SovEcon

Nobody seems to care about fundamentals in the #wheat market anymore - and looking at the charts, I totally get it. But freshly planted Russian winter wheat looks pretty dry to me... Not the greatest setup for the 2027 crop. How big is the problem? Our view: sizov.report/reports/31636/?… #Russia #oatt #sizovreport #agwx

Stocks ($ES) and #grains (#wheat) seem to like the blue wave today. #oatt

So the lowest US #wheat crop in decades leads to low exports...who would have thought

Russia increases #wheat shipments from 2 mmt to 3 mmt/month. That’s an extra 1 mmt of wheat hitting the global market every month. Media reaction: 2 inquiries. Russia starts loading 3K mt of wheat onto one lonely 30K mt vessel in Russia’s Arctic port of Murmansk. A shipment that’s been discussed for months. Media reaction: 20 inquiries. This is how media works. 😉 #oatt

Crude -7%+ today. #Corn closed unchanged. #Wheat slightly higher. Could be worse... Grains don’t look bad. #oatt

Nine red weekly candles. Nine straight weeks with CBOT #wheat closing lower — despite one of the biggest supply shocks in decades. The irony: near the early-September top, after a lengthy meeting with Erdogan, Putin made it pretty clear there would be no “grain deal” anytime soon. Since then, the rhetoric hasn’t softened. Attacks on commercial vessels in the Black Sea have become systematic. Russia and Ukraine are shipping roughly half their normal volumes as a result. And wheat kept falling. We understand pretty well why wheat rallied in Feb–Mar 2022 and why the sell-off started in May 2022. This one may deserve its own research paper one day... The market is badly oversold. But are there any signs of a reversal yet? Our view: sizov.report/reports/31636/?… #blacksea #oatt #sizovreport

FT on Russia’s increasingly weird Black Sea grain logistics, quoting @SovEcon: Farmers in southern Russia normally get the best prices because they’re closest to the Black Sea ports. Now they’re getting less than farmers in other regions with better access to functioning export routes. Overall, a big hit to farmers’ P&L. “Domestic prices collapsed very sharply in August and September,” Sizov told FT. Although they have recovered somewhat, they remain “tens of per cent below production costs.” Many farmers can’t afford to wait for better prices: “You sell your #grain because you have no choice — you need cash to finance winter sowing, repay loans, pay your employees and so on.” #Russia #wheat #blacksea #oatt

CBOT #wheat just closed lower for the 9th week in a row. Meanwhile, Russian October wheat exports are still running at just 2.9 mmt vs 5.4 mmt last year. The Black Sea problem hasn’t exactly disappeared. So how much lower can wheat go - and what could finally turn it? Our take: sizov.report/reports/31636/?… #blacksea #oatt #sizovreport

Looks like US grain is becoming cheap enough to get some buyers’ attention... Last week’s US #wheat sales: 0.85 mmt — the highest since November. Today’s 1.73 mmt #corn flash sale to Mexico is the biggest since November 2022 and ranks #9 among the largest USDA daily corn sales on record. Buyers waking up? #oatt #sizovreport

ICYMI:

Looks like #wheat bulls are losing one of their important narratives. Despite a slow start, Russian winter planting is catching up with last year. As of Oct. 23, farmers had planted 14.9 mln ha of winter grains, just 1% below last year — compared with a 10% lag two weeks earlier. What could this mean for the new crop, and what risks remain? Free note: blog.sizov.report/russian-wi… #oatt #agwx

Russia is reopening #wheat exports from the Azov Sea? Not quite. A few vessels have moved out of the Azov Sea, while others have moved into the Don River for winter lay-up. But that doesn’t mean grain exports have resumed. So what is actually happening there - and could Azov grain shipments restart soon? Our update in the forthcoming market report: sizov.report/?utm_source=twi… #oatt #blacksea #sizovreport

US #wheat export sales jumped more than 3X from last week. 0.85 mmt is the highest weekly number since November. Total commitments are improving but still a tad low compared with the pace needed for USDA’s target — 56% of the target is on the books vs ~65% typically at this point of the season. Let’s see what the next few weeks bring. #oatt #sizovreport

Who broke the #wheat market? Bullish China headline, we spike... And somehow we’re still up. Aren’t we supposed to be 30 cents lower by now? #oatt

#Wheat is selling off on reports that #grain exports from the Azov Sea have resumed. Have they? We’re not so sure. Our take: sizov.report/reports/31631/?… #Russia #blacksea #oatt #sizovreport

Remember those 44K mt of #grain that were supposed to leave Russia’s Arctic port of Murmansk months ago? Well, they haven’t left yet, of course. But there is progress at last: 3.4K mt are now being loaded. At this pace, the grain may reach its destination by 2028. RTRS: Murmansk Commercial Seaport and Demetra Holding say the first 3,400 mt shipment from Russia’s “key agricultural regions” is being loaded onto a vessel. #wheat #Russia #oatt

I should have added that those widely advertised 44K mt have turned into 28K according to RTRS. The main takeaway here - don’t waste your time on Murmansk, the main reserve for Russian #wheat exports is shipments via the Baltic sea. #oatt

CBOT #wheat has dropped to 600. Importers that postponed purchases are now buying substantially cheaper than just a few weeks ago. The Black Sea disruption premium is fully gone. Ukraine hasn’t attacked a merchant vessel near Russian ports since October 6. But actual shipments from the Black Sea remain heavily restricted. Time for a bounce toward 640 — or another leg lower to 575? Our view: sizov.report/?utm_source=twi… #blacksea #oatt #sizovreport

US #wheat export sales jump to ~0.8 mmt. And now BBG says COFCO is asking about US SRW wheat for shipment early next year. Maybe China likes these prices too... If this is true — and that’s a big if — the question is whether COFCO has already bought the matching futures. If not, when? #China #wheat #oatt #sizovreport