DISCLAIMER: This is not investment advice. I am not a financial advisor. All my posts and tweets are opinions only.
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I truly hope Warsh and the Fed understand when hedge funds start blowing up that will cause liquidity issues and the last thing you want to do is make the markets more illiquid by hiking rates.
After the red hot jobs data this morning the prediction markets now show an almost 80% chance of a rate hike for December. Great so the Fed is going to hike after a 14% drawdown in the $QQQ
I still would be careful today as the VIX did not have a blow off top yesterday , again the #1 way I‘ve found that a bottom is in is when the VIX has a blow off top
So allegedly the job market and therefore the economy is booming but we just had a a 14% drawdown in the $QQQ This points to hedge funds blowing up and therfore forced selling imo
The worst possible thing as now a rate hike is back on the table
US JOBS REPORT SMASHES EXPECTATIONS
US employers added 165,000 jobs in October, nearly triple the 59,000 expected.
🔸 Nonfarm payrolls: +165K vs. +59K expected
🔸 Unemployment: 4.1% vs. 4.2% expected
🔸 Private payrolls: +159K
🔸 Wage growth: +0.37% monthly, +3.12% annually
🔸 September payrolls revised: +60K
The Stock Screen That’s Returned Almost 26% a Year Since 1998. Turning Every $10,000 Into Almost $5 Million. willmeade.substack.com/p/the…
The problem with Fintwit, twitter, X is that everyone has a different risk tolerance, age, income etc. There is no magic pill, ozempic for investing.
This week will likely mark the top of Large Cap Outperformance over Small Caps. Small Caps have little institutional ownership and they’ve been lagging Large Caps for years. Huge market moves tend to change leadership and I think Small Caps and Value will now lead for years.
Obviously a horrific day.
Green shoots: Almost a Lowry 90% downside day. The Fed wont hike now. Huge panic VIX moves tend to mark bottoms. Seasonally this is the most bullish period for stocks. Lastly non farm payrolls tomorrow is a huge event and could cause short covering.
Watch the VIX, if there‘s any chance for a rebound tomorrow the VIX needs to have a blow off top before the close.
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Someone big must've gotten liquidated today. Tech stocks $QQQ have fallen into oversold territory for the first time in over 6 months.
Good news is that the Nasdaq 100 was higher 2 days out in 16 of 18 cases. But by day 10, the positivity rate dropped below 40%.
ALT Chart showing QQQ's RSI falling to oversold territory (≤30) for the first time in over six months. Historical data since 1999 shows the Nasdaq 100 was higher two trading days later in 16 of 18 cases, but the 10-day positivity rate fell to 27.3%.
Bottom is near
UBS Warns Hedge Funds Are Capitulating As Goldman Says "Our Phones Are Exploding" zerohedge.com/markets/ubs-he…
An obvious puke is happening today, did a fund blow up? Are institutions panicking, hedging? No one knows but since 1990 the S&P has been up 100% of the time 6 months after a midterm election. Tomorrow or next week could be a great buying opportunity at least based on history.
Where Is The Smart Money Going After The Midterms and What Did The Options Market Say. Plus One of My Favorite Chart/Candlestick Patterns. willmeade.substack.com/p/whe…
My Favorite Trading Pattern Is Everywhere and How To Trade This Pattern. Plus A Huge Reminder. willmeade.substack.com/p/my-…