Alok

$AMZN just printed the most confusing quarter of this earnings season, & the call made it both clearer & wilder. The headline missed. Revenue came in at $201.9B, under the $202.3B the Street wanted, & EPS was $1.89 against $1.97 expected. Shares fell about 7% after hours. Then Jassy started talking about AWS & the whole mood changed. AWS did $46B, up 39%, its fastest growth in nearly five years & the sixth straight quarter of acceleration. That is a $184B run rate business now, with $17.8B of operating income. Jassy said AWS can grow north of 40% in both 2027 & 2028 & become a trillion dollar revenue business in the next five to ten years, with Stores as the second one. The Q&A was where it got real. Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Nowak noted how rare it is for Jassy to project that far out & asked how he gets there. The answer was backlog. Contracted AWS backlog sits at $578B, more than double a year ago, with customers reserving capacity in huge blocks & visibility stretching into 2029. The bill, though. Amazon spent $77.3B in Q3 alone, still expects about $220B of capex this year, & Jassy said 2027 will be meaningfully more. Trailing twelve month free cash flow is now negative $42.4B, versus positive $14.8B a year ago. CFO Brian Olsavsky flagged Leo satellite costs weighing on the Q4 profit guide of $28.5B to $33.5B. My read is simple. This was never about one missed quarter. It is about whether that $578B backlog turns into cash before the spending tests everyone's patience. Jassy sounds completely sure. Wall Street wants proof, not promises. @amazon #AI #Earnings

Thursday gave us one loud new bull case & a software sector in markdown mode: $PLTR got the day's biggest initiation, JPMorgan starting it at Overweight with a $262 December 2027 target, 33% above Wednesday's close, with a Positive Catalyst Watch tag into Monday's print. Essex says buyers now ask what AI earns them & profitable hypergrowth is his answer, though shares still slipped 1.6%. $FTNT took the downgrade of the day, BofA cutting it to Neutral from Buy & slashing its target to $140 from $220, with 15 plus other firms trimming theirs. BofA doubts the timing of the next earnings leg given longer lead times, & shares cratered 26% to a five month low. $NOW never got one big downgrade, it got a pileup, BTIG to $150 from $170, UBS to $140 from $150, a dozen plus cuts in all. Raymond James flagged lagging subscription growth & backlog, no AI payoff yet, & shares fell 27% for their worst day on record. $SFM got double downgraded by BofA to Underperform from Buy, target $47 from $100, while RBC cut it to Sector Perform at $49, down from $111. Soft traffic, the cyclospora mess & 2027 price cuts had shares down 23% to a two year low, which reads structural, not cyclical. #Stocks

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Largest heist in modern history #Binance

