Quincy Vagell (@stormchaserQ) header
Quincy Vagell (@stormchaserQ) profile picture

Meteorologist, storm chaser; photographer. Media inquiries: [email protected] Instagram: stormchaserQ

Moore, OK
Joined April 2013
Photo by Quincy Vagell (@stormchaserQ)Photo by Quincy Vagell (@stormchaserQ)Photo by Quincy Vagell (@stormchaserQ)Photo by Quincy Vagell (@stormchaserQ)Photo by Quincy Vagell (@stormchaserQ)Photo by Quincy Vagell (@stormchaserQ)Photo by Quincy Vagell (@stormchaserQ)Photo by Quincy Vagell (@stormchaserQ)Photo by Quincy Vagell (@stormchaserQ)Photo by Quincy Vagell (@stormchaserQ)
Floyd, NM tornado sequence. Estimated start time was 5:18 p.m. and rope out at 5:40 p.m. Photos captured at 5:21, 5:25, 5:31 and 5:38 p.m. this evening. @NWSAlbuquerque
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Developing mesoscale convective system in north-central Oklahoma #okwx @NWSNorman – at Tonkawa, OK
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Storm mode in northern Oklahoma later today may get messy, but a few supercells and possibly a tornado or two could occur. This threat may be maximized early in the convective cycle, but also with any storms that favorably interact with an outflow boundary in NE Oklahoma #okwx
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I want to apologize for any links/DMs you were sent over the past month. I was hacked after I foolishly clicked on a link in a DM from a broadcast meteorologist. If we lose touch again, I am active on Instagram @stormchaserq and my backup on here is @danburyweather Sorry again.
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Low contrast view of a probable tornado near Hubbell, NE at 7:09 p.m. @NWSHastings
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Quincy Vagell retweeted
This is probably the biggest Pacific Jet extension I’ve ever seen in June & it isn’t surprising to see as we discussed several days ago. Buckle up…
All the ingredients are there for a gigantic Pacific Jet extension later in week 2 & 3, which should lead to a more favorable pattern for 🌪️ by mid-June: ✅ Kara Sea ridge >> East Asia cold shot ✅ Mei-Yu front south of Japan ✅ Pacific MJO event ✅ Developing Super El Niño
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Can’t pinpoint one. 1. Early season was very active, not everyone could get out. 2. Underperforming setups with mass chaser convergence 3. Historically bad blocking pattern during peak season. 4. Lack of supercell structure. Thru May 31st, my worst season since 2014. 1/2
Is there a scientific reason this chase season SUCKS SO BADLY
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Very fickle setups. Far more under-performances than over-performers. Chaser behavior is much worse than last year. Deep layer shear in May has been lacking. Below average structure. No offense, but storms many are saying look amazing this month are mediocre at best. 2/2
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21z surface analysis
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15z surface analysis:
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Today is one of those odd setups where some quirky things could happen. I fully expect a mixture of over performing and under performing storm chase targets, perhaps where many don’t expect it. May the odds be ever in your favor!
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The forecast: The pattern may finally flip in June week 2. The atmosphere: 🤣🤣🤣
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Storms have developed ahead of a pseudo-dryline in northwestern Oklahoma. The downstream environment is moderately unstable, along with backed low-level flow. A mixture of storm clusters and both right and left moving supercells can be expected, with a non-zero tornado risk.
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For tomorrow: You’d typically get excited about strong instability ahead of a surging dryline in Kansas in late May. However, a disjointed synoptic pattern, seasonably lackluster winds and only 20-25kts of shear suggest storm clusters and perhaps a few transient supercells. 1/2
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You could get a few supercells with this setup, but don’t expect a regional supercell outbreak with marginal shear and T/Td spreads of 20-30 F ahead of much of the dryline. A mesoscale environment or two can evolve within this, but it’s not an impressive setup for late May. 2/2
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Seven years ago today, I had a close call with a tornado in northeastern Kansas. A tour group had their vehicles flipped and one group member had serious injuries. I discussed the incident on YouTube and was threatened with legal action a short time later. youtu.be/EN7J6vpd40I
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Two target areas I’d look at if I was chasing the NW today. (Couldn’t quite commit to it) 1. Burns, OR. Afternoon CI seems likely, but within an environment of 40s dews. Storm motion W to NW, so unless a storm threads the needle along US-20, storms surge into poor terrain. 1/2
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2. Start SE of Lewiston, ID. Instability looks more substantial up here. An issue is late CI. Road networks and terrain are manageable, if storms were to remain at least semi discrete as they pass Lewiston, before sunset, with NW storm motions.
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Tonight’s secondary target brought me into eastern Oklahoma. I intercepted this storm on the nose of a remnant MCV near Talihina, OK. Visibility was low through most of the chase due to terrain obstacles.
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Now that I’m back home, I finally had some time to edit pics from the past couple of secondary target chases: Yesterday I opted to chase warm sector supercells. Although I arrived a bit late in the cycle, I chased this high precipitation supercell southwest of San Antonio:
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Had a great chat, it’s nice to catch up! Hopefully we’ll get some more active weather soon on the Plains to talk about 🙏
Nerding out tonight with @stormchaserQ and @nplareau, I'm excited
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