Activist Inv Manager founded by Ben Axler, Specializing in Forensic Short-Selling. Invest @ Your Own Risk, click on the link below to read our disclaimer
Joined March 2014
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I am pleased to announce that Spruce Point Capital Management was ranked #2 in @diligentHQ 2025 Short Seller Watchlist in its recently released report
Did anyone catch what appears to be massive (~70%+) restatement of titanium powder production at $IPX #IperionX the Company claiming to revolutionize the titanium industry?
The inventory is building up and there are still ZERO commercial sales and accumulated losses. They just said June qtr production was 1.4 tons, but fact checking this against a previously shown monthly production chart would indicate significantly higher Q2/June production over 4 tons.
If the production is wrong, then there's a high likelihood the financial results are wrong too. Of course, recall, $IPX already conducted one restatement that shareholders revolted on, is another revolt looming?
#Titanium #metals #financialreporting #forensics
cc: @DeptofWar you are funding IperionX for some programs. We think the American taxpayer should demand the @USGAO do a full audit of IPX and the programs given the company's past financial restatement and powder reporting discrepancies.
While it was a nice vote of confidence - which we applaud - by a few directors to buy very small token amount of $NVA stock on the open market recently, the real story seems to come to light with a new 10-K/A filing. The LARGEST insider and Director of Finance appears to have sold a substantial position. Just since the end of Sept '26, down from 2.26M to 0.43M and well below the 4.3M shares he owned in Sept '25. The timing is quite interesting after the 'exciting' news that Nova got some permits for its pilot plant... Hmmm. Also, we'd love to see the new CFO Mrs Thorburn also give a vote of confidence by owning stock; currently she owns ZERO.
$BG #Bunge results look horrible and they appear to be in a serious financial hole. Lowers outlook in Soybean Processing and Refining and Topical Oils and Specialty Ingredients (two of highest margin segments), Boosts Interest Expense assumption (because its borrowing heavily with no cash flow). Just look at the huge CFO swing YoY From +$854m to -$1.2bn! They have not generated a single $ all year and are having to tap the credit facility (to pay the dividend and stock repos) and leverage keeps rising with intensifying cash burn. But they are claiming to maintain $9.50 of "adjusted" EPS guidance despite all of this...right!
Well, I guess after talking up its applications in consumer electronics, $IPX can mark this titanium sales opportunity at zero? $AAPL Apple announces partnership with Perryman Co to supply titanium products which use 80% recycled content
apple.com/newsroom/2026/10/a…
Seems like more evidence of margin compression at $MSCI, with operating income missing again at $502.1m vs. $508.4m est. Margins compressed in 3 of 4 segments, heavily in their key analytics business by 450bps, worse than expected. Free cash flow down 9% YoY.
I'm a little troubled by what I see at $NVA #NovaMinerals, which is running out of money and pinned its hopes on a great #antimony story. I don't understand why, if they have great grade and viably economic antimony, did they disclose they purchased ore for metallurgical and process studies? Thoughts anyone?
Chief Legal Officer of $BG #Bunge now leaving, following the Chief Accounting Officer departure last month. I thought there was so much upside to the Viterra transaction, why leave now? #bearish
sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edg…
$NVA now issues a going concern warning and notes a material weakness of financial controls... is it self-evident.... A $9.2m gain from operations in 2025 or a loss?
B Riley slashes $IPX price target from $52 to $34/share. Still far too optimistic in our view for a promoter that has projected upside cases that have not panned out. Meanwhile, essentially everything we forecasted has proven prescient: 1) Concerns with the financials >> a restatement, 2) Challenges with the Titan Project >> no offtake and no financing, 3) Concerns with lack of customer acceptance and scaling costs >> no revenue and operating cost bloat with accelerated cash burn. We'll stick with our $1.50 - $3.00 price target which may ultimately proven to be generous.
sprucepointcap.com/research/…
Whatever your investment bull case is for Nova Minerals NYSE: $NVA we believe it should be significantly hampered by today's notification that its 10-K Annual Report has not been filed on-time. Is the $43m @DeptofWar grant now jeopardized because it's been six months since Nova reported a cash balance and has no current financials? #Antimony and #Gold prices have declined sharply while Nova also pushed back its pre-feasibility study for its gold project to 2028 and walked back some of its "core differentiators" of the antimony project. Timelines keep slipping, commodity prices are declining and Nova is burning cash while funding is highly uncertain.
Haven't we seen this before high oil ≠ cash flow for $BG.
Nice time to retire for @Bunge Chief Accounting Officer and Controller months after we called for an independent investigation into the accuracy of its financial reporting and accounting. No disagreements of course.
Bunge has burned through $1.1 bn of cash from operations YTD, with stellar $3.83 of "Adjusted" EPS. Food for thought....
We're troubled that we are now past earnings season, yet we have not seen any financial reporting from Nova Minerals $NVA about the recent quarter or year end results June 30th. The Company is spending heavily with no revenue and may have only a few quarters of cash left. The @DeptofWar granted NVA a $43m award to advance its project to secure domestic antimony in Oct 2025, but antimony prices have collapsed sharply this year leaving other producers like $UAMY to sharply cut forecasts. With NVA having recently appointed a new CFO in April, we think the Company should ensure both the US Gov't and investors that a least some preliminary financials will soon be forthcoming.
Anyone following $IRTC should be highly troubled by its recently announced acquisition of VitalConnect. We believe the company is squandering $237m of its cash (40%) and diluting investors for this deal as a poor insurance policy against the challenges of delivering upon its existing product roadmap. Even worse, IRTC has agreed to fund VitalConnect's working capital for months before the deal even closes, an indication to us it is buying a money losing product that may have struggled to find financing. If IRTC's organic outlook were truly positive, we don't think it would have done this deal.
We are pleased to release a new forensic report on iRhythm Technologies (Nasdaq: $IRTC) a medical technology and services company that supplies ambulatory cardiac monitors used to detect arrhythmias and other cardiac abnormalities that can indicate atrial fibrillation. We believe the Company's products are largely commoditized, have limited ability to increase margins and are facing growth headwinds. Opportunities to expand into the asymptomatic market are likely to disappoint as wearable devices from companies like hashtag @Apple $AAPL offer inexpensive solutions. However, we think the greatest underappreciated risks remain federal investigations into its product safety. Shares trade at an approximate 100% - 200% premium to other medical device and service companies. As a result, we see 40%-70% downside risk potential. sprucepointcap.com/research/…
Apparently Wells Fargo is also confused about $IRTC and its VitalConnect deal saying its not fully clear on the strategy behind the deal. Price target lowered from $180 to $168/sh.
$DV DoubleVerify to be acquired by Nielsen for $13.60 per share. Only 60% below what the analysts said it was worth at the time of our short report and there was not a single sell opinion, well except for us....
We are now a year into the highly promoted Viterra / Bunge $BG mega-deal and I'm struggling to see where the upside and synergies are with the backdrop of strong #agriculture markets, and higher #oil prices supporting the #biodiesel tailwinds promoted by the analysts.
Q2 segment results continue to show mixed performance but importantly free cash flow strain is intensifying. Bunge continues to show us it is really a value-destructive, cash incinerating levered roll-up needing more and more debt to sustain itself.
I can think of 59 million reasons to sell now that its 1-year lock-up with its top shareholders has expired...
