Collective Shift

Everyone wants to get a 100x. But chasing that is risky so people put in such small amounts as they know they are more likely to lose money. Why not, instead of going the hero trade, go in heavy with significant size on something that can double or triple? Lower reward sure, but lower risk, and the size of the position can easily make up for that. Investing with high sized high conviction bets wins out. Or keep gambling and try to be the hero, up to you.

It’s easy to get stuck in FOMO right now while also wondering whether you’ve missed the move or prices are about to head lower. I prefer to look at where the real bet lies. We’re 10 months into a bear market, and historically they’ve lasted around 12 months. If the bottom is already in, we’re at the start of a multi-year bull market. If it isn’t, we may have another month or two of downside, followed by a few months of recovery before that bull market begins. To me, that’s an asymmetric bet: potentially enduring a little more short-term pain for exposure to a multi-year upward trend. That’s why I think now is a good time to be bullish. To put it simply. The image shows scenario 1 and scenario 2. You need to squint to see the difference.

Solana just broke through $100. I remember buying SOL under $20 in 2023, then taking some profit when it hit $100, a 5x from my entry, in December 2023. I felt horrible doing it. It felt far too early in the cycle and like there was obviously so much more upside ahead. And there was. It kept running. But it also pulled back to around $80 first, making that sell feel smart for a moment before it continued much higher. That is the reality of crypto. You are not going to hero-sell the exact top. The real win is backing good projects over a long period, having rules, and consistently taking some chips off the table as the market moves in your favour.

Question I get asked alot is "Should I sell XYZ Coin." Don't think of it like that. Think of it in terms of where do I think is the best place to allocate my money. The market does not care about what you hold whether you are in gain or loss. Only you care about that. Look at the market now. Where would you like to allocate money if you had it now. If the answer is not XYZ, where is it?

SEC going out on its own to create Clarity Act style rules. Now the CFTC doing the same. Then Trump is sitting there with the biggest crypto CEOs talking about buying Bitcoin and bringing platforms like Hyperliquid into America through regulation. I think we might be seeing the start of the Trump pump 2.0.

The Billionaire revenue club is small. Read on to find out the few crypto projects that have achieved this. solana:CARDSccUMFKoPRZxt5vt3ksUbxEFEcnZ3H2pd3dKxYjp

Would I Buy It Today? $LIT is undoubtedly an interesting beta play to $HYPE. Ethereum’s perps platform, supposedly first across the line with regulators, add in the Robinhood partnership and potential exposure to that user base and there is a lot that could go right. The bit I don’t love is revenue. It has basically gone sideways rather than growing. But that also means a lot of the upside isn’t in the numbers yet. If even some of the speculation above comes to fruition, that could change quickly. For me this is a good speculative bet. I see relatively limited downside from here compared with the upside if they actually get regualtion across the line.

I think crypto has three completely different investment classes. Bitcoin is Bitcoin. If you don't understand why its different to other digital assets, you have some work to do. Then there are tech startups. These are protocols and applications trying to build something people actually use. They should be judged like early-stage businesses: Is there a working product? Are users growing? Is it generating revenue? Does the token capture any of that value? Most don’t. Then there is gambling. Memecoins, short-term narratives, influencer coins and whatever is pumping today. There is nothing inherently wrong with playing that game, but call it what it is. You’re betting on attention, liquidity and finding someone willing to pay more. The biggest mistake people make is pretending all three are the same investment. They buy a gamble and defend it like Bitcoin. They buy a startup token without checking whether the token benefits from the business. Or they dismiss Bitcoin because they don't understand the value thesis. Crypto makes far more sense once you stop putting everything in the same bucket.

When Bitcoins trading sideways I like to look at what is showing strength. $LIT & $PUMP both doing significantly better than Bitcoin since June. My thesis is simple Outperformance now means Outperformance in the future.