Free markets for a free America. 🇺🇸 📈 Created by @FlipPidot and @realTomBayes
Joined September 2024
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The SuperModel and Bayesian Supercycle have joined forces as The Supercycle.
Everyone welcome @realTomBayes!
Today, I'm excited to announce @supercycleblog — the future of prediction market media.
This effort combines top writers across the industry, including @FlipPidot, @HarryDCrane, and myself.
Welcome to the ultimate signal. Read more here: itsnotgambling.substack.com/…
Today's guest post by Uniswap's @alanwu: "Prediction Markets Need Indices"
Read it here: supercycle.blog/p/prediction…
Be sure to read @alanwu's piece on the @supercycleblog:
"An individual market can answer whether the Strait’s traffic goes back to normal this year. An index can tell you whether the Middle East is getting more stable.
Prediction markets price the events everyone’s watching.
Indices will answer the questions everyone’s asking."
We couldn't agree more.
supercycle.blog/p/prediction…
The Supercycle retweeted
Be sure to read @alanwu's piece on the @supercycleblog:
"An individual market can answer whether the Strait’s traffic goes back to normal this year. An index can tell you whether the Middle East is getting more stable.
Prediction markets price the events everyone’s watching.
Indices will answer the questions everyone’s asking."
We couldn't agree more.
supercycle.blog/p/prediction…
The Supercycle retweeted
High Roller Technologies ($ROLR) welcomes Flip Pidot (@FlipPidot) as Chief Business Officer!
With 17+ years of prediction markets experience, Flip will lead business development and strategic partnerships for ROLR.
Read more: bit.ly/4dER7rs
The Supercycle retweeted
.@theojaffee: "The idea behind New Media is just to create media that is unapologetically positive towards technology."
"Technology is one of the greatest levers that humanity has ever had for improving it's own material living conditions."
Full episode in comments 👇
BREAKING INDUSTRY UPDATE: Gaeten Dugas, top Kalshi trader, refers to Dustin Gouker as the "Joker" of prediction markets.
Do you think prediction markets are incredible?
Do you think @DustinGouker is not?
Join our new Telegram group -- Blocked by Dustin Gouker -- for high-signal prediction market discussion and advocacy.
t.me/+eXdart0gKMpkZGNh
Kalshi weekly notional volume has passed $13B.
Dune puts the latest reading at $13.08B, up 23.2% week over week.
Notional volume is not revenue or open interest. It measures contracts traded—a direct gauge of market activity.
dune.com/queries/5802836
Kalshi weekly notional volume just crossed $10B.
Dune puts the latest reading at $10.62B, up 29.6% week over week.
Notional volume is not revenue or open interest. It measures contracts traded—a direct gauge of market activity.
dune.com/queries/5802836
BREAKING: Tarek Mansour learns about his own company on The Supercycle
Kalshi just cleared $8B in weekly notional volume.
Dune puts the latest reading at $8.20B, up 26.8% week over week.
Notional volume is not revenue or open interest. It measures contracts traded—a direct gauge of market activity.
dune.com/queries/5802836
Kalshi just cleared $8B in weekly notional volume.
Dune puts the latest reading at $8.20B, up 26.8% week over week.
Notional volume is not revenue or open interest. It measures contracts traded—a direct gauge of market activity.
dune.com/queries/5802836
Prediction-market open interest reached $1.87B.
Dune shows outstanding positions up 22%, with Kalshi at $1.33B after a 16% rise.
Open interest is not trading volume. It measures capital still committed to open positions.
dune.com/queries/6696134
The Supercycle retweeted
BREAKING: Caroline Ellison, former CEO of Alameda Research, has a new gig:
manifund.substack.com/p/caro…
ESMA puts EU authorization at the heart of prediction markets’ next growth phase.
Its report says major platforms lack authorization generally needed to sell EU event contracts.
Not a ban; clear compliance routes now matter for access and liquidity.
esma.europa.eu/sites/default…
Connecticut just widened its prediction-market crackdown beyond platforms.
The state issued cease-and-desist orders to nine companies—including Polymarket, Coinbase, Crypto.com, Robinhood, Webull and Gemini—over sports event contracts. It also sent nearly 30 subpoenas to gaming-service providers, media companies, app stores and payment firms.
The move does not decide the federal-versus-state jurisdiction question. But it turns that conflict into a distribution-and-infrastructure issue, making clear why durable rules and responsible market plumbing are essential for legitimate prediction markets to scale.
portal.ct.gov/governor/news/…
Prediction markets gained a public-markets on-ramp. Tema’s DICE ETF began trading on Cboe, with private Kalshi and Polymarket exposure via SPVs.
It gives investors a liquid way to track the sector’s infrastructure and operators.
temaetfs.com/DICE
Kalshi’s weekly notional volume jumped 63.1% to $4.91 billion, according to Dune data.
That scale matters: rising liquidity gives prediction-market prices a stronger claim to be useful signals, not just novelty trades.
dune.com/queries/5802836
Kalshi has acquired Oddpool, a YC-backed prediction-market data startup that raised a $3m seed.
It’s an infrastructure bet: data tools closer to the exchange can make markets more useful to businesses and professional traders.
linkedin.com/posts/activity-…
The 10th Circuit denied Kalshi’s emergency bid, clearing Utah to enforce gambling laws during the appeal.
It sharpens the industry’s central challenge: durable, workable rules instead of a fragmented state-by-state map.
cdcgaming.com/brief/utah-10t…
Robinhood chose OG.com as a prediction-markets platform partner and took an equity stake in its exchange engine.
A brokerage is backing the rails, not just listing contracts—a meaningful signal for access and liquidity.
crypto.com/us/company-news/r…
Korean police are summoning Polymarket users.
Gangwon police issued blanket notices to domestic users in a gambling investigation, Chosunbiz reports.
Clear rules are essential to distinguish legitimate event contracts from unlawful gambling.
biz.chosun.com/en/en-finance…
