Individual Investor. Report Share. No Financial Advice
Joined February 2024
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If everyone else's stocks are rising, but yours are falling, you need to examine your strategy.
If everyone else's stocks are falling, but yours are rising, you need to praise your choices.
If everyone is losing money just like you, then we will all be fine sooner.🤕
Is there still a chance for the index to turn green today?
I feel too many stocks are falling for no reason.
$KO Coca-Cola outperformed all the Mag7 in 2026.
2026 YTD:
Coca-Cola: +35.19%
Apple: +28.6%
Nividia: +11.26%
Microsoft: +8.77%
Amazon: -1.9%
Meta: -7.06%
Google: -9.83%
Tesla: -12.53%
Is this year AI driven?
Now all the bubble is in Coca-Cola cans.
$INTC
-The company expects fourth quarter adjusted EPS of 25 cents, versus the 43 cent analyst estimate, and revenue in a range of $15 billion to $16 billion, versus the $17.05 billion estimate.
That's why it crashed after market.
Weak PC demand dragged the guidance.
$AMZN
Revenue: $201 billion, est: $202 billion.
AWS: $45.9 billion, est: $45.6 billion.
Operating Profit: $28 billion, est: $26 billion
EPS: 1.89, est: $1.97
And again, market only price in the missing ones.
Looks like the index is getting better. And semiconduct is directly benefit from Google's capex.
Let's see will $GOOG drag down all the stock market.
I guess after few hours, people will realize they have over panic.
It sometimes seems the market won't let a company deploy the cash it has built up.
A growing, profitable business gets rewarded with a higher multiple — but the moment you spend those earnings on capex, the market may re-rate you lower, even when the investment could earn an outsized return.
In practice, public markets often reward capital discipline — buybacks, dividends, modest capex — over long-horizon bets.
That's not fair: the market claims to reward innovation, yet it often penalizes the spending innovation requires.
$GOOG
Let's see will $GOOG drag down all the stock market.
I guess after few hours, people will realize they have over panic.
Large companies have financing priority, especially considering the huge cash flow business owned by $MSFT and its AAA excellent rating maintained for many years.
Issuing $25 billion in debt financing, the actual financing cost may be around 5%, which is much more cost-effective than equity financing.
The market should not worry too much about this.
How this will affect $LITE.
Lumentum sold EML laser chips, CW lasers, and some optical components to Innolight.
Can downstream revenue and profit now partly reflect upstream growth?
Zhongji Innolight, a Chinese manufacturer of optical transceivers and co-packaged optics (CPO) components. Just release its Q3 financial report.
-Its 2026 revenue accelerated for a second straight quarter: +14.3% QoQ in Q2, then +24.6% QoQ in Q3 to RMB 27.769 billion (~4.71 billion dollar).
-Net profit attributable to shareholders decelerated sequentially, from +38.0% in Q2 to +8.5% in Q3.
-The primary reasons were an RMB 254 million FX loss from its Hong Kong listing proceeds and a RMB 440 million fair-value loss on equity investments.
-After these adjustments, Q3 non-GAAP net profit was RMB 9.018 billion(~1.35 billion dollar), a 22%–26% QoQ increase. While slower than Q2, this growth aligns with revenue, suggesting stable margins.
-The market capitalization peaked at RMB 1.33 trillion in late May, with a TTM P/E of 89x. The current market cap is RMB 685.6 billion(~102.85billion dollar), with a P/E of 26.5x. This de-rating is primarily due to the share-price decline, rather than weaker earnings.
Zhongji Innolight, a Chinese manufacturer of optical transceivers and co-packaged optics (CPO) components. Just release its Q3 financial report.
-Its 2026 revenue accelerated for a second straight quarter: +14.3% QoQ in Q2, then +24.6% QoQ in Q3 to RMB 27.769 billion (~4.71 billion dollar).
-Net profit attributable to shareholders decelerated sequentially, from +38.0% in Q2 to +8.5% in Q3.
