dropping the FREE VIP PLAYS!
If you want to get a ton more plays, make sure to L/RT this post - 40+ L/RT to unlock two more plays!
1u N.Reid o17.5 [DraftKings] 1.90
1u B.Coulibaly u8.5 [DraftKings] 1.85
Bilal Coulibaly – UNDER Points
The Washington Wizards are absolutely STACKED offensively — they have way too many players with solid offensive involvement and USG%, and with Dybantsa returning to the floor, alongside the likely return of Tre Johnson, someone will inevitably have to sacrifice either their usage, minutes, or both.
I believe Bilal will be used primarily as someone who gets his points EXCLUSIVELY in transition or when left wide open for spot-up shots. In half-court offense, I simply don't see Coulibaly having much of a role, and I think he will struggle tremendously not only to score points, but even to get shot attempts.
The Hornets are exactly the type of team we want to target here! Statistically, Charlotte allows the #10 FEWEST points in transition, #3 FEWEST points from spot-up situations, and #6 FEWEST points from free throws. Coulibaly generates practically all of his scoring from these areas, and tonight he faces a defense ranked TOP-10 in every single one of those categories.
Furthermore, the Hornets have an above-average paint defense, allowing the #10 FEWEST points from within approximately 10 feet of the basket, which is where Bilal attempts 73% of his total shots.
There are simply too many mouths to feed in Washington. With Dybantsa returning and Johnson potentially coming back as well, I believe Bilal's offensive role could become even more limited. My projection is around 25 minutes and NO MORE than 6 FGA.
In their first matchup against Charlotte this season, Coulibaly played WITHOUT Dybantsa and still managed just 3 points on 5 FGA in 29 minutes.
Reid is one of those bets that falls into the Public-One category, but in my opinion, the value on his 16.5 line is absolutely OFF THE CHARTS, which is why I simply had to take it for 1.50u.
In his previous game against Detroit, Reid was benched due to a disciplinary decision by head coach Charles Lee, limiting him to just 13 minutes. I believe that decision could actually have a positive impact on Reid, and I genuinely hope it gives him extra motivation to OVERPERFORM tonight.
Reid is ABSOLUTELY ESSENTIAL for the Hornets in this matchup because Washington frequently uses lineups featuring two big men, and now they've added Dybantsa, who is HUGE, into the mix. Charlotte desperately needs size against these lineups, and I genuinely believe that if the game stays competitive, Reid could see 33–36 minutes, without exaggeration.
Reid's USG% is absolutely OFF THE CHARTS and simply DOES NOT belong to a player with a 16.5-point line. This type of usage is usually associated with players whose scoring lines are set around 23.5–24.5. If we exclude the Detroit game, Reid is averaging approximately 27% USG per game! Last season, with a similar usage rate to his current one, Reid had an incredible 69.3% hit rate!
I've already written extensively about how SLASHERS have been causing Washington serious problems, and we've successfully cashed bets on Jaquez, Buzelis, and Watson by exploiting exactly that weakness. Reid is the PERFECT player profile for everything I've previously discussed regarding the Wizards' defensive vulnerabilities.
In his first matchup against Washington this season, Reid finished with 18 points on a massive 22 FGA.
AN ABSOLUTE MONSTROSITY OF THE NIGHT - BEST PART OF ALL? EVERYTHING WAS FREE! 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Give me 50+ L/RT and I'll drop the entire NBA slate!
Who tailed these beauties? 👀
1u Keaton Wallace (Maccabi) to score 6+ points ✅ 1.90
1u Yam Madar (Maccabi) to record 5+ assists ✅ 1.90
1.25u Andres Feliz (RealbMadrid) u12.5 ✅ 1.80
1u Shavon Shields (Fenerbahce) AST. u2.5 ✅ 1.70
1u Theo Maledon (Real Madrid) AST. u5.5 ✅ 1.81
1u Real Madrid vs Fenerbahce 173.5u ✅ 1.87
1u V.Lucic (Bayern) to score 5+ points ✅ 2.08
1u Justinian Jessup (Bayern) 7.5u 🔄 1.81
1u Ebuka Izundu (Red Star) to score 5+ points 🔄 2.00
The entire European slate from the VIP Group is in front of you - please, make sure to drop some L/RT/COMMENTS below this post!
1.25U A.Feliz (Real Madrid) u12.5 [MGM] 1.80
1u T.Maledon (Real Madrid) AST. u5.5 [FanDuel] 1.81
1u S.Shields (Fenerbahce) AST. u2.5 [FanDuel] 1.70
1u Real Madrid vs Fenerbahce UNDER 173.5 [FanDuel] 1.87
FELIZ UNDER:
Even though Feliz is having the best season of his career, this line is simply WAY TOO HIGH against Fenerbahce. He's put together several excellent performances against teams from the lower half of the EuroLeague standings — Milano, ASVEL, Maccabi and Baskonia — which has caused his line to increase significantly.
Real Madrid scored 98+ points in all of those games, and I highly doubt they'll get anywhere close to that number tonight. I expect Fenerbahce to do everything possible to slow down the pace, and historically, Feliz has struggled against Jasikevicius' Fenerbahce, scoring just 0, 2, 9 and 2 points in their four previous meetings.
MALEDON UNDER:
Fenerbahce allows the FEWEST team assists in the entire EuroLeague, and I believe this line is simply too high for Maledon.
His performances against ASVEL and Baskonia, where he recorded 6 and 9 assists respectively, have inflated his averages, and I don't see him producing similar numbers against Fenerbahce's defense.
