Polypanda
Trappist-1
Joined March 2016
- Tweets1.3K
- Following676
- Followers4K
- Likes5.8K
Panda.eth retweeted
This 14-year-old idiot climbed the wall of the National Guard facility during yesterday’s Russian psyop, only for Russian disinformation to claim he was a "mobilized and tortured teenager." Clear video footage shows him ascending the structure, debunking another cheap Kremlin lie
Panda.eth retweeted
Yesterday, an anonymous black hat group reached out with an insane RL request.
They offered an astronomical amount of money to post-train open-weight models on exploit data.
The amount of attack data they claim to hold is unlike anything I have ever seen. If someone told me this was an undercover FBI dataset, I would have believed it.
For context, a white-hat project I worked on using GLM-5.3 used less than one percent of that volume, and it already outperformed frontier models by a huge margin.
Of course, I turned it down. But what genuinely scares me is knowing someone else will eventually take the deal.
Panda.eth retweeted
So, basically, 500 million Europeans expect 300 million Americans to protect them from 120 million Russians who can’t even defeat 40 million Ukrainians while those 500 million Europeans don’t even realize they are being conquered by 2 billion Muslims who claim they are being persecuted by 8 million Israelis. Is that about right?
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Panda.eth retweeted
.@CarOnPolymarket is the biggest POS alive
TLDR: Polymarket's frontend gets compromised and $2.6M gets drained.
Car claims he lost $800K, but if you look onchain, the funds were actually transferred to one of his alt wallets that he had interacted with before.
He then posts on Twitter claiming he got drained, using the attention to:
- Shill his referral link
-Potentially claim another $800K if Polymarket refunds affected users
I've genuinely never seen this level of narcissistic behavior.
Panda.eth retweeted
SpaceX Blocked A U.S. And NATO Satellite to Assist a Russian Intercept After Crippling Ukraine's Air Defenses
The Math Proves the Reality that Musk doesn't want you to see.
On Oct 13-14, SpaceX restricted Starshield/Starlink during a 39-missile Russian attack, cutting Ukrainian drone intercepts by 23% and stranding U.S. personnel in Kyiv. Forty-eight hours later (Oct 15), SpaceX blocked U.S.-licensed NRO, Space Force, and NATO radar satellite ICEYE-X36 in orbit so Russia's COSMOS 2612 weapon could intercept it (99.89%-99.98% posterior)
Our Model Demonstrates that the Russian intercept of the US/NATO ICEYE X-36 satellite (contemporaneous with the throttling of Starlink) would not have been possible, and almost certainly not been attempted, without SpaceX resources. At a material opportunity cost, Russia sprinted its COSMOS satellite to intercept ICEYE X36. Based on a previous attempt in June during which X36 maneuvered to evade COSMOS, Russia knew that this would be successful only if X36 could not maneuver. On October 15, SpaceX fixed X36 in place by issuing a collision alert for a sub-kilometer approach with its Starlink 35856 when SpaceX's own data shows that the actual distance was 4.8-5.0x as great. SpaceX issued no warning to COSMOS despite the fact that its sprint was far more threatening than the stable X36 orbit. SpaceX did not maneuver its Starlink 35856 satellite to clear the supposed collision risk. How, absent coordination with SpaceX, could Russia have known that SpaceX would take actions that (a) misrepresented the danger posed by X36, and (b) resulted in the fixing of X36 thereby enabling COSMOS's successful intercept? Thus, SpaceX was directly involved in simultaneously compromising Ukraine’s defensive and offensive capabilities. The conjunction of these two events makes innocent explanations untenable.
The Pentagon Capture & Iran Round Two Trap: Pentagon CTO Emil Michael who cashed out $7M–$35M from Musk’s inner-circle SpaceX vehicles (M8/Gigafund 0.1 and M6/Valor M33 II) and KQ Partners / xAI (selling xAIfor $5M–$25M three days before taking over CDAO/OSCand 21 days before SpaceX bought xAI, while keeping M8, M6, M9, M10 & Nomadic open) and Pete Hegseth purged rival Anthropic in two hours, surrendered combat command over US drones used to attack Iran to Starlink’s "Terms of Service," and on October 2 named Musk Co-Director of Project Meridian to design the Pentagon's "Future of Warfighting" just as America enters Iran Round Twowith depleted Patriot/THAAD magazines and Russia feeding U.S. warship/aircraft locations to Tehran.
