Solresearcher ⚡︎

Good morning, everyone. Today, I’m going to explain something to all of you in simple terms —something that no one else out there is currently explaining. Growth + easing financial conditions: the mix that has historically helped risk assets On the chart I put together four indicators plus one crypto ratio. This is not a precise timing signal. It is a snapshot of regime: when the economy holds up and financial conditions are easing rather than tightening, markets tend to reward risk. Crypto sits in that category. What is on the chart At the top: ETH/BTC, i.e. how much Ethereum is worth versus Bitcoin. Then the copper/gold ratio: copper lives on industry and real demand, gold on fear and protection. If copper starts outperforming gold again, the market is betting more on growth. Then NFCI and, to be read together with it, ANFCI (Chicago Fed). At the bottom: ISM Manufacturing PMI, the US factory purchasing managers’ index. In plain language ISM Manufacturing PMI tells you whether factories are expanding or contracting. Above 50 = expansion. In August 2026 it printed 54.6: an eighth straight month above 50. That is not a boom, but the manufacturing cycle is still growing. NFCI measures whether US financial conditions are tighter or easier than their historical average (credit, markets, banks, funding). A negative reading means easier than average. Latest print (week ending September 4): -0.56. ANFCI goes one step further: it strips out what is already explained by the economic cycle. It asks whether financial conditions are easier even relative to current growth and inflation. Latest print: -0.59. So this is not just “the economy is fine, therefore markets look calm.” Conditions remain easy even after adjusting for the cycle. One important note: this kind of setup can appear regardless of whether the Fed is cutting, hiking, or holding rates. NFCI and ANFCI are not the policy rate. They capture the whole financial environment: credit spreads, market volatility, funding, leverage, equity and debt conditions. Rates can stay unchanged, or even rise, and conditions can still ease. The opposite is also true: a rate cut does not automatically mean easier conditions if credit tightens and risk appetite fades. Copper/gold on the chart is trying to turn higher. That is a market signal, not an official statistic: when it rises, appetite for real activity and cyclical risk usually improves. Why the combination matters One piece alone is not enough. Growth with tightening credit can choke volatile assets. Easier conditions with a falling economy often push money into havens (dollar, gold, Treasuries). When activity holds (PMI above 50, copper/gold stopping its decline) and financial conditions are easing rather than tightening (NFCI and ANFCI both negative), liquidity tends to move down the risk ladder. Historically, that backdrop has been one of the more favorable setups for cyclical equities, riskier credit, and crypto. On the chart I highlighted similar phases in the past, especially around 2016–2017: PMI in expansion, easier financial conditions, copper/gold recovering. This is not an automatic replay. It is the same type of regime. What ETH/BTC is doing in this picture ETH/BTC is not “the whole crypto market.” It is an internal thermometer: when it rises, Ethereum (and often part of the alt complex) is outperforming Bitcoin. In broader risk-on periods, that ratio has had a better chance of breathing. The chart puts it in context: not because the ratio “must” explode, but because the macro backdrop is not tightening-plus-recession. What to watch next September ISM: if it stays above 52–53, the growth signal holds. NFCI and ANFCI (usually Wednesday; next update September 16): a further decline confirms easing; a jump toward zero challenges it. Copper/gold: if it rolls over again while gold runs on its own, the market is choosing defense once more. In short: an economy that is not breaking + financial conditions that stay easy (both NFCI and ANFCI in easing territory) is a recipe that, in recent history, has favored high-risk assets. The chart does not forecast the price of ETH or BTC. It describes the climate. And the climate, for now, is Risk-on.

I don’t know if this expansion will last until 2028; I believe the copper-to-gold ratio chart is already signaling how things will play out. Usually, a long, slow bleed culminates in something explosive and rapid, so I expect we’ll start seeing the first signs of trouble around the second half of 2027—but until then, things are going to get very wild.

The best part always comes after the mid-cycle correction.

Nice wedge here for solana:So11111111111111111111111111111111111111112

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The monthly chart for injective-protocol:native is one of the best out there.

At a macro level, altcoins are in the final stage of the "Depression" phase; we are about to emerge from it soon. What follows will be "disbelief"—you will come to understand what this disbelief looks like, as people will start talking about crypto again, but they will do so with a sense of insecurity.

On ethereum:native , a "rounding bottom" pattern is already beginning to emerge—a pattern that is also present on BTC.

Good morning – On the daily timeframe, bitcoin:native is about to confirm a bullish divergence ; furthermore, there is the possibility of two hidden bullish divergences, in addition to the fact that the price is refusing to close below the 100-day SMA. Looks like strength to me

I'm already starting to glimpse some anxiety in the Gold market. It is what it is, guys. Patience now—at least for the next 5 to 10 years.

GOLD top fractal 2011-2012- and the current PA .

The post below from July 5th will help you understand—take a look at it. This analysis i originated in late 2024, nearly two years later, it still holds its relevance. Gold will surrender, BTC will catch fresh air.

Good morning - On the 3-month timeframe for USDT.D, the stochastic RSI has crossed downward once again; on the last two occasions, this pattern signaled future growth for BTC. At the same time, the RSI should signal the continuation of a further instance of negative divergence.

There's a new Italian guy in town after 73 years, man this pic is so cold, grande Kimi !