Last season, Maledon recorded just 0 and 4 assists in his two meetings with Fenerbahce. On top of that, Campazzo remains Real Madrid's primary playmaker despite his relatively disappointing start to the season. With all that in mind, I strongly believe Maledon stays UNDER this line tonight.
SHIELDS UNDER:
After recording 8 consecutive UNDERS, Shields finally finished with 3 assists against Valencia in the previous round, and now he's back on the board.
I've been saying for quite some time that with so many ball handlers on Fenerbahce's roster, there's simply NO REASON for Shields to have his assists line set at 2.5.
I still believe this line is too high, and there's not much to add compared to my analysis from a few rounds ago when I explained this exact bet.
Shields has played 13 games this season, going UNDER 2.5 assists in 10/13 games, with only 3 OVERS. Interestingly enough, in ALL THREE games where he went over, he finished with EXACTLY 3 assists.
...and another one! 🔥🔥🔥
I think we won't see Shields being set at 2,5 anymore - 2 assists game! ✅
1u S.Shields (Fenerbahce) AST. u2.5 ✅
Who tailed this one? 👀
The entire European slate from the VIP Group is in front of you - please, make sure to drop some L/RT/COMMENTS below this post!
1.25U A.Feliz (Real Madrid) u12.5 [MGM] 1.80
1u T.Maledon (Real Madrid) AST. u5.5 [FanDuel] 1.81
1u S.Shields (Fenerbahce) AST. u2.5 [FanDuel] 1.70
1u Real Madrid vs Fenerbahce UNDER 173.5 [FanDuel] 1.87
FELIZ UNDER:
Even though Feliz is having the best season of his career, this line is simply WAY TOO HIGH against Fenerbahce. He's put together several excellent performances against teams from the lower half of the EuroLeague standings — Milano, ASVEL, Maccabi and Baskonia — which has caused his line to increase significantly.
Real Madrid scored 98+ points in all of those games, and I highly doubt they'll get anywhere close to that number tonight. I expect Fenerbahce to do everything possible to slow down the pace, and historically, Feliz has struggled against Jasikevicius' Fenerbahce, scoring just 0, 2, 9 and 2 points in their four previous meetings.
MALEDON UNDER:
Fenerbahce allows the FEWEST team assists in the entire EuroLeague, and I believe this line is simply too high for Maledon.
His performances against ASVEL and Baskonia, where he recorded 6 and 9 assists respectively, have inflated his averages, and I don't see him producing similar numbers against Fenerbahce's defense.
Last season, Maledon recorded just 0 and 4 assists in his two meetings with Fenerbahce. On top of that, Campazzo remains Real Madrid's primary playmaker despite his relatively disappointing start to the season. With all that in mind, I strongly believe Maledon stays UNDER this line tonight.
SHIELDS UNDER:
After recording 8 consecutive UNDERS, Shields finally finished with 3 assists against Valencia in the previous round, and now he's back on the board.
I've been saying for quite some time that with so many ball handlers on Fenerbahce's roster, there's simply NO REASON for Shields to have his assists line set at 2.5.
I still believe this line is too high, and there's not much to add compared to my analysis from a few rounds ago when I explained this exact bet.
Shields has played 13 games this season, going UNDER 2.5 assists in 10/13 games, with only 3 OVERS. Interestingly enough, in ALL THREE games where he went over, he finished with EXACTLY 3 assists.
Let's start announcing winners, shall we? 🔥🔥🔥
Theo Maledon with the season-low 1 assist - another NO-SWEAT WINNER ✅
1u T.Maledon (Real Madrid) AST. u5.5 ✅ 1.81
Who tailed this one? 👀
The entire European slate from the VIP Group is in front of you - please, make sure to drop some L/RT/COMMENTS below this post!
1.25U A.Feliz (Real Madrid) u12.5 [MGM] 1.80
1u T.Maledon (Real Madrid) AST. u5.5 [FanDuel] 1.81
1u S.Shields (Fenerbahce) AST. u2.5 [FanDuel] 1.70
1u Real Madrid vs Fenerbahce UNDER 173.5 [FanDuel] 1.87
FELIZ UNDER:
Even though Feliz is having the best season of his career, this line is simply WAY TOO HIGH against Fenerbahce. He's put together several excellent performances against teams from the lower half of the EuroLeague standings — Milano, ASVEL, Maccabi and Baskonia — which has caused his line to increase significantly.
Real Madrid scored 98+ points in all of those games, and I highly doubt they'll get anywhere close to that number tonight. I expect Fenerbahce to do everything possible to slow down the pace, and historically, Feliz has struggled against Jasikevicius' Fenerbahce, scoring just 0, 2, 9 and 2 points in their four previous meetings.
MALEDON UNDER:
Fenerbahce allows the FEWEST team assists in the entire EuroLeague, and I believe this line is simply too high for Maledon.
His performances against ASVEL and Baskonia, where he recorded 6 and 9 assists respectively, have inflated his averages, and I don't see him producing similar numbers against Fenerbahce's defense.
Last season, Maledon recorded just 0 and 4 assists in his two meetings with Fenerbahce. On top of that, Campazzo remains Real Madrid's primary playmaker despite his relatively disappointing start to the season. With all that in mind, I strongly believe Maledon stays UNDER this line tonight.
SHIELDS UNDER:
After recording 8 consecutive UNDERS, Shields finally finished with 3 assists against Valencia in the previous round, and now he's back on the board.
I've been saying for quite some time that with so many ball handlers on Fenerbahce's roster, there's simply NO REASON for Shields to have his assists line set at 2.5.
I still believe this line is too high, and there's not much to add compared to my analysis from a few rounds ago when I explained this exact bet.