What happened in markets today: That was a weird one. The headline indexes fell, but most of the market actually went up. Tech got hit hard enough to drag everything else down with it on paper. 1. The scoreboard did not tell the whole story. The S&P 500 fell 0.30% to 7,720.39, the Nasdaq fell 1.38% to 26,184.72 & the Dow fell 0.25% to 52,342.56. But nine of eleven sectors rose, health care jumped 2.40% & the Russell 2000 gained about 1%. $SPY, $QQQ & $DIA were red because a few giant tech names were very red. 2. Software had a brutal day & it honestly felt like a reset. $NOW plunged 27%, the worst name in the S&P 500, after soft subscription guidance rattled people who are already nervous about AI eating software. $FTNT fell more than 20% even after beating, because product growth slowed. When the two of them fall like that together, nobody in software gets spared. 3. Before the open, the winners & losers split clean. $LLY surged 6.6% to a record after revenue hit $24.4B, up 39%, with Mounjaro at $10.7B & a full year revenue guide raised to $91B to $92B. $MA rose after revenue climbed 14% to $9.81B & earnings beat. $CAT went the other way, down 9.3% despite an earnings beat, because holding guidance was not enough for a stock priced for the data center boom. 4. Deal news was everywhere & the buyers paid for it. $MRVL fell 13% on reports it is in advanced talks to buy $LITE, which closed a touch higher. $DASH rallied more than 6% after agreeing to buy Instacart parent $CART for $17B, while CART itself slipped 2.2%. $ADT soared toward its $10 cash takeout price in a $15.3B enterprise value deal. Big checks are back, just not for the buyers on day one. 5. The macro data gave everyone something to argue about. Third quarter GDP grew 3.4%, ahead of expectations, powered by consumer spending up 3.8%. September core PCE held at 3.1% from a year earlier & headline PCE was 3.6%. Strong growth with sticky inflation is exactly the mix that keeps the Fed stuck, & after Wednesday's hold at 3.75% to 4.00%, traders still see roughly an 80% chance of a December hike. 6. After the bell it got louder. $AMZN fell more than 6% in extended trading even though AWS grew 39% to $46.0B, its fastest pace in nearly five years. Sales of $201.9B & EPS of $1.89 missed, quarterly capex hit $77.3B & trailing free cash flow swung to a $42.4B outflow. $INTC fell hard after hours too. Revenue beat at $16.5B & data center sales jumped 78%, but a soft fourth quarter guide undid the good news fast. $SNDK was the standout the other way, with revenue up 378% to $11.03B. 7. Rates & the rest calmed down a bit. The 10 year Treasury yield eased to about 4.95%, WTI crude settled right at $102 & gold eased to about $4,032. $BTC slipped below $80,000 in late trading as the tech mood soured. Overseas, Europe's STOXX 600 rose 0.77%, Japan's Nikkei rose 1.10%, while Hong Kong & Shanghai fell. 8. Friday is no breather. $ABBV, $XOM & $CVX report before the open, with Chicago PMI & a Bank of Japan decision also on the calendar. After a day where AI spending went from hero to villain in about six hours, the oil majors & AbbVie almost feel like the calm names. Almost. #Earnings #AI #Stocks

RIP Captain Picard #PatrickStewart

STARBUCKS $SBUX | Q4'26 Non GAAP EPS beat at $0.80 & margins jumped, even as revenue came in a touch light after the China shift Global comps up 7.2% with US comps up 7.7%, & the stock closed up 2.24% at $105.51, flat after hours Q4'26 Revenue $9.14B vs $9.22B est, -4.5% YoY 🟡 Non GAAP EPS $0.80 vs $0.72 est, +54% YoY 🟢 GAAP EPS $0.59 vs $0.12 a year ago, +392% YoY 🟢 Operating income $992M, +257% YoY 🟢 Net income $677M, +409% YoY 🟢 Global comparable sales +7.2% 🟢 North America comparable sales +7.9% 🟢 GAAP operating margin 10.8%, up 790 bps YoY 🟢 Non GAAP operating margin 14.0%, up 450 bps YoY 🟢 FY27 Outlook Non GAAP EPS $3.15 to $3.25 vs $3.16 est 🟡 Consolidated revenue down about 1% YoY 🔴 North America comparable sales growth about 4% 🟡 Non GAAP operating margin 13.5% to 14.0% vs 11.9% in FY26 🟢 About 1,200 net new coffeehouses 🟢

ROBLOX $RBLX | Q3'26 Bookings topped the high end of guidance, but the stock is getting crushed after hours on a soft Q4 outlook Shares closed down 2% at $52.22, now down 16% after hours at $43.77 Q3'26 Revenue $1.57B vs $1.63B est, +16% YoY 🔴 Net loss per share $0.32 vs $0.41 est loss, vs $0.37 loss YoY 🟢 Bookings $1.70B vs $1.63B est, -12% YoY 🟢 Adjusted EBITDA $138M, +200% YoY 🟢 Net loss $230M vs $258M YoY 🟢 DAUs 138M vs 131M est, -9% YoY, +12% QoQ 🟢 Hours engaged nearly 34B vs 32.2B est, -15% YoY 🟢 Operating cash flow $395M vs $546M YoY 🔴 Free cash flow $364M vs $443M YoY 🔴 Q4'26 Outlook Revenue $1.47B to $1.58B, +4% to +12% YoY 🟡 Bookings $1.89B to $2.00B, -10% to -15% YoY 🔴 Adjusted EBITDA -$70M to -$10M 🔴 Net loss $363M to $423M 🔴 Free cash flow -$190M to -$105M 🔴

