Bucket Shop Virtuoso. AMT Futures Trader | Pronouns: Bid/Offer
Joined October 2021
- Tweets612
- Following586
- Followers115
- Likes2.1K
Tick Syndicate retweeted
Some people thought they knew ‘what GDP was for’ - or rather what it *wasn’t* for.
Then their utopian, ahistorical, we-misread-early-Fukuyama, self-serving stance was demolished by ‘history returning’.
Which was always inevitable, as some of us have been trying to say for 25 years or more.
The world system the BIS lorded over was ONLY built by U.S. military strength in WW2 and the Cold War - and then the global U.S. dollar they allowed to develop.
But that global U.S. dollar meant fewer and fewer U.S., then Western, factories over time; so a weaker U.S. and Western military.
And guess what? Everybody else didn’t get the message that history had ended and that was that and we could all drink champagne and toast the future. They had other ideas about what GDP is for.
So, now the old global order is over and the U.S., and some of the West some of the time, is trying to rebuild something new yet far more Old School:
Neomercantilism will replace neoliberalism, even if it will take the likes of The Economist years to be able to fully understand and then summarise it like that.
Logically, one way or another, that is going to mean the inverse of what Craig describes below - lending for manufacturing being incentivised over finance and function over frivolity.
Or, the U.S. and West can make even less stuff, be weaker and poorer, and end up severing drinks to those who understand the dynamic described above and below.
All else is commentary.
I spent 35 years building banking systems for banks worldwide, including central banks. I know how banks decide where their money goes.
When you build systems, you have to make them work, so you have to know how they work.
The Basel Committee de-industrialised the countries that adopted its rules. It's that simple: I explain the whole complicated mechanism in my essay. They simply regulated it away because that was the most profitable thing to do. It was implemented in such a systemic global way, and nobody seemed to notice
Capital is what a bank must hold before it can lend, the way a manufacturer or miner must hold supplies before it can sell. No miner doubles their costs to serve one group of customers. But that's what the banking system does to miners and manufacturers. Since 1988, the Basel rules have required banks to hold twice the capital against a factory loan as against a home loan, and under Basel III the gap reaches five times. So banks lend less to industry and more against houses. It should be stopped tomorrow.
Manufacturing's share of GDP fell in ten of the eleven countries I examined. In Australia it fell from 13.7% to 5.4%. Every other country that followed fell as well. The only truly crafty ones were the Koreans, who did a good job of offsetting it.
Regulators were warned in writing that the rule would steer credit, and they adopted it anyway. No parliament voted for it, and it's simply too dumb to keep doing, but we do . Not today; there is no justification. Yet from India, across Europe, across the US, including Australia, sanctions against industrial capacity. Financialization has gone too far it needs to be reviewed .
The charge is manslaughter by gross negligence. The mechanism is proven.
Same Rules, Different Ruins:ctindale.substack.com/p/same…
Tick Syndicate retweeted
Just a reminder that @donnelly_brent is a machine
spectramarkets.com/amfx/a-cr…
RT @deerpointmacro: An interesting dynamic in the HY market over the past year (not shown here) is the divergence between B and CCC spreads…
Tick Syndicate retweeted
Q4 is upon us. I write a Quarterly Outlook to create a plan for trading each quarter. This time, I’m taking it a step further.
The Q4 TG Macro Quarterly Playbook will be available to the public. It will include a recorded presentation of me going over the report. You can email me any questions you may have.
Want a glimpse of what’s inside?
There is a sample playbook on the product page:
tgmacro.com/quarterly-playbo…
Tick Syndicate retweeted
I know a great way for these two punchers to help fund the deficit
Great to welcome @jakepaul to the Treasury Department today.
Jake’s path from content creator to entrepreneur and professional boxer is a distinctly American story. 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
Tick Syndicate retweeted
CORRECTION: We Must Ensure Our Duopoly via Regulatory Capture.
CC @friedberg @Jason @chamath @DavidSacks @theallinpod
We Must Pace the Frontier: I’ve written a new essay on why the AI industry should slow down, with a three-part plan for doing so.
Anthropic is unilaterally committing to the first of these steps. We’ll provide third-party evaluators with permanent, employee-level access to our systems, so that they can verify adherence to our safety measures, report on incidents, and assess models’ alignment during training.
You can read the full post here: darioamodei.com/post/we-must…
Tick Syndicate retweeted
I will continue to upload an post commentary videos, trade recaps etc.
But this trade from a few months ago really shows how to read the tape, plus a live example of the trade
Tick Syndicate retweeted
$ES 8/10-8/14 Weekly Plan:
🔑Focus for me: Continue with price discovery upwards or take a breather to fill out low volume left behind last week?
Very top-heavy weekly profile from last week with most of the volume built b/w 7727-7780s area.
‼️Aside from weekly profile, I also included last week's market profiles with some thoughts on the auction as annotations. Hope that's helpful on how I am approaching this upcoming week using last week. Starts with Tuesday's RTH profile.
‼️LIS this week for me is: 7727-7742 zone.
🐂 Scenarios:
1⃣ The most bullish outcome would be MKT holds 7727 as low of the week and continues upwards trajectory. I can see this happen in 2 ways: 1. 7727 area immediately holds and responsive buyers show up right away. 2. LBAF of this zone to liquidate late longs and trap early shorts to fuel upside.
2⃣ A retest of prior ATH @ 7680-7694 zone. This area is also PWK 50% for extra confluence. Very normal for a retest and hold here.
3⃣ Fail to reclaim 7680 could lead to price testing PMTH HI zone: 7625-7640. This area saw very little volume during the 2 week balance from 7/5-7/12. MKT built some volume here last week before breaking higher this time. This general zone was also where MKT failed to reach prior ATH again and created the "lower high" on 6/15 that hadn't been broken until Tuesday 8/4 last week. To me this could be a clue for potential area buyers may be interested in holding if MKT comes down here.
4⃣ 7585-7608, loss of this zone is when I'd start to consider a bearish sentiment for short term.
📈Upside zones:
7843-7887
7945-7998
8080-8100
🐻Scenarios:
Caveat: As I mentioned above, I don't consider anything bearish unless MKT loses: 7585-7608 zone.
1⃣ PWKL zone: 7537-7550 would be next up if 7585 is lost.
2⃣ A short I'd strongly consider is MKT showing weakness in PWKH re-offer zone: 7805-7820.25.
3⃣ Break below and HOLD under: 7727 zone. Need to make sure buyers have been defeated and you don't get caught in a LBAF scenario. "Support --> Resistance"
‼️Warning: Trying to short b/c "no way it keeps going up" will result in frustration and emotional trading. DO NOT ENGAGE.