Shields has played 13 games this season, going UNDER 2.5 assists in 10/13 games, with only 3 OVERS. Interestingly enough, in ALL THREE games where he went over, he finished with EXACTLY 3 assists.
Another NO-SWEAT WINNER! ✅
An early 3Q cash for Yam Madar who might chase a double-digit number of assists!
1u Y.Madar (Maccabi) AST. 5+ ✅ 1.90
Who tailed this one? 👀
Give me 50+ L/RT here - and I'll drop 4 more EUROPEAN PLAYS!
1u J.Jessup (Bayern) u7.5 [FanDuel] 1.81
1u E.Izundu (Red Star) 5+ points [FanDuel] 2.00
1u K.Wallace (Maccabi) 6+ points [FanDuel] 1.90
1u Y.Madar (Maccabi) 5+ AST. [FanDuel] 1.90
Izundu:
Crvena Zvezda will host Bayern Munich tonight in front of their home crowd, facing a team that has struggled massively to defend big men throughout the entire season — especially centers. Literally every single team Bayern has faced in the EuroLeague so far has managed to exploit this weakness.
Wiley, Theis, and Da Silva are simply incapable of defending anything in the paint. On top of that, Bayern allows a tremendous amount of second-chance points, while their PnR defense is practically NONEXISTENT. Izundu generates almost all of his points through offensive rebounds and opportunities created by his teammates out of the pick-and-roll, making him an absolutely ideal fit for the matchup we're targeting tonight.
Koloko's arrival shouldn't have much of an impact on Izundu's minutes, as he was always projected to be the team's backup center anyway. Therefore, I expect him to get around 15 minutes tonight, which should be more than enough to score 6+ points.
Considering this is the second game of a double-round week, I wouldn't be surprised if Izundu gets a few extra minutes.
Izundu has cleared this line in 2/6 EuroLeague games so far, while scoring 4+ points in 5/6 games.
Opposing centers against Bayern in the EuroLeague this season: Nebo 12 & Balcerowski 9, Kabengele 24, Zizic 13, Fernando 10, Klintman 15, Jekiri 17, Bingham 12 & Sanli 10, Oturu 20.
Jessup:
I believe this is the third or fourth time we're taking Jessup UNDER this season, whether it's rebounds or points. So far, we're sitting at a perfect 100% hit rate, and I sincerely hope we can keep that winning streak alive tonight.
I genuinely believe this line is set way too high, considering Jessup has cleared it in just 3/8 of his last EuroLeague games.
If we look at his performances during double-round weeks, we'll notice an almost identical pattern in his playing time. Whenever Jessup plays 16+ minutes in one game, he tends to play fewer than 12 minutes in the other game of the double-round week.
With that kind of playing time, he's definitely much closer to the UNDER than the OVER.
Here are the examples: Efes – Besiktas (4' – 22'), Fenerbahce – Partizan (12' – 20'). Jessup played 19 minutes two days ago, and based on these previous patterns, I believe he'll see fewer than 14 minutes tonight.
Crvena Zvezda currently has the 2nd-best defense in the EuroLeague, playing absolutely outstanding team defense with an excellent DRTG. That should definitely help us neutralize Jessup's scoring production.
Jessup generates most of his points through spot-up opportunities, and I'm hoping Zvezda's defensive system won't allow him to get many of those looks tonight.
Wallace:
Based on what Wallace has shown so far in the EuroLeague, he definitely hasn't lived up to the expectations that came with being one of Maccabi's biggest offseason acquisitions. I'm genuinely hoping tonight's matchup could be a turning point in his EuroLeague career.
Maccabi will be dealing with some serious backcourt rotation issues tonight. Alongside the long-term absence of Iffe Lundberg, they will also be without DiBartolomeo, leaving them with just THREE available guards — Clark, Madar, and Wallace.
Due to this extremely limited rotation, I fully expect Keaton to play around 20–25 minutes, which should be more than enough for him to clear this line relatively comfortably, especially considering tonight's matchup.
Paris has one of the WORST defenses in the EuroLeague, particularly against opposing guards. On top of that, they play at an extremely fast pace, generating a ton of possessions, which should further increase the value of our bet tonight.
If we look at opposing guards against Paris this season, we'll find the following numbers: Wright 12, TJ Shorts 25 & Brooks 22, Butler 13, Moore 14 & Carr 11, Waters 19 & Mills 21 & Besson 16, Edwards 19, Carlik 20 & Vildoza 16, Francisco 18 — all of them cleared their respective lines.
I fully expect Wallace to play around 20–24 minutes and attempt at least 6–8 FGA. With that kind of playing time, Paris' poor perimeter defense, and the extremely fast pace, I definitely believe there's more than enough room for him to score 6+ points tonight.
Madar:
Pretty much EVERYTHING I wrote in Wallace's analysis applies here as well.
Maccabi will have major problems with their backcourt rotation tonight, so I fully expect both Madar and Clark to play close to 30 minutes.
Madar is the player who orchestrates Maccabi's offense, and against an opponent like Paris, I believe Yam could reach this number relatively comfortably.
Paris allows a tremendous amount of assists to opposing ball-handlers, partly because they play at an insanely fast pace, but also because playing defense seems like a completely foreign concept to them.
If we look at opposing ball-handlers against Paris this season, we'll find the following numbers: Wright 6, TJ Shorts 9 & Cardenes 5, Chris Jones 7 & Butler 5, Carr 6 & Bello 4, Mills 4, Pajola 5 & Carlik 5, Francisco 4 — all of them cleared their respective lines.
Madar has cleared this line in 3/8 games so far, while recording 4+ assists in 6/8 games.