SpaceX’s actions in Ukraine raise serious questions about its alignment with US security interests and its reliability as a cornerstone of US defense. These questions are particularly troubling given the effectively irreplaceable position SpaceX has been granted by the Hegseth/Emil Michael Pentagon.
$SPCX $TSLA
Our full quantitative analysis below w/ @streetwiseprof
Panda.eth retweeted
The Economist przeprowadził w USA badanie dot. poparcia Rosji lub Ukrainy w obecnym konflikcie.
Wyniki, niezależnie czy mowa o zwolennikach demokratów czy republikanów (ba nawet zwolennikach MAGA) są jednoznaczne.
Przyznam że jestem zaskoczony tymi wynikami, dlaczego?
1/
Panda.eth retweeted
So basically, today PHP got two critical bugs that let anyone run code on your server without even logging in, which is bad, and then the details leaked before the patch was even out, which is worse, and it works on WordPress and MediaWiki and Magento and Joomla and Laravel, and Censys says like 1.5 million servers are running a version with no fix, so the NSA was like "take your system offline," and the FBI was like "take your system offline," and CISA and the UK and CERT-EU were all like "take your system offline," and then the Prime Minister of Japan, the actual Prime Minister, posted at 5:55 in the morning telling 48.8 million people to take their system offline, so everyone took their system offline, like the Dutch cybersecurity agency took its own website offline, and the Dutch parliament went offline, and the Port of Rotterdam went offline, and Finland and France and Denmark started pulling government sites, and Wikipedia went down, and Archive.org went down, and Asana and GOG and Something Awful went down, and the University of Vienna's webmail went down for some reason, and that's just PHP. Because GitLab also dropped a CVSS 10.0, which is the highest score they give out, for a bug that's been there since 2014, so that's every self-hosted GitLab for twelve years, and then LiteLLM 1.107.0 got hijacked and shipped a credential stealer and a remote access trojan in every single wheel and the Docker images, including latest, and you didn't even have to import it, just installing it was enough, and it's the second time this year, and then Railway paused every deployment on the entire platform because someone got into the environment variables, so now everyone has to rotate every secret they've ever stored there, and TiDB Cloud said someone was walking around inside with stolen credentials for basically a month and an extortion group says they took 10.6 terabytes, and Zeabur got breached for the second time in two months and is just shutting down, like the whole company, and Node.js patched remote code execution and a TLS bypass, and CISA says Plex is being actively exploited, and someone took over 300 Tor exit relays to steal SSH passwords, and SafePay ransomware has hit over 600 critical infrastructure orgs, and India's biggest bank filed a data loss incident, and Japan has been in an official state of emergency in cyberspace since October 9, which honestly explains the 5:55 AM post. Oh, and eMudhra, a certificate authority that's issued over 60 million certificates, whose entire job is proving websites are who they say they are, was supposed to be using private keys that are random numbers over a hundred digits long, and one of them was 4. Just 4. And the others were like 66 and 237. Anyway, it's Wednesday.
Panda.eth retweeted
We suspected this was the reason Ukraine’s access to Starshield was restricted. But to see it from senior officials in this reporting is still utterly unconscionable.
Let’s be absolutely clear about what this means. The Trump Administration deliberately restricted technology Ukraine relies on to intercept Russian drones and ballistic missiles. It made it harder for Ukraine to defend itself and easier for Russia to carry out its deadly attacks against Ukrainian civilians.
They knew exactly what was at stake. They knew that more Russian drones and missiles would get through, allowing Russia to kill even more Ukrainians. And yet they went ahead anyway.
This is a deliberate weaking of Ukraine’s defenses that only Russia will benefit from. It is a betrayal of our ally that this Administration cannot wash its hands of.
