Remember when Bessent said he was the house now? Well he is getting murdered out here. And so are rates. We are in a death spiral. Sovereign debt crisis is incoming. Go home and hug your families.
I used to believe in the American dream.
Now I find it haunting. Where once it filled me with wonder, it lately fills me with dread.
$2,400 for a one-bedroom. $9 for eggs. $400k for a house that needs a new roof. A hospital bill for walking in the door.
My parents bought a home on one salary. I split a Costco membership with three friends.
I think I've realized the dream wasn't a promise. It was a limited-time offer, and it expired before I got there.
Sometimes you've got to go out and test these things, if only to turn right back around again. Now I am budget-bound, slowly, by way of roommates and Aldi, out to the land of COUPONS and SIDE HUSTLES.
Mortgage rates exceed 7% mark after over one-and-a-half years.
You will never own a home. BlackRock has full control of you now.
Do not pay off your fixed 3% mortgage in an inflationary environment. Do not do that under any circumstances.
I bought a house in 2021 for $500k.
It had a 3% interest rate.
Shortly after I got a divorce.
I then found Dave Ramesy and learned about financial independence.
Today I just paid the mortgage off.
I am free! No more debt for me!
Farmers are struggling. It looks like many are about to go under. The food supply is about to break if something doesn’t change.
The bond market is done for. No one is lending to the U.S. at current yields. This means yields are going higher. Market crash incoming. Inflation is going to tear through America.
Your grandfather bought a house on one income. Your father needed two. You need a roommate, a side hustle, and a parlay hitting. Same country. Same work ethic. Different money. Ask yourself what actually changed.
Life in America, 2026:
Go to work. 30% of your check gone to taxes before you see it. Another 10% quietly eaten by inflation.
Car breaks down. Roads crumbling. Bridges rusting. Nobody's fixing anything.
Walk outside and it's crime. Look around and everyone you know is sick and overweight, because 95% of the grocery store is poison in bright packaging.
Your friends are binge drinking, smoking every night, and dumping paychecks into sports betting and prediction markets.
Young women are on OnlyFans because rent costs more than a degree ever paid.
None of this is random. It's what a dying currency looks like.
When money loses value, people stop saving, stop building, stop believing in tomorrow, and start chasing the next hit.
There won't be one big crash.
It's death by a thousand cuts, and it's slow enough that most people won't notice until it's over.
U.S. diesel prices are above $6.50 for the first time in history as truckers go into complete panic mode, farmers lose the ability to make money harvesting their crops and the world enters into a death zone of potential food shortages. My god.
Affordability Crisis retweeted
GameStop $GME is one of the most misunderstood companies in the entire market. Wall Street has left the company for dead. Every sell side firm has dropped coverage and zero hedge funds will own this because of the former meme stock hair.
Now the stock trades dirt cheap with $5 billion of cash, $5 billion of ebay stock (10% of the entire company), $300 million of bitcoin and $2.8 billion of zero percent convertible debt.
You are buying the core business for $4.1 billion. The core business that has completely transformed itself into a highly cash generative card store.
Management has turned around the entire company and it is not a dying retailer anymore. It is a cash generative cash machine flipping Pokemon, Magic The Gathering and One Piece cards. Cards are one of the hottest markets in the entire world right now and Wall Street is asleep at the wheel.
Unit economics are stunning. There are 1,600 stores in the U.S. $1.9 million sales per store. 45% gross margins at the store level. Four wall EBITDA per store of $580k. This is a four wall margin of 30.6%. There is very little capex and inventory is mostly financed by vendors and there is a float business with the trade-ins with in-store credit zero percent debt.
Management is guiding to $650 million of EBITDA for the full year. They are sandbagging the number HARD. I am pulling data from ebay and GemRate and total Pokemon sales in August were up 30% m/m. The highest monthly sales ever recorded.
In addition, the 30th anniversary for Pokemon occurred on September 16th. It was the biggest coordinated Pokemon event in history. I went to a dozen of GameStop's and local card shops and they were all sold out. Lines out the door. The phone ringing off the hook. Wall Street is completely unaware that GameStop is flipping cards in size and has transformed their business model.
Finally, Q4 is the company's biggest quarter and there are more events for the 30th anniversary landing in the quarter. For the full year, I am modeling in excess of $850 million of EBITDA, $200 million ahead of management's sandbagged guide.
Management likely knows this. Ryan Cohen bought $20 million in the open market, and other C-Suite executives followed along with numerous buys, just days ago. And then the company announced they will be reopening stores, for the first time in many years. The payback on reopens should be less than a year.
I see the company trading at 4.7x EV/EBITDA, and over 90% of that EBITDA should convert into free cash flow, or a 20% free cash flow yield on the enterprise value. Wall Street is completely missing the story and asleep at the wheel with drool running down their big fat bellies.
There will likely be push back on the ebay acquisition, but I encourage everyone to actually dig into the deal. It could be transformative and there are many synergies that Wall Street idiots are missing. Wall Street suits have no idea how the card market has been gamified and turned into a lottery ticket system that has become extremely addicting on apps like Whatnot. In addition, Ryan Cohen is an All Star capital allocator and operator, an extremely rare combination, and a platform like eBay is right up his wheel house.
I built a website below that has a 34-deck slide, highlighting the thesis. Have fun and check out my analysis and website. I am long $GME and find the thesis asymmetric.
deepfuckingvalue.com
Diesel in Wisconsin has nearly doubled in a year, breaking its all-time record 7 days straight.
Farmers can't raise crop prices to compensate, so the hit comes out of seed, fertilizer, and the farm's future.
Nightmare for the food industry.