With Maccabi missing several perimeter players tonight, I fully expect Madar to be the primary offensive facilitator and orchestrate their offense throughout the game.
There we go - we have our 1st winner of the night! ✅
The former Hawks player, Keaton Wallace cashed us at the midway of the 2Q! 🔥
1u K.Wallace (Maccabi) 6+ points ✅ 1.90
Who tailed this? 👀
Give me 50+ L/RT here - and I'll drop 4 more EUROPEAN PLAYS!
1u J.Jessup (Bayern) u7.5 [FanDuel] 1.81
1u E.Izundu (Red Star) 5+ points [FanDuel] 2.00
1u K.Wallace (Maccabi) 6+ points [FanDuel] 1.90
1u Y.Madar (Maccabi) 5+ AST. [FanDuel] 1.90
Izundu:
Crvena Zvezda will host Bayern Munich tonight in front of their home crowd, facing a team that has struggled massively to defend big men throughout the entire season — especially centers. Literally every single team Bayern has faced in the EuroLeague so far has managed to exploit this weakness.
Wiley, Theis, and Da Silva are simply incapable of defending anything in the paint. On top of that, Bayern allows a tremendous amount of second-chance points, while their PnR defense is practically NONEXISTENT. Izundu generates almost all of his points through offensive rebounds and opportunities created by his teammates out of the pick-and-roll, making him an absolutely ideal fit for the matchup we're targeting tonight.
Koloko's arrival shouldn't have much of an impact on Izundu's minutes, as he was always projected to be the team's backup center anyway. Therefore, I expect him to get around 15 minutes tonight, which should be more than enough to score 6+ points.
Considering this is the second game of a double-round week, I wouldn't be surprised if Izundu gets a few extra minutes.
Izundu has cleared this line in 2/6 EuroLeague games so far, while scoring 4+ points in 5/6 games.
Opposing centers against Bayern in the EuroLeague this season: Nebo 12 & Balcerowski 9, Kabengele 24, Zizic 13, Fernando 10, Klintman 15, Jekiri 17, Bingham 12 & Sanli 10, Oturu 20.
Jessup:
I believe this is the third or fourth time we're taking Jessup UNDER this season, whether it's rebounds or points. So far, we're sitting at a perfect 100% hit rate, and I sincerely hope we can keep that winning streak alive tonight.
I genuinely believe this line is set way too high, considering Jessup has cleared it in just 3/8 of his last EuroLeague games.
If we look at his performances during double-round weeks, we'll notice an almost identical pattern in his playing time. Whenever Jessup plays 16+ minutes in one game, he tends to play fewer than 12 minutes in the other game of the double-round week.
With that kind of playing time, he's definitely much closer to the UNDER than the OVER.
Here are the examples: Efes – Besiktas (4' – 22'), Fenerbahce – Partizan (12' – 20'). Jessup played 19 minutes two days ago, and based on these previous patterns, I believe he'll see fewer than 14 minutes tonight.
Crvena Zvezda currently has the 2nd-best defense in the EuroLeague, playing absolutely outstanding team defense with an excellent DRTG. That should definitely help us neutralize Jessup's scoring production.
Jessup generates most of his points through spot-up opportunities, and I'm hoping Zvezda's defensive system won't allow him to get many of those looks tonight.
Wallace:
Based on what Wallace has shown so far in the EuroLeague, he definitely hasn't lived up to the expectations that came with being one of Maccabi's biggest offseason acquisitions. I'm genuinely hoping tonight's matchup could be a turning point in his EuroLeague career.
Maccabi will be dealing with some serious backcourt rotation issues tonight. Alongside the long-term absence of Iffe Lundberg, they will also be without DiBartolomeo, leaving them with just THREE available guards — Clark, Madar, and Wallace.
Due to this extremely limited rotation, I fully expect Keaton to play around 20–25 minutes, which should be more than enough for him to clear this line relatively comfortably, especially considering tonight's matchup.
Paris has one of the WORST defenses in the EuroLeague, particularly against opposing guards. On top of that, they play at an extremely fast pace, generating a ton of possessions, which should further increase the value of our bet tonight.
If we look at opposing guards against Paris this season, we'll find the following numbers: Wright 12, TJ Shorts 25 & Brooks 22, Butler 13, Moore 14 & Carr 11, Waters 19 & Mills 21 & Besson 16, Edwards 19, Carlik 20 & Vildoza 16, Francisco 18 — all of them cleared their respective lines.
I fully expect Wallace to play around 20–24 minutes and attempt at least 6–8 FGA. With that kind of playing time, Paris' poor perimeter defense, and the extremely fast pace, I definitely believe there's more than enough room for him to score 6+ points tonight.
Madar:
Pretty much EVERYTHING I wrote in Wallace's analysis applies here as well.
Maccabi will have major problems with their backcourt rotation tonight, so I fully expect both Madar and Clark to play close to 30 minutes.
Madar is the player who orchestrates Maccabi's offense, and against an opponent like Paris, I believe Yam could reach this number relatively comfortably.
Paris allows a tremendous amount of assists to opposing ball-handlers, partly because they play at an insanely fast pace, but also because playing defense seems like a completely foreign concept to them.
If we look at opposing ball-handlers against Paris this season, we'll find the following numbers: Wright 6, TJ Shorts 9 & Cardenes 5, Chris Jones 7 & Butler 5, Carr 6 & Bello 4, Mills 4, Pajola 5 & Carlik 5, Francisco 4 — all of them cleared their respective lines.
Madar has cleared this line in 3/8 games so far, while recording 4+ assists in 6/8 games.
