Given the surprise labor market data of a couple of weeks ago... I said I would give a flash after 2 weeks of August are in the books.
The key is to look at the very bottom row outside the table that combines July with Aug mtd.
The headline - employment earnings still looks slow and sluggish. We'll see how August finishes up in 2 weeks.
I wanted to wait for a couple of days after July month-end to post Federal tax withholding data to get around a small timing issue.
The last day of any month (for which tax amounts show up on the first business day of the next month + Mondays are typically big collection days).
2025 had Aug 1st on a Friday while 2026 had Aug 1st (actually 3rd) appear in the next month. So closing the month on Friday, July 31st would've penalized 2026 and made it look like a big drop in collections when actually its just timing.
Even so, with the benefit of this Monday and Tuesday's numbers - things are definitely weakening. I would categorize it as slowing based on numbers at the very bottom for 22 days (to get around the timing issue for comps).
FWIW.
This morning's 10-Q confirms what you had first heard here 3 weeks ago. $BRK bought back ~$7.2B of common stock in Q2+July (0.8% of common o/s).
A very positive development.
I haven't seen this $BRK tidbit picked up on, but buried inside Buffett's annual giving 13D disclosure is something very interesting...
sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/…
Using WEB's 13.2% economic ownership, it looks to me like the total $BRK share count (using equivalent B-shares outstanding) dropped almost 1% since last Q.
That is a notable pick-up in share repurchases & is at a level not seen since 2021. The pandemic was a period when Buffett was buying back shares at an annual pace of 3-5% which was the most aggressive buying in BRK history.
It appears the new regime under Abel is going to be perhaps more aggressive with excess capital returning back to shareholders. We'll see - but I'm hopeful and this is a welcome development.
Unexpectedly? Not if you know where to look .... 😎
I wanted to wait for a couple of days after July month-end to post Federal tax withholding data to get around a small timing issue.
The last day of any month (for which tax amounts show up on the first business day of the next month + Mondays are typically big collection days).
2025 had Aug 1st on a Friday while 2026 had Aug 1st (actually 3rd) appear in the next month. So closing the month on Friday, July 31st would've penalized 2026 and made it look like a big drop in collections when actually its just timing.
Even so, with the benefit of this Monday and Tuesday's numbers - things are definitely weakening. I would categorize it as slowing based on numbers at the very bottom for 22 days (to get around the timing issue for comps).
FWIW.
I wanted to wait for a couple of days after July month-end to post Federal tax withholding data to get around a small timing issue.
The last day of any month (for which tax amounts show up on the first business day of the next month + Mondays are typically big collection days).
2025 had Aug 1st on a Friday while 2026 had Aug 1st (actually 3rd) appear in the next month. So closing the month on Friday, July 31st would've penalized 2026 and made it look like a big drop in collections when actually its just timing.
Even so, with the benefit of this Monday and Tuesday's numbers - things are definitely weakening. I would categorize it as slowing based on numbers at the very bottom for 22 days (to get around the timing issue for comps).
FWIW.