Part time lawyer. I have a large anti-library.
Joined February 2021
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17,000 tons of $EAF electrode demand if this plant comes to fruition
wsj.com/politics/trump-to-un…
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$EAF ‘s bonds have been on a tear since Monterrey closure announcement & approaching levels from February when 2026 contracting prices whiffed.
That is all
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Starting off the day well - critical circumstances finding on China electrodes.
Punishment to US companies who tried to front-run dumping investigation.
public-inspection.federalreg…
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$EAF
My $100M FCF projection for 2027 may be a little low...
Modified pitch prices in China spike 41%. Modified pitch accounts for 20% of electrode raw material costs.
I admit to not know much about this, but if true, domestic graphite electrode production prices in China will climb a few incremental % from this.
openpr.com/news/4636029/modi…
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Friday afternoon aftermarket news - Nilesh Undavia ups stake in Graftech to 8.5%
sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/…
$EAF
FangDa Carbon New Material had their conference call yesterday.
Re graphite electrodes - “raw material prices have increased, affecting the gross profit situation of graphite electrodes”
1 - These costs will be pushed through bc there is no substitutes for electrodes.
2- there will be non-linear electrode price increases in protected markets due to tariff/dumping stacking. $500 increase in China —> $875 in EU —> $1000 in USA
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This bill will be signed into law in next few days - giving Trump power tariff India up to 100% as punishment for purchasing Russian/Iran crude.
More uncertainty to HEG/GI for upcoming US customer negotiations.
cnbc.com/2026/09/16/russia-s…
$EAF
Something to keep an eye on in the graphite electrode space.
Indian exporters benefit from cheap energy - if this Act goes into law, Trump will have free rein to tariff HEG/GI’s electrodes by up to 100%.
There’s not a 0% chance that the EU does something similar. If their companies are at a structural energy disadvantage, why not even the playing field?
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My thoughts on next week’s antidumping (AD) duties against Indian graphite electrode suppliers, after time of reflection. I’m going to leave the Chinese calculation out b/c their CVD rates are already prohibitive.
I am NOT an AD expert by any means, so do not take this as FA!
First, Resonac and Tokai have wanted to pursue AD duties against the Chinese/Indians for a few years now given that they have data on HEG/GI’S input costs, shipping costs, etc. they know what the electrodes should sell for and they filed the case with the belief that prices were being sold below the recreated cost. Graftech $EAF probably would have filed earlier if they had standing.
Given this, my baseline is that HEG/GI have dumped at 15 percent vs normal value of 4400 per ton. That rate held through until Aug 2025, when tariffs on Indian imports went from 25 to 50 percent within a matter of weeks and then held for remainder of 2025.
During those last 5 months, GI/HEG continue sales into the US. Did their customer bear those tariffs, of course not. HEG/GI had to lower their prices or kickback money to match the prevailing electrode prices. Taking 4400 as my 2025 baseline and a 50 percent tariff to overcome, the Indians were selling at 2900 per MT for 5 months. HEG’S cc a the time is carefully worded, but Ravi says that they will ‘absorb that cost’ for duties, and ‘we don’t want to lose a customer.’
So, weighted by month in a year - 7 months at 3825 and 5 months at 2930 vs normal value of 4400/mt gives AD rate of 30 percent.
30% is my estimated AD rate and if that is the case, electrode prices in US next year baseline in high 5’s, low 6’s - adding 47% total duties on top of HEG’s 4000/mt landed price.
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This should add a few more tons to the furnace $EAF
#LatestUpdates European Parliament adopts position on extending CBAM to downstream steel and aluminium products eurometal.net/european-parli…
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The EU’s EAF capacity will grow by 50% in the next 3 years, requiring an additional 50k MT of electrodes @ 70% capacity, while at the same time between CBAM and new quotas, domestic producers have room to raise prices hundreds of €’s.
I get it the EU is more or less a joke, but how can you be bearish EU steel? They’re kicking the Asians and ME producers in the teeth with these trade measures.
For graphite electrodes - Graftech $EAF and Resonac are going to print money the next few years as supply can’t keep up.
$EAF
Needle coke supply crunch is heating up across the Pacific. This will feed into Chinese electrode prices directly, and given China is the low price supplier without trade barriers, electrode prices in protected markets will increase non-linearly. Ex: 100% CVD in USA and Chinese supplier must now supply at $4k/mt - up from -$3k - domestic producers can raise prices $2k/mt and still win tenders.
lnkd.in/p/ehXivQMY
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