philosophical arbitrage. dreaming new equilibriums.
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Joined December 2023
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bear market plan was to accumulate Q4 or after closing above the 50W moving average
looks like they may occur near simultaneously
didn't buy the bottom but sticking to the plan
decision time on gold soon. my best guess is dollar strength has legs and rates down isn't durable unless oil down, which is reliant on diplomacy.
spam the common shares ATM to 1mnav and sell a few % of BTC to retire this failed ponzi already
not sure how BTC is attractive here when he's in the midst of deleveraging and got bailed out by a debasement trade false start and trump shill
four year cycle intact, September down
Strategy has repurchased $176M of $STRC and increased the size of its Digital Credit Securities Repurchase Program from $1.0B to $2.0B. As of 9/7/26, we hold 845,050 $BTC and $6.5B of USD Assets. $MSTR
strategy.com/press/strategy-…
surprised how long it's been floating above 1.1x considering it's last two expansions got tapped down at 1.05x. l/s sized to the amplification ratio is good EV. I'm net short cause of bias but can even tilt long since the probability of expansion/contraction relates to direction.
been an ardent crypto bear for September so far but the way the majors are playing around their 4hr 200 SMA and EMA as support are part of what has me not pressing the short side hard
difficult to say if range lows or deviation spring vs full breakdown with the clarity act rejection and hike behind us, even if I'm leaning towards the latter
patient to try and play a breakdown or an eventual comfy long spot, with a bear bias for now, but no edge/conviction at the range lows relative to the range highs and waiting for price to develop
sitting in small size that I'd cut on clean reclaim and looking to jam a developing cascade and bid liquidations towards ~72k
BTC ETH SOL HYPE visual attached
main trade I'm keeping on is short euro dollar
ECB was one step ahead of Fed on hikes around the same time energy prices cratered
refined product scarcity + risk of export bans from US/China especially screws Europe heading into winter
yen expression is volatile and defended
BREAKING: The US is considering a ban on US diesel exports, with Senate Majority Leader John Thune telling reporters that "if we have the supply in this country and we're exporting it right now that might be one way of getting at it."
The US is the world's largest diesel exporter, at around 1.7 million barrels per day, mostly to Latin America and Europe, and Russia, the second largest, has already halted exports. A US ban would take the last large diesel exporter off a market where diesel in Germany has already reached €2.80 a liter this morning.
flattened book to head to China and Singapore for a few weeks
back in October looking for fresh longs with seasonality behind us
God is good, life is abundant, one love
woke up euphoric and was prolly a sign to tp but instead sat thru a disgusting intraday upnl eraser #conviction #investing #standwithisrael
