Thierry Adant

Housing affordability is a capital allocation problem. Originations remain roughly half their 2021 peak. Construction lending remains capital-intensive. The binding constraint is the cost of credit. "Bitcoin Meets the Mortgage" examines bitcoin pledged as supplemental collateral alongside the home, through a lender's lens: 1. A second, liquid layer of collateral behind the loan 2. A positive selection signal and new origination volume 3. More bankable construction projects, addressing supply The borrower benefits follow. The paper argues this could meaningfully reduce interest rates and monthly payments. For lenders already making real estate loans, this is an extension of existing underwriting, not a new asset class. The property comes first. The bitcoin is extra backing. The market has already begun. The first bitcoin-backed conforming mortgages have been funded. Bitcoin as collateral is an innovation that can lead to better outcomes for borrowers, lenders and housing supply. The paper: batteryfinance.io/images/pdf… #HousingFinance #MortgageLending #Bitcoin #RealEstateFinance #HousingAffordability Views are my own. For informational purposes only. Not an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.

I read James Grant 's @WSJ review of "A Fabulous Debt" this weekend, and one bond in it has stayed with me. Read my article below! @GrantsPub #Credit #Bonds #Bitcoin #Macro #InstitutionalInvesting #PortfolioStrategy #LongTermInvesting

Housing policy: a small step in the right direction The 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act is now law. Federal housing policy has moved from subsidy toward removing barriers to production. We see that shift, not any single provision, as the headline. Read more in my latest article. #HousingPolicy #AffordableHousing #HousingSupply #ManufacturedHousing #RealEstatePolicy Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation. All views are those of the author and subject to change. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of capital.

I believe Bitcoin can make credit more affordable, more accessible, and more resilient. That was the focus of my recent keynote at the @Yield_Summit in Miami. I discussed how Bitcoin collateral can strengthen traditional credit structures by pairing underwritable cash flows with liquid, transparent collateral. In a market where higher rates and tight spreads continue to challenge traditional credit models, Bitcoin collateral is one structural approach being explored to potentially improve borrower outcomes while reinforcing lender protection. Sharing the full keynote recording below. youtu.be/KJ1EKHu4C98?si=RAJB… #DigitalAssetYieldSummit #Bitcoin #PrivateCredit Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation. All views are those of the author, subject to change, and investing involves risk, including possible loss of capital.

Volatility is the price of admission for any emerging asset class, and this past week was a reminder of what that means in practice. Bitcoin fell sharply, sizable ETF outflows dominated the headlines, and the familiar round of obituaries followed — including a Bloomberg piece declaring its "inflation-hedge promise in tatters." It's worth separating the short-term price action from the longer-running debate about what Bitcoin actually is. Bitcoin has never behaved as a short-term inflation hedge, and it isn't immune to shifts in market risk premiums. Drawdowns of this magnitude are part of its historical pattern, not a departure from it. The more interesting conversation is about its structural characteristics: a scarce, capped-supply, non-sovereign digital asset with an adoption curve that continues to develop across several distinct areas: • Cross-border settlement use cases, where proponents point to speed and cost advantages relative to legacy rails. • Emerging interest in programmable payment layers built around Bitcoin, including discussion of machine-to-machine and API-driven transaction models. • Use as a savings vehicle in jurisdictions experiencing significant currency debasement. • Growing role as collateral in both Bitcoin-native and traditional lending markets. The asymmetry is straightforward: expanding demand against a fixed supply. That is the structural case. It is not a risk-free one. Custody and security, a regulatory framework still being written across jurisdictions, liquidity that compresses under stress, concentration and counterparty exposure in lending markets, and continued price volatility are real and enduring. A credible thesis prices those risks in rather than around them. The honest framing isn't whether Bitcoin succeeded or failed this week — it's what role a scarce, globally portable asset should play in a portfolio. bloomberg.com/news/articles/… #Bitcoin #DigitalAssets #Macro #InstitutionalInvesting #PortfolioStrategy #LongTermInvesting Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation. All views are those of the author, subject to change, and investing involves risk, including possible loss of capital.