With Maccabi missing several perimeter players tonight, I fully expect Madar to be the primary offensive facilitator and orchestrate their offense throughout the game.
Serbian NBA Capper retweeted
The entire European slate from the VIP Group is in front of you - please, make sure to drop some L/RT/COMMENTS below this post!
1.25U A.Feliz (Real Madrid) u12.5 [MGM] 1.80
1u T.Maledon (Real Madrid) AST. u5.5 [FanDuel] 1.81
1u S.Shields (Fenerbahce) AST. u2.5 [FanDuel] 1.70
1u Real Madrid vs Fenerbahce UNDER 173.5 [FanDuel] 1.87
FELIZ UNDER:
Even though Feliz is having the best season of his career, this line is simply WAY TOO HIGH against Fenerbahce. He's put together several excellent performances against teams from the lower half of the EuroLeague standings — Milano, ASVEL, Maccabi and Baskonia — which has caused his line to increase significantly.
Real Madrid scored 98+ points in all of those games, and I highly doubt they'll get anywhere close to that number tonight. I expect Fenerbahce to do everything possible to slow down the pace, and historically, Feliz has struggled against Jasikevicius' Fenerbahce, scoring just 0, 2, 9 and 2 points in their four previous meetings.
MALEDON UNDER:
Fenerbahce allows the FEWEST team assists in the entire EuroLeague, and I believe this line is simply too high for Maledon.
His performances against ASVEL and Baskonia, where he recorded 6 and 9 assists respectively, have inflated his averages, and I don't see him producing similar numbers against Fenerbahce's defense.
Last season, Maledon recorded just 0 and 4 assists in his two meetings with Fenerbahce. On top of that, Campazzo remains Real Madrid's primary playmaker despite his relatively disappointing start to the season. With all that in mind, I strongly believe Maledon stays UNDER this line tonight.
SHIELDS UNDER:
After recording 8 consecutive UNDERS, Shields finally finished with 3 assists against Valencia in the previous round, and now he's back on the board.
I've been saying for quite some time that with so many ball handlers on Fenerbahce's roster, there's simply NO REASON for Shields to have his assists line set at 2.5.
I still believe this line is too high, and there's not much to add compared to my analysis from a few rounds ago when I explained this exact bet.
Shields has played 13 games this season, going UNDER 2.5 assists in 10/13 games, with only 3 OVERS. Interestingly enough, in ALL THREE games where he went over, he finished with EXACTLY 3 assists.
🤖 Made with AI
Give me 50+ L/RT here - and I'll drop 4 more EUROPEAN PLAYS!
1u J.Jessup (Bayern) u7.5 [FanDuel] 1.81
1u E.Izundu (Red Star) 5+ points [FanDuel] 2.00
1u K.Wallace (Maccabi) 6+ points [FanDuel] 1.90
1u Y.Madar (Maccabi) 5+ AST. [FanDuel] 1.90
Izundu:
Crvena Zvezda will host Bayern Munich tonight in front of their home crowd, facing a team that has struggled massively to defend big men throughout the entire season — especially centers. Literally every single team Bayern has faced in the EuroLeague so far has managed to exploit this weakness.
Wiley, Theis, and Da Silva are simply incapable of defending anything in the paint. On top of that, Bayern allows a tremendous amount of second-chance points, while their PnR defense is practically NONEXISTENT. Izundu generates almost all of his points through offensive rebounds and opportunities created by his teammates out of the pick-and-roll, making him an absolutely ideal fit for the matchup we're targeting tonight.
Koloko's arrival shouldn't have much of an impact on Izundu's minutes, as he was always projected to be the team's backup center anyway. Therefore, I expect him to get around 15 minutes tonight, which should be more than enough to score 6+ points.
Considering this is the second game of a double-round week, I wouldn't be surprised if Izundu gets a few extra minutes.
Izundu has cleared this line in 2/6 EuroLeague games so far, while scoring 4+ points in 5/6 games.
Opposing centers against Bayern in the EuroLeague this season: Nebo 12 & Balcerowski 9, Kabengele 24, Zizic 13, Fernando 10, Klintman 15, Jekiri 17, Bingham 12 & Sanli 10, Oturu 20.
Jessup:
I believe this is the third or fourth time we're taking Jessup UNDER this season, whether it's rebounds or points. So far, we're sitting at a perfect 100% hit rate, and I sincerely hope we can keep that winning streak alive tonight.
I genuinely believe this line is set way too high, considering Jessup has cleared it in just 3/8 of his last EuroLeague games.
If we look at his performances during double-round weeks, we'll notice an almost identical pattern in his playing time. Whenever Jessup plays 16+ minutes in one game, he tends to play fewer than 12 minutes in the other game of the double-round week.
With that kind of playing time, he's definitely much closer to the UNDER than the OVER.
Here are the examples: Efes – Besiktas (4' – 22'), Fenerbahce – Partizan (12' – 20'). Jessup played 19 minutes two days ago, and based on these previous patterns, I believe he'll see fewer than 14 minutes tonight.
Crvena Zvezda currently has the 2nd-best defense in the EuroLeague, playing absolutely outstanding team defense with an excellent DRTG. That should definitely help us neutralize Jessup's scoring production.
Jessup generates most of his points through spot-up opportunities, and I'm hoping Zvezda's defensive system won't allow him to get many of those looks tonight.
Wallace:
Based on what Wallace has shown so far in the EuroLeague, he definitely hasn't lived up to the expectations that came with being one of Maccabi's biggest offseason acquisitions. I'm genuinely hoping tonight's matchup could be a turning point in his EuroLeague career.
