
Analisis tecnico ๐, trader, mercados ๐ฆ๐ท ๐ง๐ท ๐บ๐ธ y research. No soy asesor financiero. Escribo para @forbesargentina y @ilfoglio_it
Joined February 2018
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BTG: CENTRAL BANK SHOULD KEEP INTEREST RATES UNCHANGED, MAINTAIN MONETARY RESTRICTION AND WAIT FOR GREATER CLARITY ON THE OUTLOOK
BTG: CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS OVER THE ECONOMIC TEAM AND THE POLICIES TO BE IMPLEMENTED
BTG: SELECTION OF THE ECONOMIC TEAM WILL PROVIDE THE FIRST MEANINGFUL SIGNAL ABOUT FISCAL POLICY
BTG: MAGNITUDE OF MARKET DETERIORATION AND RISING RISK PREMIUMS WILL DEPEND ON THE ECONOMIC POLICIES ADOPTED
BTG: TIGHTER FINANCIAL CONDITIONS INCREASE THE RISK OF A SHARPER ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN
BTG: CURRENT ENVIRONMENT REQUIRES A MONETARY POLICY RESPONSE, LIMITING ROOM FOR FINE-TUNING INTEREST RATES
BTG: HIGHER RISK PREMIUMS FROM FISCAL CONCERNS HAVE ADDED TO SUPPLY SHOCKS
BTG: WARNS OF FURTHER DEANCHORING OF INFLATION EXPECTATIONS FOR 2027 AND LONGER HORIZONS
BTG: INFLATION RISKS FOR 2027 HAVE RISEN AMID OIL ABOVE $100, THE END OF THE 6X1 WORK SCHEDULE AND FX PRESSURES
BTG: EXPECTS SELIC RATE TO REMAIN AT 13.75% THROUGH YEAR-END 2027
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BBG: LULA DA SILVA'S FISCAL PLANS ARE SHAPED BY MEMORIES OF DILMA ROUSSEFF'S 2014 COLLAPSE
BBG: ECONOMIC TEAM DEBATES GRADUAL FISCAL ADJUSTMENT TARGETING A PRIMARY SURPLUS OF 1.5% OF GDP BY THE END OF LULA'S TERM
BBG: BRAZIL'S NOMINAL FISCAL DEFICIT REMAINS NEAR 10% OF GDP AS PUBLIC DEBT REACHES RECORD LEVELS
BBG: LULA'S INSISTENCE ON PURSUING A DIFFERENT PATH FROM MARKET DEMANDS RAISES CONCERNS WITHIN HIS OWN TEAM
BBG: CURRENT APPROACH RULES OUT DRASTIC SOCIAL SPENDING CUTS SIMILAR TO THE ABRUPT AUSTERITY SHIFT OF THE PAST
BBG: PROPOSED FISCAL TARGETS FALL SHORT OF INVESTORS' EXPECTATIONS AND KEY DEMANDS
$YPF ๐ฆ๐ท
JPM: CUTS YPF PRICE TARGET TO $60.50 PER SHARE FROM $66, MAINTAINS OVERWEIGHT RATING
JPM: VALUATION CHANGE REFLECTS A LOWER BRENT OUTLOOK AND A 1.1% INCREASE IN THE RISK-FREE RATE
JPM: YPF VALUATION USES A SUM-OF-THE-PARTS APPROACH AND MODELS 10 YEARS OF SHALE DRILLING ACTIVITY
JPM: YPF MODEL ASSUMES UNCONVENTIONAL OIL PRODUCTION WILL REACH 250,000 BARRELS PER DAY BY 2027
JPM: POTENTIAL UPSIDE CATALYSTS INCLUDE THE REMOVAL OF CAPITAL CONTROLS AND THE FLOATING LNG PROJECT
JPM: KEY DOWNSIDE RISKS INCLUDE DIVERGENCE FROM INTERNATIONAL OIL PRICES AND MIDSTREAM INFRASTRUCTURE CONSTRAINTS
