๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ทTebb๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น (@tebb29) header
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ทTebb๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น (@tebb29) profile picture

Analisis tecnico ๐Ÿ“ˆ, trader, mercados ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ท ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ y research. No soy asesor financiero. Escribo para @forbesargentina y @ilfoglio_it

Joined February 2018
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท BTG: CENTRAL BANK SHOULD KEEP INTEREST RATES UNCHANGED, MAINTAIN MONETARY RESTRICTION AND WAIT FOR GREATER CLARITY ON THE OUTLOOK BTG: CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS OVER THE ECONOMIC TEAM AND THE POLICIES TO BE IMPLEMENTED BTG: SELECTION OF THE ECONOMIC TEAM WILL PROVIDE THE FIRST MEANINGFUL SIGNAL ABOUT FISCAL POLICY BTG: MAGNITUDE OF MARKET DETERIORATION AND RISING RISK PREMIUMS WILL DEPEND ON THE ECONOMIC POLICIES ADOPTED BTG: TIGHTER FINANCIAL CONDITIONS INCREASE THE RISK OF A SHARPER ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN BTG: CURRENT ENVIRONMENT REQUIRES A MONETARY POLICY RESPONSE, LIMITING ROOM FOR FINE-TUNING INTEREST RATES BTG: HIGHER RISK PREMIUMS FROM FISCAL CONCERNS HAVE ADDED TO SUPPLY SHOCKS BTG: WARNS OF FURTHER DEANCHORING OF INFLATION EXPECTATIONS FOR 2027 AND LONGER HORIZONS BTG: INFLATION RISKS FOR 2027 HAVE RISEN AMID OIL ABOVE $100, THE END OF THE 6X1 WORK SCHEDULE AND FX PRESSURES BTG: EXPECTS SELIC RATE TO REMAIN AT 13.75% THROUGH YEAR-END 2027
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๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท BBG: LULA DA SILVA'S FISCAL PLANS ARE SHAPED BY MEMORIES OF DILMA ROUSSEFF'S 2014 COLLAPSE BBG: ECONOMIC TEAM DEBATES GRADUAL FISCAL ADJUSTMENT TARGETING A PRIMARY SURPLUS OF 1.5% OF GDP BY THE END OF LULA'S TERM BBG: BRAZIL'S NOMINAL FISCAL DEFICIT REMAINS NEAR 10% OF GDP AS PUBLIC DEBT REACHES RECORD LEVELS BBG: LULA'S INSISTENCE ON PURSUING A DIFFERENT PATH FROM MARKET DEMANDS RAISES CONCERNS WITHIN HIS OWN TEAM BBG: CURRENT APPROACH RULES OUT DRASTIC SOCIAL SPENDING CUTS SIMILAR TO THE ABRUPT AUSTERITY SHIFT OF THE PAST BBG: PROPOSED FISCAL TARGETS FALL SHORT OF INVESTORS' EXPECTATIONS AND KEY DEMANDS
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$YPF ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ท JPM: CUTS YPF PRICE TARGET TO $60.50 PER SHARE FROM $66, MAINTAINS OVERWEIGHT RATING JPM: VALUATION CHANGE REFLECTS A LOWER BRENT OUTLOOK AND A 1.1% INCREASE IN THE RISK-FREE RATE JPM: YPF VALUATION USES A SUM-OF-THE-PARTS APPROACH AND MODELS 10 YEARS OF SHALE DRILLING ACTIVITY JPM: YPF MODEL ASSUMES UNCONVENTIONAL OIL PRODUCTION WILL REACH 250,000 BARRELS PER DAY BY 2027 JPM: POTENTIAL UPSIDE CATALYSTS INCLUDE THE REMOVAL OF CAPITAL CONTROLS AND THE FLOATING LNG PROJECT JPM: KEY DOWNSIDE RISKS INCLUDE DIVERGENCE FROM INTERNATIONAL OIL PRICES AND MIDSTREAM INFRASTRUCTURE CONSTRAINTS
$VIST $YPF ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ท JP Morgan Maintains Overweight on Vista Energy, Lowers Price Target to $87 JP Morgan Maintains Overweight on YPF, Lowers Price Target to $60.5