Maccabi will be dealing with some serious backcourt rotation issues tonight. Alongside the long-term absence of Iffe Lundberg, they will also be without DiBartolomeo, leaving them with just THREE available guards — Clark, Madar, and Wallace.
Due to this extremely limited rotation, I fully expect Keaton to play around 20–25 minutes, which should be more than enough for him to clear this line relatively comfortably, especially considering tonight's matchup.
Paris has one of the WORST defenses in the EuroLeague, particularly against opposing guards. On top of that, they play at an extremely fast pace, generating a ton of possessions, which should further increase the value of our bet tonight.
If we look at opposing guards against Paris this season, we'll find the following numbers: Wright 12, TJ Shorts 25 & Brooks 22, Butler 13, Moore 14 & Carr 11, Waters 19 & Mills 21 & Besson 16, Edwards 19, Carlik 20 & Vildoza 16, Francisco 18 — all of them cleared their respective lines.
I fully expect Wallace to play around 20–24 minutes and attempt at least 6–8 FGA. With that kind of playing time, Paris' poor perimeter defense, and the extremely fast pace, I definitely believe there's more than enough room for him to score 6+ points tonight.
Madar:
Pretty much EVERYTHING I wrote in Wallace's analysis applies here as well.
Maccabi will have major problems with their backcourt rotation tonight, so I fully expect both Madar and Clark to play close to 30 minutes.
Madar is the player who orchestrates Maccabi's offense, and against an opponent like Paris, I believe Yam could reach this number relatively comfortably.
Paris allows a tremendous amount of assists to opposing ball-handlers, partly because they play at an insanely fast pace, but also because playing defense seems like a completely foreign concept to them.
If we look at opposing ball-handlers against Paris this season, we'll find the following numbers: Wright 6, TJ Shorts 9 & Cardenes 5, Chris Jones 7 & Butler 5, Carr 6 & Bello 4, Mills 4, Pajola 5 & Carlik 5, Francisco 4 — all of them cleared their respective lines.
Madar has cleared this line in 3/8 games so far, while recording 4+ assists in 6/8 games.
With Maccabi missing several perimeter players tonight, I fully expect Madar to be the primary offensive facilitator and orchestrate their offense throughout the game.
The entire European slate from the VIP Group is in front of you - please, make sure to drop some L/RT/COMMENTS below this post!
1.25U A.Feliz (Real Madrid) u12.5 [MGM] 1.80
1u T.Maledon (Real Madrid) AST. u5.5 [FanDuel] 1.81
1u S.Shields (Fenerbahce) AST. u2.5 [FanDuel] 1.70
1u Real Madrid vs Fenerbahce UNDER 173.5 [FanDuel] 1.87
FELIZ UNDER:
Even though Feliz is having the best season of his career, this line is simply WAY TOO HIGH against Fenerbahce. He's put together several excellent performances against teams from the lower half of the EuroLeague standings — Milano, ASVEL, Maccabi and Baskonia — which has caused his line to increase significantly.
Real Madrid scored 98+ points in all of those games, and I highly doubt they'll get anywhere close to that number tonight. I expect Fenerbahce to do everything possible to slow down the pace, and historically, Feliz has struggled against Jasikevicius' Fenerbahce, scoring just 0, 2, 9 and 2 points in their four previous meetings.
MALEDON UNDER:
Fenerbahce allows the FEWEST team assists in the entire EuroLeague, and I believe this line is simply too high for Maledon.
His performances against ASVEL and Baskonia, where he recorded 6 and 9 assists respectively, have inflated his averages, and I don't see him producing similar numbers against Fenerbahce's defense.
Last season, Maledon recorded just 0 and 4 assists in his two meetings with Fenerbahce. On top of that, Campazzo remains Real Madrid's primary playmaker despite his relatively disappointing start to the season. With all that in mind, I strongly believe Maledon stays UNDER this line tonight.
SHIELDS UNDER:
After recording 8 consecutive UNDERS, Shields finally finished with 3 assists against Valencia in the previous round, and now he's back on the board.
I've been saying for quite some time that with so many ball handlers on Fenerbahce's roster, there's simply NO REASON for Shields to have his assists line set at 2.5.
I still believe this line is too high, and there's not much to add compared to my analysis from a few rounds ago when I explained this exact bet.
Shields has played 13 games this season, going UNDER 2.5 assists in 10/13 games, with only 3 OVERS. Interestingly enough, in ALL THREE games where he went over, he finished with EXACTLY 3 assists.
🤖 Made with AI
Give me 50+ L/RT here - and I'll drop 4 more EUROPEAN PLAYS!
1u J.Jessup (Bayern) u7.5 [FanDuel] 1.81
1u E.Izundu (Red Star) 5+ points [FanDuel] 2.00
1u K.Wallace (Maccabi) 6+ points [FanDuel] 1.90
1u Y.Madar (Maccabi) 5+ AST. [FanDuel] 1.90
Izundu:
Crvena Zvezda will host Bayern Munich tonight in front of their home crowd, facing a team that has struggled massively to defend big men throughout the entire season — especially centers. Literally every single team Bayern has faced in the EuroLeague so far has managed to exploit this weakness.
Wiley, Theis, and Da Silva are simply incapable of defending anything in the paint. On top of that, Bayern allows a tremendous amount of second-chance points, while their PnR defense is practically NONEXISTENT. Izundu generates almost all of his points through offensive rebounds and opportunities created by his teammates out of the pick-and-roll, making him an absolutely ideal fit for the matchup we're targeting tonight.
Koloko's arrival shouldn't have much of an impact on Izundu's minutes, as he was always projected to be the team's backup center anyway. Therefore, I expect him to get around 15 minutes tonight, which should be more than enough to score 6+ points.