$VIST ๐ฆ๐ท
JPM: CUTS VISTA PRICE TARGET TO $87 PER SHARE FROM $94, REFLECTING A LOWER BRENT OUTLOOK AND HIGHER RISK-FREE RATE
JPM: MAINTAINS OVERWEIGHT RATING ON VISTA, SUPPORTED BY ITS LEADERSHIP IN VACA MUERTA
JPM: WEIGHTED AVERAGE COST OF CAPITAL USED FOR VISTA'S VALUATION STANDS AT 9.8%
JPM: RAISES 3Q26 EBITDA ESTIMATES FOR BOTH COMPANIES UNDER COVERAGE
JPM: VISTA'S CONCESSIONS ARE VALUED USING A DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW MODEL EXTENDING THROUGH 2054
JPM: TRANSPORTATION AND MIDSTREAM CONSTRAINTS REMAIN AMONG THE KEY POTENTIAL RISKS TO THE GROWTH THESIS
๐ง๐ท
SANTANDER: MARKET HAS CORRECTED SHARPLY, BUT FUNDAMENTALS HAVE NOT NECESSARILY BOTTOMED OUT
SANTANDER: HIGHER COST OF EQUITY AND WEAKER CREDIT DYNAMICS SUGGEST FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS
SANTANDER: FAVORS QUALITY ASSETS, DIVERSIFICATION AND DEFENSIVE CHARACTERISTICS
SANTANDER: HIGHLIGHTS CASH, INSURANCE AND ITAร UNIBANCO AS A MORE DEFENSIVE WAY TO NAVIGATE MARKETS
SANTANDER: LATIN AMERICA'S RELATIVE INVESTMENT APPEAL HAS LIKELY DECLINED
SANTANDER: BRAZIL'S POSITION AS A REGIONAL INVESTMENT FOCUS MAY HAVE WEAKENED
SANTANDER: BRAZIL COULD SEE LOWER ALLOCATIONS FROM GLOBAL LONG-ONLY INVESTORS
SANTANDER: HIGHER SELIC RATES MEAN HIGHER FUNDING COSTS AND WEAKER CREDIT GROWTH
SANTANDER: ITAร REMAINS RELATIVELY WELL POSITIONED, SUPPORTED BY RISK MANAGEMENT AND DIVERSIFICATION
SANTANDER: BTG ALSO APPEARS STRUCTURALLY BETTER POSITIONED THAN MOST BANKS
SANTANDER: BANKS MORE SENSITIVE TO HIGHER SELIC RATES, SUCH AS BRADESCO, MAY BE VULNERABLE
SANTANDER: HIGHER INTEREST RATES SHOULD SUPPORT INSURERS' FINANCIAL RESULTS
SANTANDER: NUBANK BECOMES AN INVESTMENT THESIS THAT NEEDS TO DELIVER RESULTS AMID HIGHER FUNDING COSTS
SANTANDER: CAPITAL MARKET RECOVERY LOOKS MORE DISTANT, WEIGHING ON B3 AND XP
$INTC
Intel Q3 Adj. EPS $0.52 Beats $0.40 Estimate, Sales $16.513B Beat $16.467B Estimate
Intel Sees Q4 Adj EPS $0.25 vs $0.43 Est; Sees Sales $15.000B-$16.000B vs $17.045B Est
$AMZN
Amazon.com Q3 EPS $1.89 Misses $1.97 Estimate, Sales $201.944B Miss $202.308B Estimate
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GAVEKAL: BRAZIL'S ELECTION AND THE SUBSEQUENT VIOLENT MARKET MOVES HAVE DOMINATED HEADLINES
GAVEKAL: INVESTORS WILL LIKELY REDUCE RISK AHEAD OF ELECTIONS FOLLOWING BRAZIL'S EXPERIENCE
GAVEKAL: HOW MANY INVESTORS WILL FEEL COMFORTABLE REMAINING LONG ARGENTINA AHEAD OF ITS ELECTION?