REDDIT $RDDT | Q3'26 Beat on revenue and EPS, with sales up 53% and profit up 74% Shares fell about 10% after hours, DAUq missed estimates and Q4 revenue guidance came in light Q3'26 Revenue $895M vs $875M est, +53% YoY 🟢 Diluted EPS $1.40 vs $1.33 est, +75% YoY 🟢 Ad revenue $847M vs $830M est, +54% YoY 🟢 Net income $283M, +74% YoY 🟢 Adjusted EBITDA $402M, +70% YoY 🟢 Gross margin 91.5%, up 50 bps YoY 🟢 DAUq 130.3M vs 134M est, +12% YoY 🔴 WAUq 515.2M, +16% YoY 🟢 Operating cash flow $364M, +96% YoY 🟢 Free cash flow $363M, +98% YoY 🟢 Q4'26 Outlook Revenue guidance $1.00B to $1.03B vs $1.045B est, Adjusted EBITDA guidance $480M to $510M 🔴 #Earnings

SANDISK $SNDK | Q1'27 Beat on top and bottom, and the guide went higher too Stock closed down 5.3% in the regular session, then rose 3.2% after hours to $1,373 Q1'27 Revenue $11.03B vs $10.70B est, +378% YoY 🟢 Non GAAP EPS $49.51 vs $46.41 est, vs $1.22 YoY 🟢 GAAP EPS $52.60 vs $0.75 YoY 🟢 Operating income $8.78B vs $176M YoY 🟢 Net income $8.10B vs $112M YoY 🟢 Gross margin 85.0% vs 29.8% YoY 🟢 Datacenter revenue $4.80B, +61% sequentially 🟢 Edge revenue $5.83B, +320% YoY 🟢 Consumer revenue $397M, -39% YoY 🔴 Buyback $5.0B in the quarter, plus an 8 for 1 stock split announced 🟢 Q2'27 Outlook Revenue $12.2B to $12.6B vs $12.29B est 🟢 Non GAAP EPS $55.00 to $57.00 vs $53.35 est 🟢 Non GAAP gross margin 84.5% to 85.5% 🟡

GILEAD SCIENCES $GILD | Q3'26 Big beat on both lines, and HIV is doing the heavy lifting Sales guide raised again, though the loss guide widened on $12.4B of deal charges Q3'26 Revenue $8.30B vs $7.8B est, +7% YoY 🟢 Non GAAP EPS $2.55 vs $2.19 est, +3% YoY 🟢 GAAP EPS $1.94, -20% YoY 🔴 Operating income $3.46B, +4% YoY 🟢 Net income $2.43B, -20% YoY 🔴 HIV sales $6.2B, +18% YoY 🟢 Biktarvy sales $4.1B vs $3.86B est, +10% YoY 🟢 Descovy sales $1.0B, +49% YoY 🟢 Trodelvy sales $506M, +42% YoY 🟢 Cell Therapy sales $355M, -18% YoY 🔴 Product sales excluding Veklury $8.2B, +16% YoY 🟢 FY26 Outlook Product sales $31.0B to $31.3B, raised from $30.1B to $30.4B 🟢 Product sales excluding Veklury $30.7B to $31.0B, raised from $29.8B to $30.1B 🟢 Non GAAP diluted loss per share $1.20 to $0.85, widened from a $0.65 to $0.30 loss on deal charges 🔴 #Earnings