Considering this is the second game of a double-round week, I wouldn't be surprised if Izundu gets a few extra minutes.
Izundu has cleared this line in 2/6 EuroLeague games so far, while scoring 4+ points in 5/6 games.
Opposing centers against Bayern in the EuroLeague this season: Nebo 12 & Balcerowski 9, Kabengele 24, Zizic 13, Fernando 10, Klintman 15, Jekiri 17, Bingham 12 & Sanli 10, Oturu 20.
Jessup:
I believe this is the third or fourth time we're taking Jessup UNDER this season, whether it's rebounds or points. So far, we're sitting at a perfect 100% hit rate, and I sincerely hope we can keep that winning streak alive tonight.
I genuinely believe this line is set way too high, considering Jessup has cleared it in just 3/8 of his last EuroLeague games.
If we look at his performances during double-round weeks, we'll notice an almost identical pattern in his playing time. Whenever Jessup plays 16+ minutes in one game, he tends to play fewer than 12 minutes in the other game of the double-round week.
With that kind of playing time, he's definitely much closer to the UNDER than the OVER.
Here are the examples: Efes – Besiktas (4' – 22'), Fenerbahce – Partizan (12' – 20'). Jessup played 19 minutes two days ago, and based on these previous patterns, I believe he'll see fewer than 14 minutes tonight.
Crvena Zvezda currently has the 2nd-best defense in the EuroLeague, playing absolutely outstanding team defense with an excellent DRTG. That should definitely help us neutralize Jessup's scoring production.
Jessup generates most of his points through spot-up opportunities, and I'm hoping Zvezda's defensive system won't allow him to get many of those looks tonight.
Wallace:
Based on what Wallace has shown so far in the EuroLeague, he definitely hasn't lived up to the expectations that came with being one of Maccabi's biggest offseason acquisitions. I'm genuinely hoping tonight's matchup could be a turning point in his EuroLeague career.
Maccabi will be dealing with some serious backcourt rotation issues tonight. Alongside the long-term absence of Iffe Lundberg, they will also be without DiBartolomeo, leaving them with just THREE available guards — Clark, Madar, and Wallace.
Due to this extremely limited rotation, I fully expect Keaton to play around 20–25 minutes, which should be more than enough for him to clear this line relatively comfortably, especially considering tonight's matchup.
Paris has one of the WORST defenses in the EuroLeague, particularly against opposing guards. On top of that, they play at an extremely fast pace, generating a ton of possessions, which should further increase the value of our bet tonight.
If we look at opposing guards against Paris this season, we'll find the following numbers: Wright 12, TJ Shorts 25 & Brooks 22, Butler 13, Moore 14 & Carr 11, Waters 19 & Mills 21 & Besson 16, Edwards 19, Carlik 20 & Vildoza 16, Francisco 18 — all of them cleared their respective lines.
I fully expect Wallace to play around 20–24 minutes and attempt at least 6–8 FGA. With that kind of playing time, Paris' poor perimeter defense, and the extremely fast pace, I definitely believe there's more than enough room for him to score 6+ points tonight.
Madar:
Pretty much EVERYTHING I wrote in Wallace's analysis applies here as well.
Maccabi will have major problems with their backcourt rotation tonight, so I fully expect both Madar and Clark to play close to 30 minutes.
Madar is the player who orchestrates Maccabi's offense, and against an opponent like Paris, I believe Yam could reach this number relatively comfortably.
Paris allows a tremendous amount of assists to opposing ball-handlers, partly because they play at an insanely fast pace, but also because playing defense seems like a completely foreign concept to them.
If we look at opposing ball-handlers against Paris this season, we'll find the following numbers: Wright 6, TJ Shorts 9 & Cardenes 5, Chris Jones 7 & Butler 5, Carr 6 & Bello 4, Mills 4, Pajola 5 & Carlik 5, Francisco 4 — all of them cleared their respective lines.
Madar has cleared this line in 3/8 games so far, while recording 4+ assists in 6/8 games.
With Maccabi missing several perimeter players tonight, I fully expect Madar to be the primary offensive facilitator and orchestrate their offense throughout the game.
Give me 50+ L/RT here - and I'll drop 4 more EUROPEAN PLAYS!
1u J.Jessup (Bayern) u7.5 [FanDuel] 1.81
1u E.Izundu (Red Star) 5+ points [FanDuel] 2.00
1u K.Wallace (Maccabi) 6+ points [FanDuel] 1.90
1u Y.Madar (Maccabi) 5+ AST. [FanDuel] 1.90
Izundu:
Crvena Zvezda will host Bayern Munich tonight in front of their home crowd, facing a team that has struggled massively to defend big men throughout the entire season — especially centers. Literally every single team Bayern has faced in the EuroLeague so far has managed to exploit this weakness.
Wiley, Theis, and Da Silva are simply incapable of defending anything in the paint. On top of that, Bayern allows a tremendous amount of second-chance points, while their PnR defense is practically NONEXISTENT. Izundu generates almost all of his points through offensive rebounds and opportunities created by his teammates out of the pick-and-roll, making him an absolutely ideal fit for the matchup we're targeting tonight.
Koloko's arrival shouldn't have much of an impact on Izundu's minutes, as he was always projected to be the team's backup center anyway. Therefore, I expect him to get around 15 minutes tonight, which should be more than enough to score 6+ points.
Considering this is the second game of a double-round week, I wouldn't be surprised if Izundu gets a few extra minutes.
Izundu has cleared this line in 2/6 EuroLeague games so far, while scoring 4+ points in 5/6 games.