GAVEKAL: THIS WEEK'S MARKET SHOCK IN BRAZIL COULD CAST A LONGER, DARKER SHADOW
GAVEKAL: THE MAIN LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL FOR BRAZIL IS THAT BONDS, EQUITIES AND THE CURRENCY ARE NOW CHEAPER
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GS: BRAZIL'S CONSOLIDATED PUBLIC SECTOR POSTED A BRL 5.5BN DEFICIT IN SEPTEMBER, EXCEEDING MARKET EXPECTATIONS
GS: OVERALL PUBLIC SECTOR FISCAL DEFICIT STANDS AT AN ELEVATED 9.5% OF GDP
GS: FISCAL DEFICIT IS ON TRACK TO EXCEED 8% OF GDP IN EVERY YEAR OF THE LULA ADMINISTRATION
GS: GENERAL GOVERNMENT GROSS DEBT STANDS AT A HIGH 82.9% OF GDP, UP FROM 71.7% AT YEAR-END 2022
GS: LACK OF SPENDING CONTROL HAS UNDERMINED FISCAL TARGET CREDIBILITY AND CONTRIBUTED TO AN OVERHEATED, OVERINDEBTED ECONOMY
GS: STRUCTURAL PRIMARY FISCAL SURPLUSES ABOVE 2.5% OF GDP WOULD BE NEEDED TO LOWER THE NEUTRAL REAL INTEREST RATE, AN UNLIKELY NEAR-TERM SCENARIO
$EWZ ๐ง๐ท
BTG cree que Ibovespa puede caer otro 10% en USD...
Al final el ajuste lo hizo el mercado.
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BTG: IBOVESPA TRADES AT 7.7X FORWARD 12-MONTH P/E
BTG: SELIC COULD END 2027 ABOVE THE CURRENTLY PROJECTED 12.5% LEVEL
BTG: DESPITE THE MAGNITUDE OF MONDAY'S IBOVESPA DECLINE, THE BEARISH CORRECTION COULD CONTINUE
BTG: WITHOUT NEW DEVELOPMENTS, WE BELIEVE IBOVESPA COULD FALL ANOTHER 10% IN USD TERMS
BTG: EVEN IF IT DOES NOT FALL FURTHER, IBOVESPA COULD TRADE SIDEWAYS UNTIL THE GOVERNMENT ANNOUNCES ITS PLANS
BTG: EXPECTATIONS FOR A SIGNIFICANT FISCAL PACKAGE REMAIN LOW
BTG: A MORE LIMITED SET OF MEASURES COULD HELP STABILIZE EQUITIES AND LONG-TERM INTEREST RATES
๐ง๐ท
BTG: IBOVESPA TRADES AT 7.7X FORWARD 12-MONTH P/E
BTG: SELIC COULD END 2027 ABOVE THE CURRENTLY PROJECTED 12.5% LEVEL
BTG: DESPITE THE MAGNITUDE OF MONDAY'S IBOVESPA DECLINE, THE BEARISH CORRECTION COULD CONTINUE
BTG: WITHOUT NEW DEVELOPMENTS, WE BELIEVE IBOVESPA COULD FALL ANOTHER 10% IN USD TERMS
BTG: EVEN IF IT DOES NOT FALL FURTHER, IBOVESPA COULD TRADE SIDEWAYS UNTIL THE GOVERNMENT ANNOUNCES ITS PLANS
BTG: EXPECTATIONS FOR A SIGNIFICANT FISCAL PACKAGE REMAIN LOW
BTG: A MORE LIMITED SET OF MEASURES COULD HELP STABILIZE EQUITIES AND LONG-TERM INTEREST RATES
$PBR ๐ง๐ท
BTG: PETROBRAS OFFERS ATTRACTIVE RISK-REWARD; FCFE YIELD SEEN AT AROUND 13-16% IN 2027
BTG: EXPECTS UPWARD REVISION TO PETROBRAS PRODUCTION GUIDANCE; REFINING MARGINS REMAIN ROBUST
BTG: PETROBRAS SHOWS STRONG PRODUCTION MOMENTUM; RECENT FPSOS STILL RAMPING UP
BTG REITERATES BUY RATING ON PETROBRAS ADR WITH $26.00 PRICE TARGET