INTEL $INTC | Q3'26 Adjusted EPS beat big and data center revenue surged 78%, the strongest growth in 15 years The Q4 guide is the problem though, it came in well below what the Street wanted Q3'26 Revenue $16.5B vs $16.47B est, +21% YoY 🟡 Adjusted EPS $0.52 vs $0.40 est, +126% YoY 🟢 GAAP EPS $0.60, -33% YoY 🔴 Adjusted gross margin 44.1%, +4.1 ppts YoY 🟢 Adjusted operating margin 19.6%, +8.4 ppts YoY 🟢 Net income $3.3B GAAP, -18% YoY 🔴 Adjusted net income $2.8B, +169% YoY 🟢 Data Center and AI revenue $7.3B, +78% YoY 🟢 Client Computing revenue $8.1B, -5% YoY 🔴 Foundry revenue $6.7B, +58% YoY 🟢 Q4'26 Outlook Revenue guide $15.0B to $16.0B vs $16.9B est 🔴 Adjusted EPS guide $0.25 vs $0.43 est 🔴 GAAP EPS guide $0.10 🔴 Adjusted gross margin guide 38.0% 🔴

Amazon just printed Q3 and AWS is the whole story here $AMZN Q3 2026 results: 🟡 Net sales: $201.9B, up 12% YoY (up 13% ex FX, and roughly 16% adjusting for Prime Day moving to Q2) vs $202.1B expected, right at the top of the $197B to $202B guide 🔴 EPS: $1.89 vs $1.96 to $2.01 expected and $1.95 a year ago. The year ago number carried $9.5B of pre tax Anthropic gains, and this quarter had no such gain, with other income swinging to a $703M expense 🟢 Operating income: $28.1B, up 61% YoY, well above the $22.5B to $26.5B guide, at a record 13.9% operating margin 🟢 AWS sales: $46.0B, up 39% YoY, fastest growth in nearly five years and well above the 30% to 35% expected, a $184B annualized run rate 🟡 AWS operating margin: 38.7% on $17.8B of operating income, up 55% YoY, a touch below Q2's 39.4% 🟢 North America: sales $112.9B, up 6% YoY, operating income $8.7B, up 82% YoY 🟢 International: sales $43.1B, up 5% YoY, operating income $1.6B, up 32% YoY 🟡 Advertising: $19.6B, up 11% YoY, slower than Q2's 26% on Prime Day timing, with high teens growth guided for Q4 🟢 Operating cash flow (TTM): $168.3B, up 29% YoY 🔴 Free cash flow (TTM): $42.4B outflow vs a $14.8B inflow a year ago, as equipment purchases jumped $94.8B YoY on the AI buildout 🟡 Q4 net sales guide: $240B to $247B, up 12% to 16% YoY, right around expectations 🟡 Q4 operating income guide: $28.5B to $33.5B vs $25.0B a year ago 🟡 Capex: 2026 cash capex outlook held at about $220B Jassy says AWS growth is projected above 40% in both 2027 and 2028. The cloud reacceleration is real, and Amazon is spending like it to keep up.

RIVIAN $RIVN | Q3'26 Revenue beat big and R2 is already the best selling Rivian, with guidance raised across the board Deliveries jumped 46% and the net loss narrowed a lot from a year ago Q3'26 Revenue $2.155B vs $1.99B est, +38% YoY 🟢 Adjusted EPS -$0.48 vs -$0.65 est, vs -$0.65 YoY 🟢 Deliveries 19,248, +46% YoY 🟢 Production 19,751, +84% YoY 🟢 Automotive revenue $1.550B, +36% YoY 🟢 Software and services revenue $605M, +45% YoY 🟢 Gross profit $176M vs $24M YoY 🟢 Adjusted EBITDA -$435M vs -$602M YoY 🟢 Net loss -$913M vs -$1.173B YoY 🟢 Cash and short term investments $5.502B 🟡 2026 Outlook Deliveries guidance 67,000 to 70,000, raised from 65,000 to 70,000 🟢 Adjusted EBITDA guidance -$1.85B to -$1.75B, improved $100M at the midpoint 🟢 Capex guidance $1.40B to $1.50B, cut $300M at the midpoint 🟢 #Earnings

