Jakub Warmuz

adding ‘highly persistent internal model’ to my dictionary of favorite terms, right next to ‘highly profitable trading strategies’

the twyne lending market trifecta is now complete

awesome development, allowing defi users to hedge against the exploit risks which historically have been difficult and expensive to insure against

we are just a few months away from crypto becoming cool again

Can we use System One models for DeFi risk management? 🤖 Some of the recent Jev demos inspired me to point one at a workflow we use at @twynexyz. When we want to understand the protocol's risk under different market conditions and parameters, we run an agent-based model. We let a bunch of simulated borrowers and credit LPs loose in the system and watch what breaks, and when. Seeing where and how it fails helps us make better calls on the core mechanics and on parameters like interest rates and liquidation thresholds. Traditionally, these agents run on simple heuristics or hand-coded probability distributions: a fixed price expectation, some sensitivity to rates, a static risk appetite, a timer for how often they check their portfolio. It's cheap to compute and gives us some signal, but it's far from how people actually behave. Real users aren't rational robots. They get scared, they get greedy, they copy their peers, they overreact to news and change strategy halfway through. Encoding that with explicit math gets messy fast. So what if we described user archetypes in plain language instead, like "risk-averse borrower who watches sentiment" or "high-leverage borrower who reacts to macro news", and let a System One model make the calls? Agents could act on much richer context: what their peers are doing, their broader goals, even market-moving headlines. That could surface emergent behavior and feedback loops that are hard to encode by hand but could break the system in the real world. For this first experiment I used @fastinoAI's GLiNER2.5-Decide, running locally on my MacBook Pro. It isn't trained for this kind of task, but it was good enough for a proof of concept. In the video, three agents start with identical ETH vaults and ride the same synthetic rally and reversal. Same model, only the persona prompt differs.

hey opus, can you review sol's pr that implements fable's plan that was a result of my discussion with astra? 😵‍💫

just tried onboarding to an ai assistant product. i gave it a brief on the setup i currently have and asked it if it can offer anything better. the answer was no and paradoxically that made me want to try it out more than before! at least i know the system can be honest and think critically which gives me evidence that i can trust it probably not the best growth tactic but it shows how important eq will be for this category and i think its going to be super hard to nail down, partly because every customer might have a different definition of what a good interaction looks like

our mission to unlock idle capital on lending markets has just began and we couldn’t have asked for better partners to support us. job’s not done

I wish more billionaires were engaging in projects like this. Long Now is such an inspiration and their coffee shop in marina is a must visit

The biggest protocol in DeFi is now looping on Twyne. Lido's EarnUSD is running a PT-srUSDe × USDe carry trade on our protocol. This strategy allows for a maximum of 24x leverage, printing around 30% APY atm. The risk is not fundamentally different to running the same loop on Aave, with the major difference being that Twyne’s credit delegation mechanism allows for 2x leverage (and by extension yield). We could not think of a better partner to showcase the efficiency of what we've built at Twyne. The Ethena x Strata x Pendle x Aave x Lido x Mellow x Twyne is a beautiful money lego and we can't wait for more people to access these strategies. We've recently crossed $10M TVL and hope to be adding to that number soon. DMs open in case of any questions. And get your hands on that yield before the big boys fill the caps!

twyne’s at $8M and u still bearish?

Go and try an amazing product from an amazing friend

adding ‘it’s outside of my J space’ to my vocabulary

great explainer from @stablecoin_p

funny enough boski is also a word i’d use to describe woj (godly) boski is my new best friend and he should be yours too