Late-cycle re-risking should not be about seeking more risk. It is a problem of finding the right shape of risk. In our view, tight spreads are a signal to take portfolio action. Today there is growing interest in distressed, special situations, and cyclical beta. These opportunities carry a larger left tail, and the market is pricing them accordingly. Active managers can navigate the increased risk, though outcomes vary. The fundamental question is whether there is an alternative to reaching. Geometric returns are shaped by the distribution of potential outcomes. An investment with a bounded downside and asymmetric upside is structured to compound over time. A position with the same expected return but a fatter left tail is not. Quality gives a credit position the right shape — senior position, real collateral, durable cash flows, and embedded optionality that can turn a linear return into a convex one. Finding that shape is a function of innovation and disciplined underwriting: resilient cash flows, inflation linkage, and a hard asset base. The alternative — reaching for yield by moving down in credit quality or up in leverage — has a different shape. Higher headline number, fatter left tail, realized return dependent on capturing the average outcome. A portfolio that re-risks thoughtfully through the cycle is positioned to compound, because the structure is designed to support it. #PrivateCredit #CreditInvesting #PortfolioConstruction #RiskManagement #AlternativeInvestments This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation. All views are those of the author, are subject to change without notice, and may not reflect the views of the firm. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of capital.

Higher rates. Compressed spreads. Eroded return drivers. The industry's reflex has been weaker underwriting or another turn of leverage. Neither expands the credit frontier — they only stretch it. Once a generation, a new asset rewrites the credit stack. High-yield. Securitization. Private credit. Bitcoin is next. On Monday in Miami, I'm keynoting the Digital Asset Yield Summit (@Yield_Summit) — "Milken Moment for Bitcoin: Rewriting the Credit Stack." Drawing on what we underwrite at Battery Finance: fused collateral that compresses borrower rates and strengthens lender protection at the same time — and what that unlocks across affordability, access, and resilience in credit. Three revolutions changed credit. Bitcoin is the fourth. #DigitalAssetYieldSummit #Bitcoin #PrivateCreditDisclaimer This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation. All views are those of the author, subject to change, and investing involves risk, including possible loss of capital.

I recently joined the @REstandardPod with @ChrisDrz, @TimKotzman and @kenny_alves for a conversation on commercial real estate and financial innovation. Real estate is the largest asset class in the world — and arguably one of the most overdue for a structural upgrade. Higher interest rates, rising cost pressures, tighter credit conditions, and broader market disruption are steadily eroding traditional return drivers. The old playbook is losing relevance. Pairing the income durability of real estate with Bitcoin as a distinct asset class has become an active topic of discussion across capital markets. The podcast explored the considerations and trade-offs involved when these asset classes are analyzed together. Rather than reaching for yield through weaker underwriting or incremental leverage, these structures point to a more disciplined path forward: income grounded in real estate fundamentals, combined with Bitcoin exposure. This is the type of forward-looking dialogue the industry needs as real estate enters a period of deeper structural change. #RealEstate #CommercialRealEstate #PrivateCredit #Bitcoin #FinancialInnovation

Bitcoin as Financial Infrastructure Bitcoin from a vantage point beyond traditional financial frameworks. Not predictive—but allocative. Bitcoin is increasingly being evaluated as a distinct system within capital markets and as an asset providing exposure to that system. Operating through a fixed set of rules and economic incentives, it continuously directs energy toward its most efficient marginal producers, enforces monetary constraints without discretion, and enables global value settlement without reliance on traditional intermediaries. Within this framework, intelligence is characterized not by cognition, but by the consistent translation of information into coordinated economic outcomes. Bitcoin performs this function through market mechanisms: price reflects aggregate information, competition drives efficiency, and difficulty adjustment maintains system balance. The result is a system that operates without management, policy intervention, or counterparty dependency, and has demonstrated persistence under sustained adversarial conditions. As such, it may be more appropriately considered a form of financial infrastructure, with potential to incrementally displace elements of sovereign debt (monetary premium), payment networks (fee capture), and banking intermediation (spread-based revenues), thereby reallocating both capital and associated cash flows. Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation. All views are those of the author, subject to change, and investing involves risk, including possible loss of capital. #Bitcoin #FinancialInfrastructure #CapitalMarkets

Amazon has become one of the most formidable names in global credit. According to @Bloomberg, Amazon’s latest bond deal was met with strong investor demand, even for long-dated maturities out to 50 years...with a yield of c6%! That should make people pause. At these levels, investors aren’t just buying Amazon — they’re underwriting a 50-year macro view: • Inflation stays anchored for decades • Sovereign credit deterioration doesn’t reprice risk • Duration at these levels remains attractive All of this… in a market defined by heavy issuance and structurally weaker government balance sheets. As Robert Tipp recently noted: “We’re in an environment of heavy issuance and a secular decline in credit quality of government securities.” So what’s really driving this demand? Conviction in long-term stability — or a willingness to overlook inflation and credit risk in search of yield? Because 50 years is a long time to be wrong. Link: bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation. All views are those of the author, subject to change, and investing involves risk, including possible loss of capital. #CreditMarkets #Duration #Inflation #MacroStrategy

