The ReForge Podcast

Burn $100M a year. Make $20K contribution per robot. Matt Chang’s math: that’s 5,000 robots a year just to break even, before you’ve built the US assembly plant you’d need to make 5,000 of anything. The advertised backlog is a fraction of that, and it’s spread over five years. (EP 032)

Matthew Chang, PE and Colin Russ take Episode 32 of the ReForge Podcast without a guest, and spend it on the economics of humanoid robots. Matt runs the Agility Robotics pricing sheet the way a CFO would and lands on a 6.25 year payback, which is roughly double what e-commerce will tolerate. From there: why robot as a service subscriptions get ripped out by maintenance teams, why a lease past twelve months shows up on your debt ledger, what the ERP integration actually costs, and what a SPAC tells you about a company’s books. 👉 Watch the full episode on Rumble: rumble.com/v7hizmw-five-thou…

Raising from angels and then venture is not a step in building the company. It is the job. Two years of your build, spent being a capital raiser instead. Scroll X and every startup looks venture funded, which creates the illusion that the money is accessible. It mostly isn’t. (EP 031)

“It is not the founder of the company that wants the IPO. It’s their investors want the IPO.” — @MatthewChang, EP 031

The ReForge Podcast - Ep. 041 nitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1kKzDPYmD…

Steel at six months pushes the whole project six months, because steel goes up early. Earthwork, foundations, columns. Switchgear at 80 weeks is worse. It lands at the back end, so you can have a finished building sitting there and still not be able to turn a machine on. (EP 031)

“You have to get the steel ordered first, prior to even starting the earthwork on the site. That’s how busted we are right now.” — @MatthewChang, EP 031

Matthew Chang, PE and Colin Russ take Episode 31 of the ReForge Podcast. Two calls in this one. First, structural steel has become the critical path on factory builds. You cannot get a mill order inside six months, which means owners are now buying their steel package before the building permit is approved and before the earthwork starts. Second, the customer-funded founder is the one most likely to make it through this wave, and venture capital was never really built for someone with roots, kids, and a mortgage in a flyover state. 👉 Watch the full episode on Rumble: rumble.com/v7h32ka-structura…

The ReForge Podcast - Ep. 040 nitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1aKbdEayy…

“If you’re trying to hit a bill of materials target of 65, 75 percent, you absolutely have to have your actuators and motors made domestically.” — @masonhensley, EP 030

Defense stator work is cost plus, so nobody optimizes it. A technician picks up a stator, sprays epoxy on it, puts it in a little induction heater, one in, one out. If you can bill a hundred dollars for the part, you never build the line that would make it cheaper. (EP 030)

The ReForge Podcast - Ep. 039: Gues Nick Lease (@Benefitsguynick ) Joins Matt ( @MatthewChang) and Colin (@thaaatColin) on @thereforgepod nitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1qKVmyqaY…

“We’ve gotten some quotes from some shops that are saying it’d take them 14 to 16 months, and they’ve got a backlog they’re working with.” — @masonhensley, EP 030

A stator is 50 layers of silicon steel, each two tenths of a millimeter thick, about two sheets of printer paper. You stamp it in layers instead of machining it from solid so the motor doesn’t cook itself on eddy current. Every robot joint you’ve seen starts here. (EP 030)

New episode! Mason Hensley of American Stator on why 80 percent of small stators come from China, what a 14-month die lead time does to a startup, and why the coating machine he needs is only made in one country. (EP 030) @masonhensley

"The buyer of your business is your final customer, and on some level they are your most important customer." — @ryanraysr, EP 029

Don't argue valuation with an owner. Take him to an SBA lender and ask what they'd lend on the business. Owners understand banks. If the bank says 3.2 and he wants 7, the conversation is over without anyone insulting anyone. (EP 029)

The ReForge Podcast - Ep. 038: Talk Pro-Rata to me nitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1RKZzBlRg…

"Drop your phone right now, hop on a plane, and go to Thailand. Can you do that? And what areas can you not do that in? That's where you focus on removing yourself from the business." — @ryanraysr, EP 029

Most owners never name the game they're playing. They just play it. If it's family succession, be intentional about what that looks like, because a lot of sons and daughters burn out feeling like cheap labor dad won't pay for. The game can change. You still have to know which one you're in today. (EP 029)