$ADT is up 34% to $9.93 & the premium explains it. Thrive Holdings is buying the security giant for $10 a share in cash, $7.6B in equity value & $15.3B including debt, close expected Q1 2027. A 150 year old name going private for the AI treatment. Wild #Stocks #Mergers

Okay this one stopped me for a second. $ORCL just reaffirmed 35% growth compounded all the way to fiscal 2030, with revenue at $225B or more by then, & it still expects capex to peak in fiscal 2027 & 2028 before free cash flow hits $30B in fiscal 2029. That is Oracle basically saying the AI buildout is not a one year splurge, it is a multi year demand curve they can already see. Spending first, cash later, but the demand is what makes that math believable. #AI #Cloud

Well this one is official now. $DASH is buying Instacart parent Maplebear $CART for $65 a share, about $17B in equity value & a 26% premium to where Instacart closed before the sale talk leaked. DoorDash jumped about 7% premarket & Instacart rose about 5% before trading was halted. DoorDash also printed a huge quarter, revenue up 34% to $4.6B & orders up 28%. Meals plus the weekly grocery run under one roof. Amazon & Walmart just got a much bigger rival. #Stocks #Acquisition

MASTERCARD $MA | Q3'26 Beat on both lines, revenue up 14% and the cross border engine is still humming Operating margin widened to 59.8% and Mastercard bought back $3.0B of stock in the quarter Q3'26 Revenue $9.81B vs $9.66B est, +14% YoY 🟢 Adjusted EPS $5.31 vs $5.17 est, +21% YoY 🟢 GAAP EPS $5.28, +22% YoY 🟢 Operating income $5.86B, +16% YoY 🟢 Net income $4.63B, +18% YoY 🟢 Operating margin 59.8% vs 58.8% a year ago 🟢 Gross dollar volume $3.0T, +7% YoY 🟢 Cross border volume +11% YoY 🟢 Switched transactions +9% YoY 🟢 Value added services revenue +19% YoY 🟢 Q4'26 Outlook Mastercard does not give formal quarterly guidance in its release Watch cross border volume, +11% this quarter 🟢 Watch value added services, revenue +19% this quarter 🟢

Wow, this AI deal would be huge. $MRVL is reportedly in advanced talks to buy $LITE, the optics maker valued around $83B, & a deal could land as soon as next week. Lumentum jumped 11% after hours & Marvell fell 8%. No final deal yet. #AI #Semiconductors

ELI LILLY $LLY | Q3'26 Revenue smashed estimates and Lilly raised its full year revenue guide hard, the GLP-1 machine is not slowing down one bit Shares are up about 4% premarket, with Mounjaro and Zepbound both beating even as a huge one time research charge hit the quarter Q3'26 Revenue $24.40B vs $22.61B est, +39% YoY 🟢 Adjusted EPS $7.48 vs $6.26 est, +7% YoY 🟢 Reported EPS $7.22, +16% YoY 🟢 Net income $6.45B, +16% YoY 🟢 Mounjaro sales $10.72B vs $10.16B est, +65% YoY 🟢 Zepbound sales $5.35B vs $5.09B est, +49% YoY 🟢 Foundayo sales $184M vs $217M est 🔴 FY26 Outlook Full year revenue guidance raised to $91B to $92B, up from $85B to $87B 🟢 Full year adjusted EPS guidance trimmed to $35.00 to $36.00 from $35.50 to $36.50, after $4.57 a share of acquired research charges 🔴 Performance margin guidance raised to 52.0% to 52.5% from 49.0% to 50.5% 🟢