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$VIST ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ท JPM: CUTS VISTA PRICE TARGET TO $87 PER SHARE FROM $94, REFLECTING A LOWER BRENT OUTLOOK AND HIGHER RISK-FREE RATE JPM: MAINTAINS OVERWEIGHT RATING ON VISTA, SUPPORTED BY ITS LEADERSHIP IN VACA MUERTA JPM: WEIGHTED AVERAGE COST OF CAPITAL USED FOR VISTA'S VALUATION STANDS AT 9.8% JPM: RAISES 3Q26 EBITDA ESTIMATES FOR BOTH COMPANIES UNDER COVERAGE JPM: VISTA'S CONCESSIONS ARE VALUED USING A DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW MODEL EXTENDING THROUGH 2054 JPM: TRANSPORTATION AND MIDSTREAM CONSTRAINTS REMAIN AMONG THE KEY POTENTIAL RISKS TO THE GROWTH THESIS
$VIST $YPF ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ท JP Morgan Maintains Overweight on Vista Energy, Lowers Price Target to $87 JP Morgan Maintains Overweight on YPF, Lowers Price Target to $60.5
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๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท SANTANDER: MARKET HAS CORRECTED SHARPLY, BUT FUNDAMENTALS HAVE NOT NECESSARILY BOTTOMED OUT SANTANDER: HIGHER COST OF EQUITY AND WEAKER CREDIT DYNAMICS SUGGEST FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS SANTANDER: FAVORS QUALITY ASSETS, DIVERSIFICATION AND DEFENSIVE CHARACTERISTICS SANTANDER: HIGHLIGHTS CASH, INSURANCE AND ITAรš UNIBANCO AS A MORE DEFENSIVE WAY TO NAVIGATE MARKETS SANTANDER: LATIN AMERICA'S RELATIVE INVESTMENT APPEAL HAS LIKELY DECLINED SANTANDER: BRAZIL'S POSITION AS A REGIONAL INVESTMENT FOCUS MAY HAVE WEAKENED SANTANDER: BRAZIL COULD SEE LOWER ALLOCATIONS FROM GLOBAL LONG-ONLY INVESTORS SANTANDER: HIGHER SELIC RATES MEAN HIGHER FUNDING COSTS AND WEAKER CREDIT GROWTH SANTANDER: ITAรš REMAINS RELATIVELY WELL POSITIONED, SUPPORTED BY RISK MANAGEMENT AND DIVERSIFICATION SANTANDER: BTG ALSO APPEARS STRUCTURALLY BETTER POSITIONED THAN MOST BANKS SANTANDER: BANKS MORE SENSITIVE TO HIGHER SELIC RATES, SUCH AS BRADESCO, MAY BE VULNERABLE SANTANDER: HIGHER INTEREST RATES SHOULD SUPPORT INSURERS' FINANCIAL RESULTS SANTANDER: NUBANK BECOMES AN INVESTMENT THESIS THAT NEEDS TO DELIVER RESULTS AMID HIGHER FUNDING COSTS SANTANDER: CAPITAL MARKET RECOVERY LOOKS MORE DISTANT, WEIGHING ON B3 AND XP
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Algo sobre $AMZN $INTC $VALE $VIST en historias de instagram.
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$VIST $YPF ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ท JP Morgan Maintains Overweight on Vista Energy, Lowers Price Target to $87 JP Morgan Maintains Overweight on YPF, Lowers Price Target to $60.5
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$INTC Intel Q3 Adj. EPS $0.52 Beats $0.40 Estimate, Sales $16.513B Beat $16.467B Estimate Intel Sees Q4 Adj EPS $0.25 vs $0.43 Est; Sees Sales $15.000B-$16.000B vs $17.045B Est
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$AMZN Amazon.com Q3 EPS $1.89 Misses $1.97 Estimate, Sales $201.944B Miss $202.308B Estimate
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๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท GAVEKAL: BRAZIL'S ELECTION AND THE SUBSEQUENT VIOLENT MARKET MOVES HAVE DOMINATED HEADLINES GAVEKAL: INVESTORS WILL LIKELY REDUCE RISK AHEAD OF ELECTIONS FOLLOWING BRAZIL'S EXPERIENCE GAVEKAL: HOW MANY INVESTORS WILL FEEL COMFORTABLE REMAINING LONG ARGENTINA AHEAD OF ITS ELECTION? GAVEKAL: THIS WEEK'S MARKET SHOCK IN BRAZIL COULD CAST A LONGER, DARKER SHADOW GAVEKAL: THE MAIN LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL FOR BRAZIL IS THAT BONDS, EQUITIES AND THE CURRENCY ARE NOW CHEAPER
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๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท LULA SAYS IN AN AUDIO RECORDING THAT HE PLANS TO ADDRESS THE NATION NEXT WEEK.
