Simeon Vanov

#EURUSD broke 1.12220 before New York, then closed back above it. That makes the earlier break a poor reason on its own to expect more downside. At 13:00 UTC on 5 November, I'm watching 1.12127 to 1.12142. A fresh break below 1.12127 would need to hold through a retest before I'd trust it. A close back above 1.12142 would weaken that view. If price instead closes above 1.12350 on the 15-minute chart, the morning decline may be giving way to a recovery. US jobs data and Lagarde's speech could make the first move unreliable. This is my market view, not investment advice.

#SP500 recovered from its overnight break, but 7718.19 still caps the move. At 13:00 UTC on 5 November, I see a daily rebound testing resistance within a weekly correction, so I would wait for a pullback to hold 7684.94 to 7693.40 after the New York open before treating another test of 7718.19 as meaningful. A close back below 7684.94 would weaken that view. Jobless claims and the cash open could make the first move unreliable. This is my market view, not investment advice.

#EURUSD rejected the overnight push into weekly resistance before the 5 November London open. That puts 1.12580 back in focus: I would wait for a fresh recovery there to fail before treating the drop as a bearish setup. The earlier fall reached 1.12405, but 1.12392 support has not failed, so a wider move down is still unconfirmed. A five-minute close above 1.12663 would cancel that bearish view. This is my market view, not investment advice.

#XAUUSD pulled back to 4108.75 after reaching 4146.83 overnight. At the 5 November London open, 4108.75 to 4112.07 is the support test. A five-minute close above 4112.07, followed by a retest that also closes above it, would support a recovery toward the first opposition at 4122.33 to 4124.17. A close below 4108.75 after confirmation would weaken that view. This is my analysis, not investment advice.

You Missed the Retest. Is There Still a Trade? A breakout can look more convincing just as the entry gets harder to justify. When price comes back to former resistance and buyers lift it again, there's a reason to consider that level as support. If the recovery fails, the buying idea weakens. That reference still matters after price runs higher. The rally alone doesn't give a later buyer a closer place where the idea fails. In this constructed example, an entry at 111 had 3R of planned reward to the previous high at 120, with a stop at 108. By the pause at 116, the same stop leaves eight points at risk for four points of potential reward: 0.5R before costs. More of the move has happened, so less room remains to that target. The plan requires at least 2R, so the answer at the pause is WAIT. Price could still reach 120. Waiting follows the entry rule; it says nothing about what price does next. Moving the stop closer just to make the ratio fit would need new chart evidence, and this example hasn't supplied it. Missing the earlier entry changes the decision in front of you. A fresh setup would have to justify its own risk and reward. What would need to change before you buy?

#EURUSD held 1.12220 after yesterday's rejection from 1.12726, then rose through 1.12321 before the Asia open. That improves the short-term tone, but I still want to see the recovery hold above 1.12392 before treating it as stronger than a bounce inside the weekly downtrend. For the 5 November Asia session, a fresh move above 1.12392 that holds on a pullback would put 1.12470 in view. A break back below 1.12220 would end my mild bullish lean and bring 1.12127 to 1.12142 into focus. This is my market view, not investment advice.

In the November 4 New York session, #XAUUSD held the 4033.49 to 4035.73 pullback area and reached 4046.06, then 4051.38. Only afterward did it close below 4031.62. That break failed to produce the required retest and second close below the level; gold recovered and finished at 4060.16. The bullish price path held, although the session became a downside trap rather than the expected pause. This is market analysis, not investment advice.

On November 4, #SP500 retested 7659.44 to 7663.56 after two five-minute closes above 7663.56. The retest held, and the next candle reached 7680.06, inside the prepared target zone. The breakout path played out, while the preferred deeper pullback to 7603.88 to 7610.13 never came. Price closed the New York phase at 7706.39. A close back below 7663.56 would weaken that repair. This is market analysis, not investment advice.

#SP500 held above 7563.00 after London opened on 4 November and kept climbing without the pullback I had waited for. My recovery view held up, but my whipsaw call was wrong. Price reached 7659.44, then pulled back to close the London window at 7623.44. That close below 7632.83 tempers the recovery, even though the session's upward move remains intact. The move through my early targets came before the planned retest, so I cannot count it as a confirmed setup. This is my market view, not investment advice.

#SP500's rebound has already crossed back above the former weekly floor, but the latest hourly close slipped below 7632.83. For New York on November 4, I want to see whether a pullback holds 7603.88 to 7610.13 after the scheduled releases. A hold would keep the recovery alive; a close below 7594.49 would weaken that view. The move up to 7659.44 happened before this preparation, so I would not chase it into 7663.56 resistance. This is my market view, not investment advice.

#EURUSD reached 1.12701 before New York, right where the broader downtrend faces resistance. At the 13:00 UTC close on 4 November, I want to see whether the recovery can hold above that area after the US releases. The earlier rally is context, not a fresh signal. I would wait for a break above 1.12701 that holds on a retest of 1.12691 to 1.12701. An hourly close below 1.12510 would weaken my upside view. This is my market view, not investment advice.