biggest issue for market near term is Trump prob happy to see it crash now! He can blame D landslide...Trump market / put unwinding
people are wayyy underweighting the importance of Trump's rampant, offensive corruption and grift in this election
National exit (sample: 79,668) -- Importance of issues to your vote:
GOVERNMENT CORRUPTION
Crucial/Major - 90%
Minor/No factor - 10%
COST OF LIVING
Crucial/Major - 89%
Minor/No factor - 11%
IRAN WAR
Crucial/Major - 74%
Minor/No factor - 26%
IMMIGRATION ENFORCEMENT
Crucial/Major - 73%
Minor/No factor - 27%
AI & DATA CENTERS
Crucial/Major - 56%
Minor/No factor - 44%
this guy still can't admit how horribly horribly wrong he's been about Trump and the GOP. Zero accontability, par for the course for senior people in this industry
feel like any major dip in AI data center stocks prob a good buy. TBH I thought Elon building a gazillion GW was the biggest risk for the space in the coming years, no? Limiting supply is good! Not gonna cut all projects to zero
what a glorious night. Absolute disgrace of an admin / GOP, good riddance. If you thought Rs would do well tonight you live in a much bigger bubble than whatever you think libs live in lol
sentiment on data center / powered shells is hitting the same level as software in Q1 IMHO. GLXY ER / call is so disconnected from where stock is (just one example)...doubt it will move big until sentiment shifts but likely it does and most of these are much higher in 3-6 months
It's astonishing to think that if Trump had been President in the 1930s he would've just struck deals with Hitler and the Japanese and let them conquer their respective regions while accepting some dubious payoff in return. Beyond disgraceful
very bizarre to me that ABVX options price in ~0 chance of a buyout over the next 30 days or so. Now to Dec seems like the most likely window but what do I know
every day we hear that we are going to be wildly short power + compute and every day all the AI data center stocks get destroyed and trade at levels that assume significant overcapacity down the road (entirely possible but nothing else in the AI complex seems to assume this)
as just one example, ABVX Jan 150 calls traded > $25 in July post safety data rebound...and are now trading ~$2. Zero change to co-specific fundies, just entering what most would say is prime buyout window (now to Jan?), and you're down >90% if you bought those calls! Wild
Alcaraz / Shelton starting at ~11pm ET is absolutely ridiculous. What's the point here, to make sure the fewest people can watch the marquee match of the quarterfinals? Just no reason to schedule things like this, start others earlier or overlap matches
kind of insane that healthcare policy has almost completely disappeared from political discourse. When's the last time you saw a news cylcle about Rs vs Ds on different plans to address healthcare costs etc? It's like we all just collectively gave up
you know fintwit mostly hates this bc the investment mgmt industry is now 90% marketing + communication (writing) and minimal performance / substance...whereas Druck is the inverse
setting aside the QT point about who DSA may appeal to...can you imagine calling your friends' kids losers in public? Truly awful person. And of course he has nary a word to say about absolutely epic levels of corruption, grift and incompetence in the current admin he supports 😅
Many of the loser children of my wealthy friends who see no way to emulate the success of their parents, have gravitated toward Mamdani-ism and found community and a sense of purpose by rejecting capitalism as a way to cope with their own failure. Please note they have nor however rejected their trust funds or living subsidies while pursuing their “passions” in NGOs, dabbling in the arts or trying to invest their parents money in “VC”.
If you're even remotely surprised at the level of corruption / immorality / incompetence in this Trump term, time to accept you're a horrible judge of character.
Seen a lot of "I voted for Trump but didn't expect this!" in the investor community...like, what?!
random guess (obviously) but could see market ripping into Fall. Big potential for the AI / non-AI groups to stop being -1 corr and rally together now that some software/other fundies have been resilient for a few Qs while OAI + Ant accelerate and MAGS have lots of room to run
Admin (and Fed by extension) have every incentive to run things hot and pump into midterms, and not let Iran get out of hand. Of course Iran is a big caveat so if that blows up all bets are off, but easy to play (or layer on) upside via option structures to limit tail risk
crazy not to make the World Cup every 2 yrs. They already have Euro / Africa / Copa etc tourneys during the other even years, why not just consolidate those, expand WC field to 64? Among many other reasons, just silly that e.g. US won't even host again for what, 25-30 more yrs?