Here for laughs and the very occasional useful insight. Tweets are not investment advice.
Joined June 2019
- Tweets4.8K
- Following873
- Followers190
- Likes14.7K
Justin Todd, KFCFA retweeted
A man who pioneered parallel processing cannot be expected to run a single thread
Justin Todd, KFCFA retweeted
“It’s fine to cheat on your wife because Elon is a Nazi” is… a take I guess
Justin Todd, KFCFA retweeted
Good to see there’s $11b of idiot money still out there willing to be torched
Justin Todd, KFCFA retweeted
“You know how to fund the hedge fund, you just don’t know how to hedge the hedge fund. And that’s really the most important part of the hedge fund. It’s the hedging” - Jerry Seinfeld
Justin Todd, KFCFA retweeted
I’m not so sure. Witness the debacle, the self inflicted wound that is nuclear energy. We basically shot ourselves in the head by abandoning new nuclear back in the 80s.
Justin Todd, KFCFA retweeted
Realizing that America is on an unsustainable path of fiscal spending regardless of which party wins the midterms
Justin Todd, KFCFA retweeted
The funniest moment for me is listening to a chips podcast with people who invest in chips and cover chips and they have this tenuous understanding of how $ASML works
Today’s guest is Timothy Arcuri, Managing Director at @UBS.
Timothy has been covering the semiconductor landscape for over 20 years. His expertise is unmatched.
From Micron to NVIDIA’s installed base, we discuss:
- Can power keep up with chip expectations?
- Who will pay a premium for faster inference
- Broadcom and building chips in house
- What Cerebras’s OpenAI deal means
- Where equipment and packaging create openings
- Political backlash and customer concentration
Timestamps:
Introduction
Can power keep up with chip demand?
From process engineering to Wall Street
Measuring AI demand and faster inference
How AI is changing semiconductor research
NVIDIA, AMD and Intel
Custom chips, Broadcom and MediaTek
Inference startups and Cerebras
Micron, HBM and the memory cycle
What long-term memory contracts change
Equipment, packaging and fab economics
Where new compute companies can compete
Cobots, humanoids and chip demand
Political backlash and customers
NVIDIA’s installed base in a downturn
Listen to the show, and follow along for new episodes every Tuesday.
Justin Todd, KFCFA retweeted
"If the kids had had bigger tits and looked more like a lizard I'd have given them some but they don't so Lauren gets it. She had to WORK for it, if you know what I mean".
This quoted post is unavailable.
Justin Todd, KFCFA retweeted
For roughly the same yield as treasuries, you could have a tenant call you at 3am demanding you pay for their stuff after they drunkenly set off the sprinklers.
Justin Todd, KFCFA retweeted
Hey, now, it's a shitty GPU reseller with a model nobody likes too that sells phones for virgins okay?
Justin Todd, KFCFA retweeted
I had Claude go through sell side reports, company filings, commentary etc. to build a rough supply/demand model for AI.
If you assume ~90% of TSMC incremental capex is leading edge, convert that into GW, convert that into tokens you get supply one way. Hyperscaler spending w/ a lag gives you another. The two aren't that dissimilar.
Demand is much harder to pin down. Can look at Google API traffic they report. Anthropic compute spend probably a low estimate since it reflect supply unlock rather than demand. Muse, Instinct, open source demand a little harder to pin down but they're additive.
Make adjustments to supply looking at chip specs over the next few years to turn GW into tokens.
Swing is probably demand more than supply. I assume for demand growth we just keep adding it at the same pace going forward but that mechanically slows growth. Accounts for penetration gains, but not really any new killer products.
Point is, we're short, we're going to get less short unless demand picks up. Generally markets getting less short is not helpful for their prices, but in this case, if token prices continue to fall as supply is unlocked, and that's passed on to consumers, the real key swing factor is Jevons and what degree of elasticity the market really has. Supply unlock could be bullish if it's high, could be bearish if it starts to taper off.
Justin Todd, KFCFA retweeted
Boomer parents will do this and then complain to the WSJ they just can't understand why their daughter excommunicated them and it's all her fault and she's ungrateful and insane.
