Spicy

I made 124% in 2023 For context: I trade breakouts on the 1min timeframe on high volatility altcoins. Here are the biggest mistakes I made that year: 🧵

Trading Framework I follow: 1) come up with an idea 2) collect data on it 3) review the data 4) there's some X% chance the review finds something useful since X is small, the only levers I really have are: • more ideas • better ideas • faster from idea to data so most of my work is just speeding up that loop.

Benefits from Trading that aren't financial: • learning how to think clearly while in a state of uncertainty • creativity and idea generation • learning how to collect and review data • a thicker skin for unlucky situations • reaching out to others in the same field to learn faster

Trading edges decay over time. Which is why it makes sense to increase your "rate of learning" to compensate for this. I wrote an article on it It covers: • what "rate of learning" is • why it is so important • 5 tips you can use to learn faster ↓

how to study your A+ trades ↓

Round-trip fewer trades by manually trailing a stoploss ↓

You can outperform 99% of traders by: - reviewing your previous day's trades - entering trades only when they meet your criteria - making friends with other traders - improving ONE variable of your strategy at a time Mastering the basics is what will set you apart.

Fair Value Gap is just a spot where there weren't many limit orders, so price moved through it quickly and left a "gap" in the orderbook. an Order Block is just a bunch of limit orders clustered in a small area. don't overcomplicate basic orderbook ideas with "smart money" language, they're much easier to trade when you call them what they are.

Most traders don't realize how normal it is to go on a 7x lose streak. Even if you have a 75%+ winrate it is statistically inevitable. (i.e. it is bound to eventually happen) The last thing you should do when getting streaked is abandon your strategy and hop to a new one just let the positive expectancy play out

The Hardest part of using a Trading Journal Actually logging blatantly stupid mistakes and then facing the embarrassment of re-living the error when doing a review.

Imagine sitting down for lunch with a Crypto Bro. You try to hold a conversation with them but they keep interrupting it by checking their phone every 2 seconds. They justify obsessively staring at the same candlestick chart by having some idea that this is what "commitment" looks like. In reality this is a waste of time to do. It's unlikely that any meaningful, high quality decisions are going to be made while out at lunch with someone with attention distracted by so many external factors. You really don't need to be monitoring price action constantly. You don't need to be in every trade. You don't need to know about every single price movement. When it's work time, go all-in on work and don't let anything else distract you. But when you're not working, then focus on whatever the thing in front of you is

Dummy Trades are underrated a dummy trade is a real trade taken with the minimum position size the exchange allows (e.g. $0.01). it speeds up collecting data and learning, without the fake psychology of paper trading.

the 3 main variables I look at when measuring the market conditions ↓

Improving a trading system: 1) accept imperfection • early versions of anything will suck • improvement comes from iterations, not ideal planning 2) review regularly • performance has to be tracked to be reviewed • regular reviews are where the +1% improvements show up 3) collect useful data • more variables make flaws easier to spot, too much becomes noise • find the balance between collecting, reviewing and executing by overdoing each one, then dialing it back 4) good vs bad inputs • some logical changes will fail • you need a process to tell if a change actually worked • changing things without feedback is just gambling

The journey of a Trader: 1. no strategy 2. has a strategy, inconsistent execution 3. has a strategy, consistent, not profitable 4. has a strategy, consistently profitable most of the wasted time comes from trying to rush through stages 2 and 3.

How good your Trading Strategy is comes down to a small set of numbers: • frequency (how many trades per month) • size of avg. win • size of avg. loss • avg. win/loss ratio (better than avg. R:R since it includes fees) • winrate % (over a meaningful sample, 30 is the absolute bare minimum)

Volume Filters: I need a coin to be doing at least $100k/1min of volume on binance perps in order for it to actually be tradeable for me. This is because if a coin isn't liquid enough and I go put in an order, I'll slip myself to death and my edge will be nonexistent. Example: - imagine the orderbook of a coin shows that each price point only has $100 of limit orders sitting on it. - if you Market Buy $50,000 worth of the coin, you are going to obliterate the orderbook and impact the price too much... it will not be a fun time for you. Before you ape into a coin, double-check the volume/liquidity of it. You don't want to be the biggest player in some garbage ponzi... this will put a target on your back. 🌶️

There is only 1 thing that a Trader can say with 100% certainty and pure confidence. "I don't know what's going to happen next."

the 2 main trading styles ↓