Great discussion at @PennBlockchain Conference on Bitcoin’s next phase of evolution—spanning development, capital markets, and real-world adoption. A few clear takeaways: innovation at both the protocol and application layers continues to accelerate; capital markets are increasingly embracing Bitcoin, unlocking new structures and sources of liquidity; and the convergence with AI and emerging use cases is expanding the design space well beyond the traditional store-of-value narrative. With these foundations in place, 2026 feels like a pivotal moment—where the conditions are aligning for a new wave of financial innovation built on Bitcoin. It was especially encouraging to see such thoughtful dialogue and strong conviction from the next generation helping shape the future of the space. I appreciated the opportunity to share perspectives alongside an outstanding group of panelists: Maxime Bucaille, Andre Serrano, and Kevin Li. Sincere thanks to Catrina Wang and Winnie Wang for hosting an exceptional conference! #Bitcoin #DigitalAssets #CapitalMarkets #FinancialInnovation Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation. All views are those of the author, subject to change, and investing involves risk, including possible loss of capital.

AI Has Moved Into Production. Most Valuation Frameworks Have Not. AI is no longer in experimentation. It's in production — and it's showing up in cash flows. Meta is cutting ~16,000 roles while doubling AI capex to $135B ¹. Amazon has eliminated 30,000+ corporate positions — CEO Andy Jassy wrote that AI will "reduce our total corporate workforce" ². Klarna went from 7,000 employees to 3,000 — their AI assistant handled the workload of 700 agents in its first month ³. Shopify's CEO published a company-wide memo requiring teams to prove AI can't do the job before any hire is approved ⁴. But displacement is only half the story. Duolingo's CEO says AI has made employees 4-5x more productive — without a single full-time layoff ⁵. Stripe is growing headcount, using AI to offer dedicated account teams to every customer, not just enterprise ⁶. JPMorgan reports AI-driven productivity gains of 6% firm-wide, with expectations of 40-50% in operations roles ⁷. For allocators, this creates a two-lane highway. Companies leveraging AI to amplify their workforce will see revenue per employee inflect upward. Companies that don't will face margin compression against those that did. Valuation frameworks built on historical labor assumptions are mispricing businesses today. When a company can grow revenue while shrinking headcount — or multiply output without adding cost — the relationship between growth, margins, and enterprise value changes. The repricing has already started. Sources: ¹ Meta Q4 2025 Earnings Report ² Amazon CEO Andy Jassy, Letter to Employees ³ Klarna, Official Press Release / OpenAI Case Study ⁴ Shopify CEO Tobi Lütke, Internal Memo (published on X) ⁵ Duolingo CEO Luis von Ahn, LinkedIn ⁶ Stripe CEO Patrick Collison, Stripe Sessions 2025 ⁷ JPMorgan Chase, Marianne Lake — Goldman Sachs Financial Services Conference #AI #Innovation #BusinessStrategy #CapitalMarkets Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation. All views are those of the author, subject to change, and investing involves risk, including possible loss of capital.

You cannot print Oil and Gas. The Iran conflict and heightened risk across the Strait of Hormuz are delivering a real-time supply shock to global energy markets. Oil and gas reprice everything — food, freight, chemicals, manufacturing inputs. The pass-through is total and it is already underway. This shock arrives into an economy that was already structurally fragile: sovereign debt at historic highs, persistent fiscal deficits, and central banks with limited room to tighten without triggering refinancing crises. Inflation was never fully resolved. It is now being re-accelerated by the one input no economy can substitute away from. The cost of everything is going up. The tools to address it are running out. You cannot print Bitcoin either. 21 million. No emergency issuance. No dilution. No dependency on shipping lanes or geopolitical stability. Mathematically scarce in an environment where monetary expansion remains the only politically viable response to rising debt and rising prices. Two assets you cannot print. One is reminding the world why scarcity commands a premium. The other was built for exactly this moment. Link: bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation. All views are those of the author, subject to change, and investing involves risk, including possible loss of capital. #Oil #Inflation #Geopolitics #Bitcoin #InstitutionalInvesting #CapitalMarkets