CEO @thetara_group, Sr Advisor @TargetSmart, former @HowardU, @claritycampaign, @ncec1948, @SEIULocal500. DM inquiries
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I'll be writing more about the battleground states soon, but I started with Arizona, as I believe there's lots for Dems to learn open.substack.com/pub/tombon…
Gosh, who could have predicted that the guy who did these things:
- Companies had 6 bankruptcies
- Convicted of 34 felonies for falsifying business records
- Faced a $350 million judgement for business fraud (thrown out once he was president)
Would destroy our economy?
Mortgage rates have climbed to their highest level in 20 months as rising fuel prices and heightened inflation risks weigh on financial markets.
abcnews.link/VVEabij
Seeing this poll showing Trump cratering with Gen Z voters made me curious to look at voter reg trends in key states, from when Trump took office last year to our most recent file updates. In the past we've seen Gen Z less likely to register as Dems. Starting with PA...
This is one reason why I believe some of the political handicappers are underestimating the Dem wave (relative to the political modelers) - they seem to be assuming a uniform shift from Trump margins, which will not be the case. Hispanic districts will shift much more to Dems.
NYT's Nate Cohn:
A strong erosion of Trump's support with Hispanic voters imperils the party in more than a dozen districts Trump won by double digits, while cueing up Texas and Florida to "become ground zero for a possible Democratic tsunami"
nytimes.com/2026/09/22/upsho…
This is a good caution. The reality is, there will be poll error. It could be in either direction (or both, depending on the state, though it tends to happen mostly in one direction).
With more Dems planning to vote in early in person than by mail (for obvious reasons), be prepared for bad faith analysis from GOPs comparing Dem vote by mail to 2022 to suggest Dem enthusiasm is lagging. axios.com/2026/09/20/midterm…
Definitely a sign of a healthy democracy led by a person with nothing to hide.
BREAKING: President Trump says he is banning CNN, MSNOW and Politico from the White House over their coverage. apnews.com/article/trump-cnn…
In case anyone needed a measure of just how badly GOPs have shot themselves in the foot this year - at the beginning of the '26, GOPs were outregistering Dems in Iowa among white voters by a 20 pt margin. In recent weeks, Dems have actually outregistered GOPs among white Iowans.
Sure, gas prices (esp diesel) are skyrocketing, bringing consumer goods prices with them, but Congress is going home for the next several weeks, all to save Pete Hegseth from a little accountability.
#BREAKING: House cuts week short, will leave DC on Wednesday
thehill.com/homenews/house/6…
Our team @TargetSmart has some very cool poll data to share in the coming days.
A few weeks ago I mentioned that the team produced a historic update to the voter file, substantially increasing data coverage due to a breakthrough in matching technology.
targetsmart.com/what-the-vot…
So, with these great advances in data coverage, our polling team set out to determine where these key voters are as we enter the final stretch of this election. They conducted a survey of young voters and voters of color - it's fascinating data.