Tkhostati

Russia’s fertility slump is no longer about a handful of problem regions. It is nationwide. Over the 21 months to September 2026, the total fertility rate (TFR) fell across most of the country compared with 2024 levels. The median change across regions is −4.85%. For the Caucasus, the number to watch is North Ossetia at −8.10%. That puts the republic among the ten steepest declines in Russia, and it is the only North Caucasus region in that group. The rest of the group is mostly Arctic and Far Eastern: the Nenets Autonomous Okrug (−17.93%), KhMAO (−11.98%), Amur (−11.13%), Sakhalin (−10.02%), Murmansk, Arkhangelsk, Khakassia and Tuva. The North Caucasus is still Russia’s fertility stronghold. In the first half of 2026, Chechnya (2.55 children per woman) was one of only two regions above replacement level, and the North Caucasus Federal District averaged just under 1.7. North Ossetia is moving the other way. An 8% drop in less than two years is a pace more typical of the Russian North than of the Caucasus.

Two key statements made by Acting President of South Ossetia Marat Kambolov ahead of the upcoming election. First, he said that every Ossetian should have the right to obtain South Ossetian citizenship. In other words, a passport should be granted on the basis of ethnic origin, regardless of whether a person was born in Syria, Russia, Turkey, or South Ossetia itself. By virtue of being Ossetian, a person should have the right to receive a South Ossetian passport. This reflects a concept shared by a significant part of Ossetian society: South Ossetia is a state for all Ossetians. The second key point outlined by Kambolov is that South Ossetia is not yet ready, either morally or from a security standpoint, to open the border with Georgia for the transit of goods. I believe both of these positions enjoy broad support among people in both South and North Ossetia.