Stuart Rothenberg (@StuPolitics) header
Stuart Rothenberg (@StuPolitics) profile picture

Stuart Rothenberg

@StuPolitics

Fantasy baseball manager who does political handicapping in spare time. @Colby, @UConn. Taught Poli Sci @Bucknell. Rothenberg Political Report.

insideelections.com/
Joined February 2011
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  • Followers37.6K
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Photo by Stuart Rothenberg (@StuPolitics)Photo by Stuart Rothenberg (@StuPolitics)Photo by Stuart Rothenberg (@StuPolitics)Photo by Stuart Rothenberg (@StuPolitics)Photo by Stuart Rothenberg (@StuPolitics)Photo by Stuart Rothenberg (@StuPolitics)Photo by Stuart Rothenberg (@StuPolitics)Photo by Stuart Rothenberg (@StuPolitics)
Ridiculous.
Ben Yelin (@byelin) profile pictureBen Yelin
@byelinNov 2
Emerson coming in hot against the grain in Ohio. We'll find out tomorrow!
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Most of the tightest contests will ultimately break to the Democrats.
Aaron Blake (@AaronBlake) profile pictureAaron Blake
@AaronBlakeNov 2
This point can't be made enough. Here's my piece from last week: cnn.com/2026/10/29/politics/…
Analysis: The range of outcomes in the 2026 battle for the Senate is enormous | CNN Politics

Analysis: The range of outcomes in the 2026 battle for the Senate is enormous | CNN Politics

With just five days left in the 2026 election, there is a huge margin of error in the battle for the Senate — with many races showing no clear leader in the polls.

cnn.com
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Texas voter: I’m a Republican. I'm an old school Reagan Republican, and I believe personal integrity means things. And so I support people that have good personal integrity, and I like James Talarico. He is the kind of guy we need in office.
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Just a reminder. Trump is an idiot.
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Ha! Exactly.
Nathan Gonzales (@nathanlgonzales) profile pictureNathan Gonzales@nathanlgonzalesNov 2
Saltier than I'd put it, but the point is correct.
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This, from Nathan.
Nathan Gonzales (@nathanlgonzales) profile pictureNathan Gonzales@nathanlgonzalesNov 2
Bookmark: County-by-county benchmarks in key states by @bradwascher for @InsideElections insideelections.com/a-county…
A County-by-County Guide to Watching Tuesday’s Results

A County-by-County Guide to Watching Tuesday’s Results

insideelections.com
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Stuart Rothenberg retweeted
Nathan Gonzales (@nathanlgonzales) profile picture
Nathan Gonzales@nathanlgonzalesNov 2
Looking forward to @JacobRubashkin and @cspanJohn on C-SPAN on Tuesday night. c-span.org/program/washingto…
Jacob Rubashkin and John McArdle Preview Campaign 2026 Races to Watch

Jacob Rubashkin and John McArdle Preview Campaign 2026 Races to Watch

Jacob Rubashkin and John McArdle previewed campaign 2026 races to watch.

c-span.org
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Be sure you are tracking Inside Elections’ ratings on the House, Senate and Gov races to watch.
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Give me a break.
The Daily Beast (@thedailybeast) profile pictureThe Daily Beast
@thedailybeastNov 2
Allan Lichtman, who has correctly predicted all but one presidential election since 1984, delivered his final verdict on the upcoming midterm election. thedailybeast.com/polling-no…
Election ‘Nostradamus’ Reveals Final Midterm Prediction

Election ‘Nostradamus’ Reveals Final Midterm Prediction

Allan Lichtman has revealed what he thinks will happen with the midterm elections.

thedailybeast.com
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
Lichtman has not correctly predicted all but one presidential election since 1984. He missed 2024 outright and his 2000 call for Gore is disputed as it matched the popular vote winner but not the Electoral College outcome. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keys_… en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allan_Lic… washingtonian.com/2026/10/27/the…
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Stuart Rothenberg retweeted
Bradley Wascher (@bradwascher) profile picture
Bradley Wascher@bradwascherNov 2
My final pre-election update for @InsideElections: COUNTY-LEVEL BENCHMARKS in over a dozen key states! To win statewide, a candidate would need to outperform these numbers by at least one vote across the state Spreadsheet with everything: docs.google.com/spreadsheets… Maps below🧵
2026 Election Benchmarks by County in Senate Battlegrounds

