Sina Moghaddami

HAPPY HALLOWEEN Oct 31st, 2026 Read the full Update, Zoomable Images Here 👉: alphaweatheranalysis.com/new… Stay safe and have a wonderful fun day! Stay tuned for more updates. As a reminder, please read the article as it will answer your question. NEED MORE? Check out AWA Services breaking everything down even further. This system drove many crazy... @ZoneWatch customers, nothing wrong just the rainfall totals shifted like a woman trying to decide what to dress for his man...

Folks, please take lightning seriously. It is extremely concerning to hear that four adults were reportedly injured by a lightning strike near Maricopa Elementary School in El Mirage, Arizona. Thankfully, based on the latest information, no serious injuries have been reported. However, this serves as an important reminder that lightning is an extremely dangerous and potentially deadly threat. Thunderstorms do not need to be classified as severe to put your life in danger. Even an ordinary thunderstorm can produce deadly lightning strikes, sometimes miles away from the heaviest rainfall. The coverage continues and more updates are coming up...

Good Morning, Thursday October 29th, 2026 at approximately 7:51 AM PT. Discussion: A strengthening Pacific trough and powerful subtropical jet stream will pull moisture into Arizona tonight, bringing thunderstorms on Friday, including a few that could become strong to severe. Localized rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches, flash flooding, damaging winds, and large hail will be possible, especially around Phoenix, the Mogollon Rim foothills, and portions of southeastern Arizona. Showers will also spread into northwestern Arizona and parts of southern Nevada on Friday, while southern Utah could face a flash flooding risk if the disturbance tracks far enough west. Arizona should experience a relative break on Saturday before rain returns late that night. Rain becomes more likely across Southern California Saturday afternoon and night, potentially affecting Halloween activities, although the exact timing and rainfall amounts around Los Angeles still need to be determined. Overall, the heaviest precipitation is expected to focus across Arizona, with a more detailed update coming as the forecast becomes clearer. However, the positioning of this system could significantly increase the thunderstorm risk across Southern California, including a few potentially strong storms. While widespread rainfall totals may be lower than in Arizona, thunderstorms across Southern California could produce locally higher amounts than models indicate, along with additional impacts from lightning, gusty winds, and intense downpours. Meanwhile, unusually high tides will continue threatening vulnerable California shorelines today and Friday, with significant coastal flooding possible around San Diego and Orange County late this morning. Moderate coastal flooding is also possible along portions of the Bay Area through Saturday. Across the Pacific Northwest, showers and light mountain snow will continue through Friday, with limited additional accumulation expected. Isolated thunderstorms remain possible across western Oregon today, while frost could affect sensitive plants in interior valleys Saturday morning. Stay tuned for more updates. A full article is coming soon, along with another update or two exclusively for AWA Insiders. For our @ZoneWatchWX users, be sure to take advantage of the latest features, including highly accurate Smart Storm Tracks powered by machine learning and artificial intelligence, along with advanced storm contours that help identify potential hail, storm rotation, tornado signatures, and damaging winds. And what's next? SNOW For all the skiing and snowboarding enthusiasts out there, we have something special coming your way. Stay tuned.

Good Morning, Wednesday October 28th, 2026 at approximately 7:55am PT. Discussion: A Pacific low moving slowly along the coast keeps the Northwest cool and unsettled through Friday, while tropical moisture starts moving into the Southwest late Thursday and Friday. Western Washington sees repeated showers and isolated afternoon thunderstorms today, with snow levels around 3,000 to 3,500 feet and up to 6 additional inches near Mount Rainier, while several inches of snow and brief heavier bursts keep Stevens Pass and Washington Pass hazardous through this afternoon. Showers continue across western Oregon through Thursday as snow levels drop toward 3,000 to 4,000 feet, potentially making roads slippery around Santiam Pass, Willamette Pass and Government Camp. Arizona remains mostly dry through Thursday before widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms arrive Friday, with heavier downpours potentially causing minor flooding, especially across south central and southeastern Arizona; an AWA Insiders update breaking this down follows shortly. Moisture could begin reaching northwestern Arizona, southern Nevada and eastern California Thursday night, while unusually high tides near record levels continue bringing coastal flooding to vulnerable Southern California, Bay Area and Central Coast shorelines. Multiple updates expected today, we heard you guys loud and clear! I was mainly looking for more short term consistency in the pattern before providing an update. From a professional standpoint, I wanted to avoid constantly shifting the forecast back and forth, especially regarding potential impacts, until there was greater confidence in how the pattern would evolve. Stay tuned for further updates.

