@stanitut
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Buysider; An entire winter of denominations snows down from the sky, hundreds of thousands, millions, but every flake, every thousand melts in your hand.
City of London, London
Joined July 2015
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Stanitut retweeted
50 new pitches found in hedge fund reports this week :
🔹 Abbott Laboratories (ABT US) by Acatis
🔹 Abivax (ABVX US) by Cedar Grove Capital Management Multi-Strategy Composite
🔹 Adyen (ADYEN NA) by Lakehouse Capital Global Growth Fund
🔹 Alcon (ALC US) by Beck Mack & Oliver Portfolio
🔹 Alibaba Group Holdings (BABA US) by CDT Capital VNAV
🔹 Alphabet (GOOGL US) by Troy Asset Management Multi-Asset Strategy
🔹 Alphabet (GOOGL US) by Lakehouse Capital Global Growth Fund
🔹 Amazon (AMZN US) by Longriver Partners Fund
🔹 Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG US) by Guinness Global Equity Income Fund
🔹 Astellas Pharma (4503 JP) by Lindsell Train Japanese Equity Fund
🔹 Auto Trader Group PLC (AUTO LN) by Pender Global Small/Mid Cap Equity Fund
🔹 Auxly Cannabis Group Inc (XLY.TO) by Cedar Grove Capital Management Multi-Strategy Composite
🔹 Belden (BDC US) by Amati Investment Funds
🔹 Broadcom (AVGO US) by CDT Capital VNAV
🔹 Canadian National Railway (CN CN) by Troy Asset Management Multi-Asset Strategy
🔹 Cirsa (CIRSA SM) by Horos AM Funds
🔹 Cisco Systems (CSCO US) by Lorne Steinberg Wealth Management Steinberg Equity Strategies
🔹 CyberAgent, Inc. (4751 JP) by Hennessy Japan Small Cap Fund
🔹 Eaton (ETN US) by Guinness Global Equity Income Fund
🔹 Eli Lilly (LLY US) by Andrew Hill Client Account Strategy
🔹 ENAV (ENAV IM) by TAMIM Fund Global High Conviction
🔹 Experian (EXPN LN) by Troy Asset Management Multi-Asset Strategy
🔹 Gaztransport et Technigaz (GTT FP) by TAMIM Fund: Global High Conviction
🔹 Grupa Pracuj by Ennismore Global Smaller Companies Fund
🔹 Hims and Hers Health (HIMS US) by Cedar Grove Capital Management Multi-Strategy Composite
🔹 Hyakugo Bank (8331 JP) by Leaven Partners, LP
🔹 James Hardie Industries (JHX AU) by Amati Investment Funds
🔹 Lam Research (LRCX US) by ACATIS
🔹 Lam Research (LRCX US) by Guinness Global Innovators Fund
🔹 Línea Directa (LDA SM) by Horos AM Funds
🔹 Lion Finance Group by Ennismore European Smaller Companies Fund
🔹 Murata Manufacturing (6981 JP) by TAMIM Fund Global High Conviction
🔹 ONEOK (OKE US) by Malborough Global Essential Infrastructure
🔹 Oxford Nanopore (ONT LN) by Acatis
🔹 Recruit Holdings Co., Ltd. (6098 JP) by Hennessy Japan Small Cap Fund
🔹 Sage (SGE LN) by WS Lindsell Train UK Equity Fund
🔹 SAP (SAP GR) by Lindsell Train Global Equity Fund
🔹 Securitize (SECZ US) by Jacob Funds Management
🔹 Space Exploration Technology Corp by Pender US Small/Mid Cap Equity Fund
🔹 Spirax Group (SPX LN) by Lindsell Train UK Equity Fund
🔹 Suzano (SUZB3 BZ) by Horos AM Funds
🔹 TE Connectivity (TEL US) by Guinness Sustainable Energy Fund
🔹 The Bank of Nagoya (8522 JP) by Leaven Partners, LP
🔹 TP ICAP Group (IAP LN) by Lindsell Train UK Equity Fund
🔹 Twist Bioscience (TWST US) by Acatis
🔹 VBG Group by Kavaljer Quality Focus
🔹 Welltower Inc. (WELL US) by Guinness Global Real Assets Fund
🔹 Williams Companies (WMB US) by Malborough Global Essential Infrastructure
🔹 Wolters Kluwer (WKL NA) by Acatis
🔹 Zedcor Inc (ZDC.V) by Cedar Grove Capital Management Multi-Strategy Composite
-> hfbestideas.substack.com/p/5…
Stanitut retweeted
Here is the list
(I use Michael Cemblast's list, it is as good as any list I've seen.)