Opposing centers against Bayern in the EuroLeague this season: Nebo 12 & Balcerowski 9, Kabengele 24, Zizic 13, Fernando 10, Klintman 15, Jekiri 17, Bingham 12 & Sanli 10, Oturu 20.
Jessup:
I believe this is the third or fourth time we're taking Jessup UNDER this season, whether it's rebounds or points. So far, we're sitting at a perfect 100% hit rate, and I sincerely hope we can keep that winning streak alive tonight.
I genuinely believe this line is set way too high, considering Jessup has cleared it in just 3/8 of his last EuroLeague games.
If we look at his performances during double-round weeks, we'll notice an almost identical pattern in his playing time. Whenever Jessup plays 16+ minutes in one game, he tends to play fewer than 12 minutes in the other game of the double-round week.
With that kind of playing time, he's definitely much closer to the UNDER than the OVER.
Here are the examples: Efes – Besiktas (4' – 22'), Fenerbahce – Partizan (12' – 20'). Jessup played 19 minutes two days ago, and based on these previous patterns, I believe he'll see fewer than 14 minutes tonight.
Crvena Zvezda currently has the 2nd-best defense in the EuroLeague, playing absolutely outstanding team defense with an excellent DRTG. That should definitely help us neutralize Jessup's scoring production.
Jessup generates most of his points through spot-up opportunities, and I'm hoping Zvezda's defensive system won't allow him to get many of those looks tonight.
Wallace:
Based on what Wallace has shown so far in the EuroLeague, he definitely hasn't lived up to the expectations that came with being one of Maccabi's biggest offseason acquisitions. I'm genuinely hoping tonight's matchup could be a turning point in his EuroLeague career.
Maccabi will be dealing with some serious backcourt rotation issues tonight. Alongside the long-term absence of Iffe Lundberg, they will also be without DiBartolomeo, leaving them with just THREE available guards — Clark, Madar, and Wallace.
Due to this extremely limited rotation, I fully expect Keaton to play around 20–25 minutes, which should be more than enough for him to clear this line relatively comfortably, especially considering tonight's matchup.
Paris has one of the WORST defenses in the EuroLeague, particularly against opposing guards. On top of that, they play at an extremely fast pace, generating a ton of possessions, which should further increase the value of our bet tonight.
If we look at opposing guards against Paris this season, we'll find the following numbers: Wright 12, TJ Shorts 25 & Brooks 22, Butler 13, Moore 14 & Carr 11, Waters 19 & Mills 21 & Besson 16, Edwards 19, Carlik 20 & Vildoza 16, Francisco 18 — all of them cleared their respective lines.
I fully expect Wallace to play around 20–24 minutes and attempt at least 6–8 FGA. With that kind of playing time, Paris' poor perimeter defense, and the extremely fast pace, I definitely believe there's more than enough room for him to score 6+ points tonight.
Madar:
Pretty much EVERYTHING I wrote in Wallace's analysis applies here as well.
Maccabi will have major problems with their backcourt rotation tonight, so I fully expect both Madar and Clark to play close to 30 minutes.
Madar is the player who orchestrates Maccabi's offense, and against an opponent like Paris, I believe Yam could reach this number relatively comfortably.
Paris allows a tremendous amount of assists to opposing ball-handlers, partly because they play at an insanely fast pace, but also because playing defense seems like a completely foreign concept to them.
If we look at opposing ball-handlers against Paris this season, we'll find the following numbers: Wright 6, TJ Shorts 9 & Cardenes 5, Chris Jones 7 & Butler 5, Carr 6 & Bello 4, Mills 4, Pajola 5 & Carlik 5, Francisco 4 — all of them cleared their respective lines.
Madar has cleared this line in 3/8 games so far, while recording 4+ assists in 6/8 games.
With Maccabi missing several perimeter players tonight, I fully expect Madar to be the primary offensive facilitator and orchestrate their offense throughout the game.
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1u A.Diarra (Virtus) u10.5 [FanDuel] 1.85
1u A.Tubelis (Zaligirs) to score 11+ points [FanDuel] 2.02
Diarra – UNDER
After playing 20+ minutes in each of the first three games of the season, Diarra has been consistently limited to 16–18 minutes over his last 8 games across all competitions.
Virtus has plenty of options at the center position. Besides Diarra, they also have Diouf and Cokila, who could get an opportunity during this double-game week, while Bobi Klintman can also play the 5 in smaller lineups.
Diarra is also quite prone to getting into foul trouble, and I wouldn't be surprised if that happens again today against Valanciunas.
Zalgiris has been excellent defensively against centers, with Valanciunas playing deep drop coverage in PnR situations and protecting the paint extremely well.
Looking at recent games against Zalgiris, opposing centers have struggled significantly: Bolomboy and Massa scored 4 points each, Jones and Fernando had 8 and 6, Sanli and Bingham finished with 6 and 5, while Nebo and Balcerowski combined for just 11 points.
I believe this line is simply too high for Diarra.
Tubelis – OVER
Tubelis' line has dropped following a few difficult matchups in which he struggled offensively, particularly against Fenerbahce and Barcelona on the road.
He was rested over the weekend ahead of this double-game week, and I definitely believe he has plenty to offer in this matchup.
Virtus ranks among the worst defensive teams in the entire league against power forwards. Just look at what opposing players have done against them: LeDay scored 22, Sedekerskis 11, Burnell 16, Onyema 20, and Wiltjer 20 points in Lega A.
I strongly believe Tubelis has more than enough offensive ability to clear this line, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if he delivers a 20+ point performance tonight.