-The primary reasons were an RMB 254 million FX loss from its Hong Kong listing proceeds and a RMB 440 million fair-value loss on equity investments.
-After these adjustments, Q3 non-GAAP net profit was RMB 9.018 billion(~1.35 billion dollar), a 22%–26% QoQ increase. While slower than Q2, this growth aligns with revenue, suggesting stable margins.
-The market capitalization peaked at RMB 1.33 trillion in late May, with a TTM P/E of 89x. The current market cap is RMB 685.6 billion(~102.85billion dollar), with a P/E of 26.5x. This de-rating is primarily due to the share-price decline, rather than weaker earnings.
Looks like Memonry is getting stronger in 2027.
-TrendForce predicts that the blended ASP of HBM will increase by 122% year-on-year to US$3.7/Gb in 2027, driving the HBM industry's revenue to grow by over 230% year-on-year, exceeding US$200 billion.
-The high-end price of HBM4 can reach over US$5/Gb, while the low-end is close to US$3/Gb.
-TrendForce believes that despite continuous investment in production capacity and technology by Chinese manufacturers, there is still a considerable gap in technology and yield compared with leading suppliers, so the competitive risk in the medium term is limited. It is estimated that Chinese suppliers will account for less than 2% of the HBM market share in 2027, with JHICC still focusing on HBM2E and CXMT targeting HBM3/3E.
Is it truly necessary for the Fed to raise interest rates before 2027? It's widely understood that inflation in America is influenced by conflicts in Iran, and interest rate adjustments have a limited impact on this.
To solve this, whether through war or negotiation, we need to conclude it soon.
Funny to see this
As AI trading falters, a "risk-off rotation" of funds into healthcare and consumer staples has pushed the Bubble Risk Indicator (BRI) for these two sectors to historical highs.
As of October 23, the US healthcare sector's BRI reading was approximately 0.8, the highest among all assets tracked by Bank of America, while consumer staples were around 0.74 and energy around 0.7.
In contrast, the technology sector was only about 0.5, Nasdaq about 0.3, and the "Magnificent Seven" only about 0.25.
SK Hynix's operating profit in financial reports exceeded expectations by -2.4%(Q1), -5.4%(Q2), and +9.3%(Q3) respectively.
Market expectations are becoming more reasonable, and Hynix's growth pace has not stopped.
$SKHY stated that its DRAM and HBM capacity is "basically sold out for the next three years until 2029."
HBM4 became the main product starting in Q4.
High profits may be sustained due to continuous shipments of new products, and the memory cycle is far from over.
-Anthropic's prospectus footnote reveals "$71.43 per share," corresponding to a valuation of only $1.2 trillion.
Actually, this is pretty good news. The impact of 1.2 trillion on market liquidity won't be that significant。
And if performance can maintain growth, there will be greater appreciation potential for the stock price.
Memory may indeed be a cyclical industry, I agree with that.
However, it is unlikely to end before 2028, so a PE ratio of 4 times now is a buy signal.
$SKHY reports tonight, US time, and it's being priced like the memory cycle is over 💀
I don’t think it is.
Consensus is about ₩98T in revenue, up 300%+ YoY, at roughly 78% operating margins. TSMC runs at around 60%.
HBM is sold out through 2027, and HBM prices are forecast to rise 121% next year.
12-layer HBM4 is already in mass production and shipping to core customers.
It just finished a ₩40T buyback, and a special dividend funded by the Kioxia stake sale is on the table.
The stock is still about half off its summer highs, at roughly 4x earnings by one estimate.
And Elon says memory is now the limiting factor for the whole AI buildout: supply grows about 20% a year while demand is up about 200%.
So you get record profits, sold-out capacity, cash going back to shareholders, and a price that says the memory cycle is over… I’m not buying it.
This is going higher or the whole AI trade is going lower.
Send it mfs!