2026 Election Benchmarks by County in Senate Battlegrounds

docs.google.com
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Stuart Rothenberg retweeted
Greg Dworkin (@DemFromCT) profile picture
Greg Dworkin@DemFromCTNov 2
One of the best
Henry Olsen (@henryolsenEPPC) profile pictureHenry Olsen
@henryolsenEPPCNov 2
My biennial prediction essay is up! Read it now, only @PostOpinions! washingtonpost.com/opinions/…
Opinion | A terrible night awaits the GOP, and even that might be an understatement

Opinion | A terrible night awaits the GOP, and even that might be an understatement

My final midterm prediction is a Democratic House and Senate.

washingtonpost.com
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Still looks like this is going to be a tsunami election for the Democrats.
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It’s over. Been over for at least the past few weeks. A Democratic flip.
Jonathan Martin (@jmart) profile pictureJonathan Martin
@jmartOct 21
This is at least the third Fox poll that has had Sherrod over 50%
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Roll Call (@rollcall) profile picture
Roll Call
@rollcallOct 16
New Democrat Coalition looks to boost ranks and build clout rollcall.com/2026/10/16/new-…
New Dems look to boost ranks and build clout - Roll Call

New Dems look to boost ranks and build clout - Roll Call

New Dems look to boost ranks and build clout -

rollcall.com
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Rick Wilson (@TheRickWilson) profile picture
Rick Wilson
@TheRickWilsonOct 9
This is the way.
Medium Buying (@MediumBuying) profile pictureMedium Buying
@MediumBuyingOct 8
#OHSen: Former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) is up on TV with this response/contrast spot -- Male voiceover: "Seen these ads? They're a complete lie. Records show not only is this woman actually from Texas, she didn't have any surgery as a minor" "But, Jon Husted? He protected men who abused young girls by voting in the Senate to block the release of the Epstein files"
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It’s a tsunami.
Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) profile pictureDave Wasserman
@RedistrictOct 9
A decent way to think about 2026: many of the places that have swung the most towards Republicans during the Trump era (Iowa, Ohio, Wisconsin, south TX, north country of NY) are the places we could see some of the biggest pro-Dem swings this year.
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Stuart Rothenberg retweeted
Sarah Ferris (@sarahnferris) profile picture
Sarah Ferris@sarahnferrisOct 3
News: House Rs are entering triage mode and are now discussing pulling $ from three of their toughest races: Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks in Iowa, Rep. Tom Keane in New Jersey, and an open seat in Nebraska, per 3 sources w/ @DavidWright_7 cnn.com/2026/10/03/politics/…
Republicans watch with alarm as Trump’s approval rating sinks in their own internal polling | CNN...

Republicans watch with alarm as Trump’s approval rating sinks in their own internal polling | CNN...

Four weeks to Election Day, a growing number of House Republicans privately fear their chances of holding onto the majority are vanishing and have begun focusing on how to limit the size of a...

cnn.com
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Stuart Rothenberg retweeted
The Lincoln Project (@ProjectLincoln) profile picture
The Lincoln Project
@ProjectLincolnSep 22
Fox News (!) shifted 15 races towards Dems. @JenKiggans @billhuizenga @MainePaulLePage we're coming
Image from The Lincoln Project (@ProjectLincoln)
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Stuart Rothenberg retweeted
Jon Cooper 🇺🇸 (@joncoopertweets) profile picture
Jon Cooper 🇺🇸
@joncoopertweetsSep 21
🚨BREAKING: The Ohio governor’s race has shifted sharply in favor of Democrat Amy Acton. Vivek Ramaswamy has crashed to a record low in the odds to win this critical race. Amy Acton is now favored at 58%. Learn more about Amy and donate here: actonforgovernor.com
🤝 Paid partnership
Image from Jon Cooper 🇺🇸 (@joncoopertweets)
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Given the public polls and the partisan wave’s dynamic, it would be surprising if the Senate doesn’t flip.
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