3/ once we have felt the immense amount of pain within the market, people will start wondering if we will ever rebound and that will be the sign of a bottom.
2/ there will be volatility into the new year. As much as we are battling with sticky inflation, Europe risk, etc., we could likely find some bottom within the first half of next year.
5/ If we do not enter a recession, it would mean that crypto bounces ~20%+ from here and equities would bounce 10% from here. Are these attractive levels? Yes, if your time horizon is long enough for equities. It will require a rebalance a year out.
3/ Hence, crypto assets will follow the flow of the M2 money supply. And, the expansion of the money supply requires a few items. It requires likely we will see some level of recession between now and 2026 and the injection of new capital will occur from the U.S. government.
2/ The halving for bitcoin is destined for 2024. And, we have seen that crypto markets are more correlated with traditional markets. Hence, data has shown that crypto usually reaches ATH ~2 years after a halving. This would be in the year 2026.
We are nothing - fighting for nothing.
If this was the case, would you change the way you lived life? We are living on a tiny rock in some undefined location in the universe.
I bonds interest rates are at 7.12%! The government is definitely anticipating a large pill of inflation.