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๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท GS: BRAZIL'S CONSOLIDATED PUBLIC SECTOR POSTED A BRL 5.5BN DEFICIT IN SEPTEMBER, EXCEEDING MARKET EXPECTATIONS GS: OVERALL PUBLIC SECTOR FISCAL DEFICIT STANDS AT AN ELEVATED 9.5% OF GDP GS: FISCAL DEFICIT IS ON TRACK TO EXCEED 8% OF GDP IN EVERY YEAR OF THE LULA ADMINISTRATION GS: GENERAL GOVERNMENT GROSS DEBT STANDS AT A HIGH 82.9% OF GDP, UP FROM 71.7% AT YEAR-END 2022 GS: LACK OF SPENDING CONTROL HAS UNDERMINED FISCAL TARGET CREDIBILITY AND CONTRIBUTED TO AN OVERHEATED, OVERINDEBTED ECONOMY GS: STRUCTURAL PRIMARY FISCAL SURPLUSES ABOVE 2.5% OF GDP WOULD BE NEEDED TO LOWER THE NEUTRAL REAL INTEREST RATE, AN UNLIKELY NEAR-TERM SCENARIO
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$EWZ ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท BTG cree que Ibovespa puede caer otro 10% en USD... Al final el ajuste lo hizo el mercado.
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท BTG: IBOVESPA TRADES AT 7.7X FORWARD 12-MONTH P/E BTG: SELIC COULD END 2027 ABOVE THE CURRENTLY PROJECTED 12.5% LEVEL BTG: DESPITE THE MAGNITUDE OF MONDAY'S IBOVESPA DECLINE, THE BEARISH CORRECTION COULD CONTINUE BTG: WITHOUT NEW DEVELOPMENTS, WE BELIEVE IBOVESPA COULD FALL ANOTHER 10% IN USD TERMS BTG: EVEN IF IT DOES NOT FALL FURTHER, IBOVESPA COULD TRADE SIDEWAYS UNTIL THE GOVERNMENT ANNOUNCES ITS PLANS BTG: EXPECTATIONS FOR A SIGNIFICANT FISCAL PACKAGE REMAIN LOW BTG: A MORE LIMITED SET OF MEASURES COULD HELP STABILIZE EQUITIES AND LONG-TERM INTEREST RATES
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๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท BTG: IBOVESPA TRADES AT 7.7X FORWARD 12-MONTH P/E BTG: SELIC COULD END 2027 ABOVE THE CURRENTLY PROJECTED 12.5% LEVEL BTG: DESPITE THE MAGNITUDE OF MONDAY'S IBOVESPA DECLINE, THE BEARISH CORRECTION COULD CONTINUE BTG: WITHOUT NEW DEVELOPMENTS, WE BELIEVE IBOVESPA COULD FALL ANOTHER 10% IN USD TERMS BTG: EVEN IF IT DOES NOT FALL FURTHER, IBOVESPA COULD TRADE SIDEWAYS UNTIL THE GOVERNMENT ANNOUNCES ITS PLANS BTG: EXPECTATIONS FOR A SIGNIFICANT FISCAL PACKAGE REMAIN LOW BTG: A MORE LIMITED SET OF MEASURES COULD HELP STABILIZE EQUITIES AND LONG-TERM INTEREST RATES
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$PBR ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท BTG: PETROBRAS OFFERS ATTRACTIVE RISK-REWARD; FCFE YIELD SEEN AT AROUND 13-16% IN 2027 BTG: EXPECTS UPWARD REVISION TO PETROBRAS PRODUCTION GUIDANCE; REFINING MARGINS REMAIN ROBUST BTG: PETROBRAS SHOWS STRONG PRODUCTION MOMENTUM; RECENT FPSOS STILL RAMPING UP BTG REITERATES BUY RATING ON PETROBRAS ADR WITH $26.00 PRICE TARGET BTG: PETROBRAS QUARTER EXPECTED TO FEATURE ROBUST REFINING PROFITABILITY BTG: PETROBRAS QUARTER EXPECTED TO BENEFIT FROM LOWER OIL PRICES AND WIDER DISCOUNTS BTG: ESTIMATES PETROBRAS 3Q26 DIVIDENDS AT AROUND $3.6BN, WITH A 2.5% DIVIDEND YIELD BTG: ESTIMATES PETROBRAS 3Q26 EBITDA AT AROUND $19BN AND CASH FLOW AT $4.9BN