This is a classic eastern Pacific Super El Niño pattern, with tremendous tropical Pacific heat and energy influencing the jet stream. In terms of the El Niño setup, NOT precipitation totals, we're seeing characteristics that could rival or even exceed 1997 in some respects. Our storm season has also started earlier. What's the result? A split jet stream, essentially two atmospheric belts steering Pacific storms, with the subtropical jet extending directly across Southern California and even into Baja California. Strong tropical convection, potential atmospheric rivers, and an increased risk of severe weather make this setup even more interesting. My advice? Keep outdoor plans flexible and prepare if you live in flood prone areas. If significant flooding occurs, you're ready. If it doesn't, at least you were prepared. A detailed article is coming soon, AWA Insiders expect multiple updates on this... REMINDER: A Super El Niño does NOT automatically mean nonstop storms. However, it can significantly influence the overall atmospheric pattern and how Pacific storms develop and move as it already is doing so...Also, that Jet Stream will wiggle like a snake back and forth but it can lock over CA from time to time... Note: These images are for illustrative purposes and do not represent the exact expected pattern. The timeframe is still too far out to determine the precise storm tracks, but they provide a general idea of how the pattern could evolve.

Halloween Through November Pattern: Powerful Pacific Jet Stream, Atmospheric River Potential, Heavy Rain and Thunderstorm Threats Across the West| October 31 – Nov 5th Once again, please read the article for details we know so far. Read the full Update, Zoomable Images Here 👉: alphaweatheranalysis.com/new… Stay tuned for more updates. AWA Insiders breaks this down into micro zone regions as well should you need more info.

Good Afternoon, Sunday October 25th, 2026 at approximately 12:05pm PT. Discussion: A weakening low pressure system moving through the Four Corners will bring isolated showers to northeastern Arizona and eastern Utah today, while a stronger Pacific system pushes into Oregon and Washington, bringing more widespread unsettled weather through Monday. Western Washington and northwestern Oregon will experience moderate to locally heavy rainfall today, with totals ranging from 1 to 1.5 inches along the Washington coast and Olympic Mountains, wind gusts near 35 mph, and widespread wet road conditions. However, significant flooding is not expected. Showers will spread into the Inland Northwest tonight and Monday, with locally heavier downpours possible near the Blue Mountains and Idaho Panhandle, along with light snow above approximately 5,000 to 6,000 feet. Already saturated ground will leave portions of eastern Utah vulnerable to localized flash flooding beneath stronger thunderstorms today. Meanwhile, freezing fog could create slippery conditions on elevated surfaces across northern Arizona early this morning before warmer and drier weather returns to the Southwest on Monday. Northern Nevada will experience light valley rainfall, mountain snow, and wind gusts ranging from 30 to 35 mph on Monday. Meanwhile, most of California will remain dry and seasonably warm, although minor coastal flooding around high tide remains possible along vulnerable Bay Area shorelines. But that is only for now... Halloween is starting to look rather spooky, and Mother Nature may have her own version of scares in store as a potentially more significant storm system takes shape. More details on the evolving setup, timing, and regional impacts will be coming soon. After weeks of working nonstop, I finally took a much needed break to recharge. That means today will be packed with multiple updates from my team and me, including answers to many of your questions about the upcoming Halloween storm system and what it could mean for your area. Stay tuned, as updates will be coming in waves throughout the day.