The American people deserve to know who made this decision, why they made it, and how they can possibly justify putting more innocent Ukrainian lives in the crosshairs of Putin’s war machine.
reuters.com/world/europe/ord…
Panda.eth retweeted
Ukraine will win this war, with or without the United States. Donald Trump is a traitor whose actions repeatedly serve Russia’s interests. Europe, Ukraine, and Canada have gone as far as they can with an administration that betrays its allies, undermines their security and accommodates their enemies. We will not surrender Ukraine’s future, Europe or Canada's freedom or our sovereignty to Trump and Putin. We will all move forward together, with or without the United States.
Panda.eth retweeted
A message to all sane Republicans: He pardoned 1,600 violent criminals. You said nothing. He bulldozed the East Wing. You said nothing. He interfered with the release of the Epstein files. You said nothing. He took over the Kennedy Center and renamed it after himself. You said nothing. He accepted a $400 million airplane as a personal gift. You said nothing. He threatened Canada, Cuba, Denmark, Greenland, Venezuela, Colombia, and Brazil. You said nothing. He tariffed just about everyone but Russia, causing inflation and instability worldwide. You said nothing. He attacked a nation during mediated negotiations. You said nothing. His ill-conceived war killed 175 children on day one. You said nothing. He alienated and insulted our allies. You said nothing. His ICE Army terrorized and murdered U.S. citizens. You said nothing. He committed murder on the high seas. You said nothing. He co-opted the Justice Department and directed it to prosecute his political enemies. You said nothing. It's time to start talking!!!
It's long overdue!!!!
Panda.eth retweeted
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has the overwhelming support of the United States Congress, he has the overwhelming support of the American people, and he has the overwhelming support of the Ukrainian people. Russian illegally invaded Ukraine, a sovereign and freedom-loving nation, and Russia is squarely to blame for all damage and destruction, to both lives and treasure, that has resulted from Putin’s unprovoked attack.
@ZelenskyyUa, you know that the United States Congress, and the American people, stand 100% behind you. The Ukrainian people are so blessed to have you leading them in these difficult times. We have your back, and we will stand with you until Ukrainian victory is achieved. 🇺🇸 🇺🇦
Panda.eth retweeted
Do you remember when @magiceden said this after shutting down their EVM listings? The internet remembers. 🪄👀
Panda.eth retweeted
I resigned from Anthropic today. I spent the last three years doing pretraining research at both OpenAI and Anthropic. Neither company is acting responsibly. They are racing straight to self-improving superintelligence and gambling with our lives. More thoughts below.
Panda.eth retweeted
6 days ago we publicly asked @Winna for the records behind player Heyri’s 62 disputed bets.
Winna did not respond.
So we investigated using Winna’s own public systems.
What we found:
-The player was not served Winna’s public Slide. He was served a private, account-gated VIP version that was visually identical on screen.
-The 62 disputed bets cannot be independently verified today. Winna’s public API serves no result, no target and no seeds for any of them. $10.5M of wagers resolve to nothing.
-We found no independently verifiable pre-bet commitment for the VIP build: a fresh server seed every bet, nonce fixed at 0, a client seed tied to a Bitcoin block mined in 2023, and no published commitment chain.
Our conclusion:
On the evidence available to us, the VIP Slide was not provably fair and the disputed bets are not independently verifiable.
We make no claim that any outcome was manipulated.
Our finding is that the implementation did not provide the guarantees provably fair exists to provide.
Full investigation linked below
Provably fair dispute: @xxxmourn's investigation for player Heyri - who asked us to review his case with @Winna @paulwinnacom
We've only heard one side, so this is an invitation to Winna.
2 issues need answers.
Issue 1: The disputed bets can't be verified, at all. The public bet pages load with no result, no seeds, no fairness details. That page is the whole point of provably fair.
Issue 2: The VIP Slide had no lock on the outcome. Winna's own seed data shows it ran the Limbo formula with the safeguards stripped:
- a fresh operator seed every bet
- no published chain (the seeds connect to nothing)
- nonce stuck at 0
- a client seed fixed to a 2023 Bitcoin block the player couldn't change
The operator's seed alone decided each result, nothing locked it in beforehand.
That's the information we have been given at this stage.
To complete the record, we're asking @Winna to provide all 62 rounds, one row per bet: bet ID, time, stake, player's target, result, server seed, the hash shown before the bet.
Along with any other relevant information they have so we have both sides of the story.