BTG: PETROBRAS QUARTER EXPECTED TO FEATURE ROBUST REFINING PROFITABILITY
BTG: PETROBRAS QUARTER EXPECTED TO BENEFIT FROM LOWER OIL PRICES AND WIDER DISCOUNTS
BTG: ESTIMATES PETROBRAS 3Q26 DIVIDENDS AT AROUND $3.6BN, WITH A 2.5% DIVIDEND YIELD
BTG: ESTIMATES PETROBRAS 3Q26 EBITDA AT AROUND $19BN AND CASH FLOW AT $4.9BN
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BOULOS: THOSE CALLING FOR LULA TO IMPLEMENT FISCAL ADJUSTMENT HAVE FAILED TO UNDERSTAND THE ELECTION RESULT
BOULOS: THE FINANCIAL MARKET'S CANDIDATE WAS DEFEATED AT THE BALLOT BOX BY POPULAR MOBILIZATION
BOULOS: FARIA LIMA'S CANDIDATE LOST AND FLED TO THE UNITED STATES
BOULOS: BRAZIL'S ECONOMIC AGENDA WILL BE SET BY THOSE WHO WON THE ELECTION, NOT THOSE WHO LOST!
$BMA ๐ฆ๐ท
BRADESCO: NEW BUYBACK PROGRAM PROVIDES SHORT-TERM SHARE PRICE SUPPORT BUT DOES NOT ADDRESS THE BANK'S EXCESS CAPITAL
BRADESCO: BANK HAS A HISTORY OF OPPORTUNISTIC SHARE BUYBACKS TRIGGERED BY STOCK PRICE DECLINES
BRADESCO: 30 MILLION SHARES WERE REPURCHASED IN 2018 AND SUBSEQUENTLY CANCELED
BRADESCO: A 30 MILLION-SHARE BUYBACK PROGRAM WORTH ARS 225BN WAS ANNOUNCED IN OCTOBER 2025 BUT SUSPENDED FOLLOWING THE POST-MIDTERM ELECTION RALLY
BRADESCO: NEW BUYBACK PROGRAM REPRESENTS APPROXIMATELY 2.5% OF OUTSTANDING SHARES AND 4% OF EXCESS CAPITAL
BRADESCO: RECURRING SHARE BUYBACKS AND HIGHER PAYOUTS IDENTIFIED AS KEY CATALYSTS FOR A REVALUATION OF CAPITAL ALLOCATION
$BMA ๐ฆ๐ท
Reported Earlier, Banco Macro Announces Share Repurchase Of Up To 20M Class B Shares, Up To Ps$10,700.00 Per Share, Over 45 Calendar Days
$BMA ๐ฆ๐ท
Reported Earlier, Banco Macro Announces Share Repurchase Of Up To 20M Class B Shares, Up To Ps$10,700.00 Per Share, Over 45 Calendar Days
$MSFT
Barclays Adjusts Price Target on Microsoft to $610 From $600
BofA Securities Adjusts Price Target on Microsoft to $630 From $600, Maintains Buy Rating
Citigroup Adjusts Price Target on Microsoft to $680 From $636
Morgan Stanley Adjusts Price Target on Microsoft to $650 From $600
Wells Fargo Adjusts Price Target on Microsoft to $750 From $725
$GOOGL
BNP Paribas Adjusts Price Target on Alphabet to $410 From $450
BofA Securities Adjusts Price Target on Alphabet to $380 From $430, Maintains Buy Rating
Deutsche Bank Adjusts Alphabet Price Target to $390 From $430, Maintains Buy Rating
JPMorgan Adjusts Price Target on Alphabet to $375 From $425
Morgan Stanley Adjusts Price Target on Alphabet to $375 From $400
RBC Cuts Price Target on Alphabet to $400 From $425, Keeps Outperform Rating
Wedbush Adjusts Price Target on Alphabet to $387 From $445, Keeps Outperform Rating