Good Morning, Friday October 23rd, 2026 at approximately 11:27am PT. Discussion: The Pacific storm begins splitting today, with part of the system moving toward the northern Rockies while a weaker low settles over Southern California and Arizona this weekend. Light showers linger across Southern California through tonight before conditions dry out, followed by localized Santa Ana gusts of 35 to 40 mph in exposed Los Angeles County terrain Saturday, while North Bay mountains could see gusts near 45 mph tonight and vulnerable Bay Area shorelines face minor coastal flooding this weekend. Arizona becomes cooler and quieter today, although northern Arizona waterways may remain elevated after recent rainfall, with isolated showers and thunderstorms returning to higher terrain Saturday and shifting toward eastern Arizona Sunday. High water remains a concern in parts of southern Utah today, while northern Utah terrain above 9,000 feet could receive 1 to 4 inches of snow, and Nevada’s showers gradually end tonight as snow levels drop near 7,000 feet, bringing light accumulation to a few higher passes. Gusts of 35 to 45 mph across portions of central Washington today could stir up dust, cause isolated tree damage and increase fire danger, while frost threatens sensitive plants in western Oregon tonight before rain chances rise across western Oregon and Washington late Saturday into Sunday. A breakdown will be coming sometime today on the upcoming pattern. AWA Insiders you're going to get in-depth details. Stay tuned for more updates.

Things are about to get even more interesting across the West Coast. October has already delivered an impressive series of severe storms, but November could bring an entirely different level of activity. The developing pattern is becoming increasingly interesting, especially with a potential surge of tropical moisture originating near the Hawaiian Islands interacting with a low latitude Pacific low pressure system and a powerful jet stream. From a meteorological standpoint, this combination could become quite significant. A strengthening Pacific jet stream, enhanced upper level divergence, and an increasingly organized moisture plume could work together to produce strong atmospheric lift and support the development of multiple storm systems. Should the subtropical moisture become fully connected with the approaching Pacific trough, the atmosphere could become much more efficient at producing widespread precipitation, with the potential for heavy rainfall, strong winds, significant mountain snowfall, and localized flooding depending on the eventual storm tracks. What's particularly interesting is the potential for this broader atmospheric pattern to become established rather than simply producing one isolated storm. If the alignment between the jet stream, Pacific low pressure systems, and deep moisture transport holds together, we could enter a prolonged period of active and potentially very stormy weather heading into November. There are still important details to resolve, particularly regarding the strength, positioning, and timing of these systems... Stay tuned for further updates.

UPDATE: 11am PT Oct 22, 2026 Strong (earlier severe) thunderstorms continue to impact portions of Los Angeles County, the San Fernando Valley, the San Gabriel Valley and the Inland Empire this morning. Several intense thunderstorm cells, particularly near Sylmar and the northern San Fernando Valley, as well as Azusa, Glendora, San Dimas and surrounding foothill communities, where heavy rainfall and frequent lightning are the primary concerns. Additional thunderstorms are affecting portions of Santa Clarita, Burbank, Downey, Long Beach, Pomona, Rialto, San Bernardino and Riverside, with scattered activity extending into neighboring communities. Some of these stronger cells are capable of producing torrential downpours, localized street flooding, dangerous lightning, gusty winds and potentially small hail. Additional thunderstorm development remains a concern through the day as this active weather pattern continues across Southern California. Stay weather aware, especially if you are traveling across the region. Once the Low Pressure moves out of the region, activity will diminish with time.

SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ROUND 2: Good Morning, Thursday October 22nd, 2026 at approximately 9:55am PT. Discussion: The same potent Pacific low responsible for Wednesday’s severe storms, including a potentially violent tornado, widespread large hail, and damaging winds, is moving across the Southwest and Great Basin today. This will shift the strongest activity eastward before much drier air arrives Friday. Southern California will continue to experience showers and isolated thunderstorms through tonight and into Friday morning, with localized street flooding, debris flows near vulnerable burn scars, damaging wind gusts, and a brief tornado still possible around Los Angeles and Ventura counties. Meanwhile, mountain slopes facing the deserts farther southeast could experience wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph today. Arizona’s greatest severe weather threat shifts from northern Maricopa County this morning into eastern Arizona this afternoon, where rotating thunderstorms could produce hail measuring 1 to 2 inches in diameter, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Additional heavy downpours will increase flash flooding concerns, especially over already saturated ground and within normally dry washes. Heavy rain and thunderstorms will keep southern and central Utah at risk for flash flooding through early Friday, while eastern Nevada could experience severe thunderstorms today before colder air lowers snow levels to between 6,000 and 7,000 feet early Friday. Rain will spread into eastern Washington and northern Idaho this afternoon through early Friday, followed by wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph, blowing dust, and increased fire danger across portions of central Washington. Meanwhile, temperatures dropping near freezing could threaten sensitive plants across western Oregon on Friday and Saturday mornings, while western Washington remains mostly dry. Stay tuned for many more updates as our severe weather coverage continues across the region. Additional alerts, notices, and Insider updates are on the way, including a detailed Halloween forecast breakdown. A comprehensive storm report covering the severe weather, significant impacts, and notable events will also be released once this system moves out of the forecast region.

No offense, but while I do understand that there are significant risk management policies, liability concerns, and technical challenges involved, it really shouldn't take this long in 2026. Technology has advanced far beyond what was possible even a few years ago, and at some point, these lengthy processes start becoming more of a limitation on innovation than anything else. We already have something similar implemented with @ZoneWatchWX through our smart storm tracks, which not only follow storms but also provide information on their direction, speed, and whether they're strengthening, weakening, or remaining steady. Having an alert move along with a storm isn't exactly groundbreaking technology at this point. The real value comes from how accurately and intelligently that information is processed, updated, and communicated to users in real time. I can understand the political side to it... However, not impressed.

UPDATE: 7:15PM MST: An impressive display of intense supercellular thunderstorms continue across central and eastern Arizona this evening, with several powerful cells producing frequent lightning, large hail and damaging winds. Most notably, a well defined hook echo is visible near Forest Lakes, AZ, raising serious concerns for strong storm rotation and the potential for a tornado. The main areas of concern include Payson, Forest Lakes, Heber, Show Low, Pinetop Lakeside and surrounding communities, where storms could produce hail exceeding 1.5 inches, damaging winds over 60 mph and localized flooding. This event is far from over, with additional rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms possible through tonight and into Thursday. Stay weather aware as conditions can deteriorate rapidly, especially near the strongest storm cores. I keep checking that im not looking at IL...No, its AZ.

I think I have enough monitors to track everything I need… An all nighter is likely with this severe weather situation. The severe weather coverage continues.

Wow! What an impressive storm.

SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK CONTINUES...OCT 21-22 We’re far from over with this significant storm system. Thunderstorm activity across Arizona is expected to intensify further this evening, with the risk for additional strong to severe storms continuing through at least Thursday. Multiple rounds of storms remain possible, and even areas that have already experienced severe weather could see additional impacts as the atmosphere remains favorable for storm development. For Central and Southern California, the main event has yet to arrive.The greatest thunderstorm risk is expected to develop this evening and continue through the overnight hours, with some storms potentially becoming severe. Heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, damaging wind gusts, and even an isolated tornado remain possible with the stronger storms. Just because conditions are quiet in your area right now does not mean the threat has passed. Storms can develop and intensify rapidly, especially given the atmospheric conditions in place. Stay safe, remain weather aware, and stay tuned for more updates as this system continues to evolve.

Trust, reputation, and brand recognition become far more important than the underlying data source itself. When everything becomes increasingly easy to replicate, the brands that have established credibility, built loyal communities, and earned the trust of their users are the ones that will ultimately stand out and survive. Technology and data can be copied, features can be replicated, and competitors can offer nearly identical products. However, years of building a reputation, maintaining consistency, and establishing genuine trust cannot simply be recreated overnight. This is where the original players, the OGs who have spent years building their brands, gain a significant competitive advantage. At the end of the day, people don’t just choose a product because of what it offers. They choose it because of who stands behind it and how much they trust that brand. I could even say, the saturation will make it nearly impossible to stand out in the future. Doesn’t matter what you have without a following or trust over years in your brand.