Winna's fairness page confirms every one of these values should exist.
Only a pre bet commitment can prove fairness, but this lets us start a fair assessment of the situation - and we'll publish the outcome independently either way.
Panda.eth retweeted
🗣️ José Mourinho blasts the referee and VAR after Belgium’s controversial late penalty.
🗣️ “That’s never a penalty. Never.
I watched the replay five, six, seven times, and I’m still asking myself what the referee saw. Tielemans doesn’t win the ball, there’s minimal contact, and somehow it’s enough to decide one of the biggest games of the tournament.
Football is becoming impossible for defenders. Every slight touch is treated like a crime. If that’s the standard, then we should tell defenders not to challenge anymore because any attacker who goes to ground will expect a penalty.
The most disappointing part isn’t even the referee, it’s VAR. That’s exactly why VAR exists: to correct clear mistakes, not to protect them.
You cannot let 120 minutes of sacrifice, tactics and hard work be overshadowed by such a soft decision. At this level, that’s simply unacceptable.”
#FIFAWorldCup
#BELSEN
Panda.eth retweeted
This was the highest volume day on $IBIT, ever, by a factor of nearly 2x, trading $10.7B today. Additionally, roughly $900M in options premiums were traded today, also the highest ever for IBIT. Given these facts and the way $BTC and $SOL traded down in lockstep today (normally SOL trades with beta) + the relatively lower liquidations on CeFi exchanges, this leads me to believe that the nexus of the problem lies with a large IBIT holder. IBIT has become the #1 venue for BTC options trading, so my guess is that a hedge fund trading IBIT options is the culprit.
If you look at the 13F filings for IBIT (I like whalewisdom dot com), you'll find a number of interesting names that have the majority of their fund in IBIT. In fact, there are a few in there (not naming names) that have 100% of their fund in IBIT, which likely means no cross margin. In fact, the biggest reason to set up a fund to hold a single asset would be to isolate margin, so that if the trade blew up, the brokers wouldn't have claim to any other assets.
Interestingly, most of these giant, single asset funds are based in HK.
We know that Asian traders, particularly in China, have been deeply involved in the Silver and Gold trade. Silver was down 20% today, which was the 2nd largest 1 day move in a very long time (largest on Jan 30). We also know that the JPY carry trade has been unwinding at an increasingly rapid pace.
This leads me to think that the culprit for the IBIT blowup today was 1 or more HK-based non-crypto hedge funds. As @FranklinBi pointed out, the fund(s) being non-crypto would explain why no one sniffed them out. They would likely have few/no crypto counterparties, meaning complete isolation from CT.
The last small piece of evidence I have is that I personally know a number of HK-based hedge funds that are holders of $DFDV, which had the worst single down day ever, with a meaningful mNAV decline. The mNAV had been holding steady surprisingly well throughout this pull back until today. One of these fund(s) could have been connected to the IBIT culprit, as I highly doubt a fund taking that large of a position in IBIT and using a single entity structure would only have the one fund.
Now, I could easily see how the fund(s) could have been running a levered options trade on IBIT (think way OTM calls = ultra high gamma) with borrowed capital in JPY. Oct 10th could very well have blown a hole in their balance sheet, that they tried to win back by adding leverage waiting for the "obvious" rebound. As that led to increased losses, coupled with increased funding costs in JPY, I could see how the fund(s) would have gotten more desperate and hopped on the Silver trade. When that blew up, things got dire and this last push in BTC finished them off.
I have no hard evidence here, just some hunches and bread crumbs, but it does seem very plausible. Let's see if some more concrete evidence floats to the surface here soon. The smoking gun will be a large fund fitting this profile filing a 13F showing a giant IBIT holding going to zero. Unfortunately, if a fund had their IBIT position liquidated today, they wouldn't have to disclose the position change until 45 days after the quarter end, so we'd be looking at mid May for the smoking gun from 13F filings most likely.
Hopefully some of you out there with too much time on your hands this weekend can snoop around more. My guess is that word will start to get out, because something of this size is just too hard to hide. Additionally, if the broker was not able to liquidate the fund in time, the broker may have a hole in their balance sheet, which would be even more difficult to hide.