Caveat emptor, often fighting lost causes. Like drunks use of lamp post, most use me for support, not illumination. Not financial advice just to be clear... 🕊️
Joined June 2014
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US semiconductor inflation is rising by >30% y/y. Here's a chart to show y'all how unprecedented this is, and it is killing a lot of consumer electronic demand. Cheap as chips ?
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US commodity cost inflation continues to accelerate in October (indeed even rising sequentially m/m). Staggered nature of supply-chain means 🇺🇸 consumers will likely face higher goods costs six months down the line, even if with 🔻 inflection now. Staggering
IEA definitely trying to placate #oil markets with astonishing crude🛢️oversupply f/cast for 2027. Gulf crude exports in October c.-15% from pre-war level (mostly 🇮🇷) but implication is refined products comp still -50% lower. Damage (collateral)
US existing home sales in Oct. fell by double-digits (-11.7% y/y) as suggested👇. Never have so many Americans been in gainful employment for so long and not been able to afford to move up. Golden (C)age
US existing home sales revised lower for August and fell modestly in September. US 30yr FRMs in October are >100bps higher than same time last year. Implies double-digit decline in 🇺🇸 #housing transactions. Paralysis
NB. Values separate topic (supply-demand differential)
US 🚗 consumers paying through nose for their patriotism. Of course Americans have voted with their feet👇buying > foreign, yet crucially 🇺🇸 automakers margins have been protected (see my TL). Trump may seem populist but am not sure he ever was. Biz > folk
nitter.cf/takis2910/status/21183…
Worth noting foreign automakers outperforming 🇺🇸domestic players due to their penchant for heavy gas-guzzlers. #MAGA faithful have been losing long before Nov midterms when voting for new car. Sad
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US services inflation (ex shelter & insurance) is accelerating by a pace unseen in over 3½ yrs. Fertile ground for AI labs offering their services. 👇Dis inflation
US consumer inflation rose by 4.0% and core rate accelerated by 2.8% in Oct. Simple interpolation of prior year data (either using index or dy/dx rate) comes to same conclusion. Maybe 🇺🇸 softens from here but its shame we dare not say where we are. 🙊nitter.cf/takis2910/status/21187…
US #NFP additions grew in Oct. but breadth worsened as 5 industries fell. We wont get 🇺🇸 inflation rate (shutdown🎂) but interpolation implies 4% so real earnings 💩. Notably quantum of🔵collar workers across mining, manuf. & constr. falling ; its ⚪️collar doing work. AI Paradox
US #NFP additions grew in Oct. but breadth worsened as 5 industries fell. We wont get 🇺🇸 inflation rate (shutdown🎂) but interpolation implies 4% so real earnings 💩. Notably quantum of🔵collar workers across mining, manuf. & constr. falling ; its ⚪️collar doing work. AI Paradox
McDonalds saw 🇺🇸 LFL sales underperform in contrast to both developed & emerging int'l markets, only in Q3 domestic 🍔sales were flat as a patty (-0.2%). Strip out inflation and demand went really negative. $MCD Arch
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German manufacturing output jumped 0.7% m/m in Sept, 🔺annually for 1st time in 8mths. Reflects 🇩🇪 PMI but imo with > granular & accurate info. Confirms automaking & industrials aren't dead (also $LXS yday👇). Exaggerated rumours (Twain)
nitter.cf/takis2910/status/21182…
German specialty chemicals producer Lanxess beat 3Q earnings expectations thx to firm pricing & positive vols. Narrowing $LXS EBITDA FY'26 guidance to upper-end of range (🇩🇪 prudence) suggests current €90m 4Q EBITDA est. should be revised to >€100m. Specialty
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Global manufacturing output growth actually edging higher despite high cost of borrow and economists' low bar (IMF #WEO). Historically tangible goods activity, or "cargo" as Jared Diamond might call it, correlates with 🌍 GDP. Perspective #NewNormal
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Colgate organic volume growth across its key regions. How much fluoride is there in 🇺🇸 taps? Boulevard of Broken 🦷. Walk alone $CL
open.spotify.com/track/1hwJK…
European Oct new car sales +4% y/y (+6% ytd) in part thx to influx of cheap cars & BEV incentives (both Mercs & Beemers matched growth benchmark). Consider US 🚗 demand rose +3% (-2% ytd), Japan -3% (+2% ytd) & China comps -29% (-22% ytd). Meek (shall inherit earth)
Worth noting foreign automakers outperforming 🇺🇸domestic players due to their penchant for heavy gas-guzzlers. #MAGA faithful have been losing long before Nov midterms when voting for new car. Sad
US brewer Molson Coors finds there is less demand on $TAP as it cuts FY26 earnings. Not been a fan of 🇺🇸 beer for sometime and its been interesting to watch both mgt guidance & Wall Str analysts' expectations run ahead of themselves. Sobering🍻
German specialty chemicals producer Lanxess beat 3Q earnings expectations thx to firm pricing & positive vols. Narrowing $LXS EBITDA FY'26 guidance to upper-end of range (🇩🇪 prudence) suggests current €90m 4Q EBITDA est. should be revised to >€100m. Specialty
US rehiring growth momentum bodes well for nonfarm payrolls, or at least puts helps assuage fear of 🇺🇸 jobs fallout. Real wage still a concern and a drag on consumer confidence, likely to be manifested in #MidtermElections2026 results. Give 'n take