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๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท BOULOS: THOSE CALLING FOR LULA TO IMPLEMENT FISCAL ADJUSTMENT HAVE FAILED TO UNDERSTAND THE ELECTION RESULT BOULOS: THE FINANCIAL MARKET'S CANDIDATE WAS DEFEATED AT THE BALLOT BOX BY POPULAR MOBILIZATION BOULOS: FARIA LIMA'S CANDIDATE LOST AND FLED TO THE UNITED STATES BOULOS: BRAZIL'S ECONOMIC AGENDA WILL BE SET BY THOSE WHO WON THE ELECTION, NOT THOSE WHO LOST!
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$BMA ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ท BRADESCO: NEW BUYBACK PROGRAM PROVIDES SHORT-TERM SHARE PRICE SUPPORT BUT DOES NOT ADDRESS THE BANK'S EXCESS CAPITAL BRADESCO: BANK HAS A HISTORY OF OPPORTUNISTIC SHARE BUYBACKS TRIGGERED BY STOCK PRICE DECLINES BRADESCO: 30 MILLION SHARES WERE REPURCHASED IN 2018 AND SUBSEQUENTLY CANCELED BRADESCO: A 30 MILLION-SHARE BUYBACK PROGRAM WORTH ARS 225BN WAS ANNOUNCED IN OCTOBER 2025 BUT SUSPENDED FOLLOWING THE POST-MIDTERM ELECTION RALLY BRADESCO: NEW BUYBACK PROGRAM REPRESENTS APPROXIMATELY 2.5% OF OUTSTANDING SHARES AND 4% OF EXCESS CAPITAL BRADESCO: RECURRING SHARE BUYBACKS AND HIGHER PAYOUTS IDENTIFIED AS KEY CATALYSTS FOR A REVALUATION OF CAPITAL ALLOCATION
$BMA ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ท Reported Earlier, Banco Macro Announces Share Repurchase Of Up To 20M Class B Shares, Up To Ps$10,700.00 Per Share, Over 45 Calendar Days
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$BMA ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ท Reported Earlier, Banco Macro Announces Share Repurchase Of Up To 20M Class B Shares, Up To Ps$10,700.00 Per Share, Over 45 Calendar Days
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$MSFT Barclays Adjusts Price Target on Microsoft to $610 From $600 BofA Securities Adjusts Price Target on Microsoft to $630 From $600, Maintains Buy Rating Citigroup Adjusts Price Target on Microsoft to $680 From $636 Morgan Stanley Adjusts Price Target on Microsoft to $650 From $600 Wells Fargo Adjusts Price Target on Microsoft to $750 From $725
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$GOOGL BNP Paribas Adjusts Price Target on Alphabet to $410 From $450 BofA Securities Adjusts Price Target on Alphabet to $380 From $430, Maintains Buy Rating Deutsche Bank Adjusts Alphabet Price Target to $390 From $430, Maintains Buy Rating JPMorgan Adjusts Price Target on Alphabet to $375 From $425 Morgan Stanley Adjusts Price Target on Alphabet to $375 From $400 RBC Cuts Price Target on Alphabet to $400 From $425, Keeps Outperform Rating Wedbush Adjusts Price Target on Alphabet to $387 From $445, Keeps Outperform Rating
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