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📢 ANNOUNCEMENT 📢
Full pick threads are moving to our Discord, split by league.
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🏈 tnf potd | tetairoa mcmillan at lambeau
🎯 Tetairoa McMillan OVER 71.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 1u
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the read ↓
🧠 THE READ ON TETAIROA MCMILLAN 🧠
- His median across six games this season is 80.5 receiving yards, and this line is 71.5. The log reads 40, 86, 192, 17, 101, 75 newest first, four of six over, and he takes a 36 catch, 511 yard line into tonight.
- The volume is his. He has 54 targets in six games, nine a night and the most on the team, and Bryce Young has thrown 36 or more passes in five of his six starts, so the looks keep coming his way.
- Sunday's 40 came in a 43-13 blowout where Carolina's starters were pulled late, and he still led the team in targets with six. Green Bay is without linebacker Zaire Franklin and Micah Parsons is still on the PUP list, so the pass rush and coverage he faces are both short a key piece.
Being straight with you: the 17 yard game in Cleveland shows the floor, and Carolina's line is patched on a short week with both left guards ruled out and Taylor Moton on IR. If Young gets hurried early, the deep shots that clear this number dry up.
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🏒 SABRES @ DUCKS | anaheim tries to snap a four-game home skid at honda center
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our 3 free nhl picks ↓
🎯 Total OVER 6.5 (-130) 1u
- Anaheim's 12 games have produced 80 total goals, 6.67 a night, and the Ducks' 3.58 goals allowed per game ranks 29th, so their baseline already sits above this number.
- The special teams gap points toward goals: Anaheim's power play converts 23.7% (9th) while Buffalo's penalty kill sits at 71.4% (25th), which turns every Sabres minor into a real scoring chance.
- Buffalo has not named a starter, and neither option has been a wall: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen carries a .866 save percentage and 3.56 GAA through nine appearances, and Colten Ellis was at .864 over three games before Tuesday's 23-save shutout in San Jose.
🏒 SENATORS @ KINGS | kings home off a 3-2 road trip, sens on a five-game swing
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our 3 free nhl picks ↓
🎯 Ottawa Senators ML (-110) 1u
- Ottawa arrives 8-5-0 with 39 goals in 13 games and a plus-1 differential, while the Kings are 3-6-2 and minus 9 with 28 goals in 11, close to a full goal a night of separation that a pick'em number does not reflect.
- Los Angeles is 0-3-0 at home this season, and its only goal in Tuesday's 2-1 loss in Chicago came from the fourth line.
- Ottawa's scoring runs deeper: Drake Batherson carries a five-game point streak with eight points into Thursday, and Tim Stutzle had 16 points in 12 games before the trip opened in Vegas.
🏒 CANUCKS @ SHARKS | neither side has a winning record or a plus differential
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our 3 free nhl picks ↓
🎯 Total OVER 6.5 (-130) 1u
- Vancouver has been outscored 65-43 across 14 games, 7.7 combined goals a night, and San Jose has given up 45 in 13 games of its own.
- With Thatcher Demko on injured reserve after hip surgery, Kevin Lankinen sat at a .786 save percentage through his first six appearances and Leevi Merilainen allowed five goals on 23 shots on Tuesday, so neither option has slowed anyone down.
- Jonathan Lekkerimaki has 4 goals and 3 assists over Vancouver's last five games, which means the Canucks bring enough scoring of their own to push this past 6.5 even if San Jose carries play.
🧈 jordan love vs bryce young at lambeau tonight 🏈
the discord is up and working now, every tnf pick lands in there first 👇
discord.gg/tzJx2UDN7h
🏒 ISLANDERS @ WILD | kaprizov brings 14 goals in 14 games home to st. paul
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our 3 free nhl picks ↓
🎯 Total OVER 5.5 (-120) 1u
- Minnesota has scored 44 goals in 14 games and the Islanders 36 in 12, a combined 6.1 per night at their current rates, which already clears 5.5 before either goalie has an off night.
- The Islanders' last two road games went 6-3 at Dallas and 4-3 in a shootout at Nashville after they led 3-0, so their own structure has been leaking goals on this trip.
- The Wild scored 12 goals across their last three wins at Seattle, Vancouver and Utah, and at four a night the Islanders only need two of their own to get this over.