Stanitut retweeted
The S&P 500 made a new all-time high yesterday. Just three of eleven sectors are up since its prior all-time high on 8/13:
Stanitut retweeted
AI-related stocks (defined by the JPM basket) now make up 49% of the S&P 500.
Those same 41 companies account for about two-thirds of the S&P 500’s year-to-date market cap change.
Stanitut retweeted
"Stocks don't seem to care about higher bond yields over the past month"
The stocks:
Stanitut retweeted
Just carnage out there...
Since June 1:
- 89% of stocks are down more than 10%
- 54% more than 20%
- 29% more than 30%
- 7% more than 50%
Source: Morgan Stanley
Stanitut retweeted
Tech vs. ex-Tech: "It's not just that the two sides are moving apart - they're moving apart more aggressively than at any point since this bull market began."
@DualityResearch
Stanitut retweeted
Bain’s GLOBAL base case implies ~149 GW of net data-center IT capacity added through 2030, with annual additions rising from ~20 GW in 2026 to 36 GW in 2029–30. Reminder, US is something on the order of 50-67% of adds and might be disproportionately higher in the near-term as it can build capacity faster than ROW ex-China.
Implied annual additions from its chart, 2026/27/28/29/30, rounded:
>Low: 19/21/23/23/23 GW
>Base: 20/25/32/36/36 GW
>High: 24/33/38/43/45 GW
That takes global installed capacity from 79.2 GW in 2025 to:
>Low: 188 GW in 2030
>Base: 228 GW
>High: 262 GW
Bain estimates $5-6.5T of base-case buildout spending. Its other forecasts, 2023→2030:
>Electricity demand: 388→1,228 TWh
>Cooling revenue: $7.9→$28.4B, excluding China
>GPU/ASIC shipments: 3.9→38.6M
Capacity includes conventional workloads. Net additions exclude GPU refresh, retrofit and replacement of retired capacity.
Cuts I’d like to see: annual additions by region; training vs inference; GPU vs ASIC; spending including refresh; and energized vs contracted/proposed capacity.
Stanitut retweeted
Only one sector showing strength relative to the broad market: Technology.
Most of the others are at or near multi-month lows in relative performance.
Stanitut retweeted
From @SteveRattner Data centers are booming... all other private construction is shrinking.
Stanitut retweeted
Small bird, fast wings, Kolibri is here.
78B parameters. 3.46B active. Up to 1M tokens of context. Built in Europe.
Now the weights are yours. Run it on your own hardware, under Apache 2.0.
Stanitut retweeted
Euro-Crisis II?
French bond spreads have widened more than in the Greek debt crisis of 2010 and also more than during the period of Spanish denomination risk concern in 2012.
Even compared to the most intense period of the Euro-crisis (the sovereign debt / bank nexus of 2011) the current spread widening in France is arguably faster.
In 2011, we had 104bp of widening in 106 days. But in 2016 we have had 67bp of widening in less than a month.
And I would argue that fundamentally the situation is more concerning than in the first Euro-Crisis (2010-2012).
First, France is a big country, and harder to bail out than Greece or other smaller countries.
Second, France's debt dynamics have deteriorated notably since the days of Euro-Crisis I, with debt to GDP now nearing 120%, compared to closer to 80% in 2009.
Third, European politics are even more unstable. The centrist parties (which previously provided a fiscal anchor) have shrunk or entirely disappeared, in both France and Germany, leaving a path to fiscal consolidation much harder to imagine.
Fourth, the competition for capital globally is much fiercer with AI related capital demands putting pressure on global bond markets. Further, with inflation above targets in most G7 economies, it is much harder for central banks to provide backstops for sovereigns.
Back in the first Euro-Crisis i wrote a book about all of this ("The Fall of the Euro: Reinventing the Future of the Eurozone"). The key message was: What allowed the Euro to survive back in 2010-2012 was the political will to keep it together (not any financial or debt metric or bank stat).
Hence, the key question is. Is the political will there now in 2026, and in the years to come, with a number of tricky elections around the corner?
Stanitut retweeted
Japan has soma amazing names across the value chain of AI
A few great charts to get a gauge on Japan's positioning in Semis. There are plenty of small cap names the sell side doesn't cover, where their IR pages+ presentations are only in Japanese and management commentary isn't even published! A useful filtering tip to find potential under the radar candidates is to go onto tradingview and click the 'No Analyst Rating' box. Happy hunting.
