astrophysics - tx
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Joined October 2025
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Early voting is live. (link below)
Every Texas precinct, day by day, as counties post their voters.
See who has voted so far by their primary record: last voted in a Democratic primary, a Republican primary, or none, and in how many of the last four.
Compare it with every general since 2020, split by mail, early in person and election day, and see how each group’s primary record lined up with the actual result.
Theo retweeted
It appears that Republican primary voters statewide now make up 31.9% to the Democrats 31.2% in a record midterm Election turnout thru Wednesday of 5.715 Million. Harris County is 15% of the State EV total. Texan Independent voters are surging, for example, see chart, in Harris County to 35%, far outpacing Republicans at 26% and approaching the Democrat's 39% share. Independents will decide these races, and of that there can be no doubt. That's one for #txlege!
Busting one Myth is that I've been asked repeatedly if Democrats would run out of voters by Wed here, and the answer is NO!
An interesting chart by volunteer Russ Long of @HarrisCountyRP, shows remaining Rep vs Dem numbers by 9 consecutive years of primary voting, and there is a 44k lead in D vs R in one primary voters that haven't voted in Harris County through Wed, so turnout Thursday, Friday, and on Tuesday Election Day will tell the tale as turnout levels have been shattered in Texas Urban counties compared to 2018 and 2022.
Will rural and suburban counties keep up? Or for the 1st time since 1994, will Democrat Candidates win TX statewide races? Because all👀Nationally, will be on Texas Tuesday Night!
Pictures from @theoelections
Theo retweeted
Texas early voting turnout by place type, 2026 vs. this point in 2022:
Urban: ⬆️ 59%
Suburban: ⬆️ 47%
Exurban: ⬆️ 41%
Rural: ⬆️ 28%
—
Texas early voting turnout by place type, 2026 vs. this point in 2024:
Urban: ⬇️ 10%
Suburban: ⬇️ 13%
Exurban: ⬇️ 23%
Rural: ⬇️ 32%
Theo retweeted
New @theoelections site has a great graphical user interface, GUI, showing the turnout in the election statewide that I expanded for SE Texas. Obviously, Red is Republican voting precincts, Blue is Democrat, but it shows the tremendous record midterm turnout in Harris County underway that I'll guess hits above 700,000 early voters today. (That's 624k votes in the ballot can 🗳 by Sunday, and at least another 75k I'm expecting today in Monday's total). That will take us through 9 days of early voting, and with 4 more to go I think Harris County Clerk @TeneshiaHudspe1's estimate of a Million early voters made on the @KSEVRadio Amigos show Friday is a pretty safe bet this week!
"Blueberries Cities" like Beaumont, College Station, Galveston, and the 3rd largest in the Country, Houston, are competing for shares of this record turnout with effectively "Red Counties", and a line of precincts from West Houston, the Villages, East Memorial, and River Oaks. It's Quite a contest of wills playing out at the polls and it shows that every vote counts.
Trends that are pronounced:
Republican turnout is stuck at or below 27% by primary voter identification. That's not good news for "R-candidates" because they have to take a HUGE share of Independent voters to break 50%.
Democrat share by primary voters has fallen to 42%; however, Independent share of the total is up to 31%+ and rising, and replaces lower the Dem share, which is good news for "D-candidates" even those are not necessarily "straight ticket" voters.
Assuming 1 million Early Voters in Harris County, that could add up to 1.33 Million or 1.5 Million total County votes by election Night. That makes a BIG Difference in statewide races in Texas! More to come!!
Theo retweeted
Texans who have voted in a Democratic primary since 2020 are voting early like it’s a presidential election
Texans who have voted in a GOP primary since 2020 are voting early like it’s a midterm election
And Texans who haven’t voted in a recent primary appear to be skewing Dem
Theo retweeted
🚨Texas Early Voting Breakdown🚨
🔵 Democratic Only - 33.3%
🔴 Republican Only - 32.7%
🟣 Both Parties - 3.1%
⚫️ No Primary - 30.9%
(Numbers based on which party primary the voter voted in between 2020 and 2026)
Source: @theoelections (theoelections.com/early-vote)
Theo retweeted
I wouldn't worry too much about who's ahead or behind after Day 5 of early voting in Texas, because the reality is that *we still know nothing about who these voters are actually voting for*
The early voting data is certainly useful to estimate the final *electorate*, and @Thorongil16 and @theoelections are doing excellent work analyzing it. So far, the composition of the electorate looks consistent with a narrow Talarico victory if the polls are exactly right. But the polls are rarely "exactly" right, that's a huge ask, especially because we don't have any information about how late deciders will break.
To put this in perspective, imagine flipping a 60–40 coin (basically this election) and a 50–50 coin (true tossup) ten times each (which is basically running this election every cycle until 2040). Even if you guessed which coin was biased based on which landed heads more often, you'd only identify the right one about 67% of the time. That's how difficult it is to distinguish a 60% chance from a true toss-up!
A two-point polling error in Paxton's favor would be entirely normal (that's actually smaller than the average polling error, last year the RCP average literally missed by 10.5 in NJ and 5 in VA). If Paxton ultimately won by one point, that would still represent a smaller-than-average polling error! The bottom line is that this remains an extremely competitive race (the reason everyone cares so much about it is because it's a highly competitive race, unlike 80% of races on the ballot in 10 days)--there's a lot of uncertainty here, and the early voting data doesn't and won't come close to resolving it.